The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Surging from 2895.00 after Europe’s opens had extended well above the long-awaited likely test of 2902.00, probing its room for noise up to 2911.00 by 1 point. The post-open surge attacking 2915.00 held up high enough for long enough to suggest that any reversal would be relatively shallow and temporary. In fact, its reaction down did hold a 38.2% retracement of the open’s gap, natural support. Being a Friday and failing a reversal attempt during the morning’s bias environment, the window’s exit firmed. Reversing back up through the afternoon’s bias environment was resisted by 2911.00 until the very last-minute blipped-up to 2913.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up, too, attacking 2914.00. But that was only the high of a sideways range that has persisted through midnight and Europe’s opens. The range’s lower-end has held multiple touches and pierces of 2910.00 as support. And now 2914.00 is being retested.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s new trend high close, being a Friday, all but requires at least an eventual higher close. Not necessarily immediately today. Initially probing higher would still be vulnerable to a corrective dip, whether intraday or multi-session. More so, only having ranged sideways overnight, initially probing higher OR lower would be likely to reverse back into the overnight range. Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught continues.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2915.00 would be likely to trigger the 2914.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2908.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying into two overnight retests of Monday night’s 2900.00 high had preceded Thursday’s 2898.00 open. But the opening hour ranged sideways to signal a Dry Cleaners morning. The morning bias environment’s exit collapsed under it 2891.50 low to 2885.50, and then only ranged sideways through the afternoon bias environment’s exit. The final hour bounced back up to 2893.50, which was too late and too shallow to confirm momentum had reversed back up. It was the seventh consecutive session of intraday ranging, supported at or above 2880.00 or 2886.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming a little further through the Globex open attacked 2896.00. Ranging sideways through midnight continued attacking 2896.00. Not until after Europe’s opens did the range break, which it did with a vengeance. China economic and monetary developments triggered a spike up to 2900.00, which extended up to 2906.00. And now a consolidation there has resolved up to attack 2909.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Fresh highs above 2900.00 remained likely as each of this week’s downlegs was weak-handed, and also each downleg was retraced. But is this only an obligatory probe of fresh highs. Extended narrowing ranges become vulnerable to breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. So, fresh highs are vulnerable to reversing down, from anywhere in the 2902.00-2911.00 range. Not reversing down already through the open, at least as a warning shot, would become more vulnerable to extending in that direction — especially this being a Friday. And this being a Friday, reversing overnight strength early enough would be likely to reverse down sharply.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2904.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2902.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2898.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2895.75 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up 4-5 points Wednesday to 2787.75 didn’t ensure trending up. Or snapping back down. Gapping up did foreshadow a bullish resolution to ranging choppily sideways until the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. The resolution wasn’t immediate, and it was as choppy as the earlier range. But the day’s second stage did eventually break higher touched the 2894.25 61.8% retracement of the gap back up to Monday’s close. A 5-point reaction down spiked back up at the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Like yesterday’s second stage, choppiness has persisted, and it has resolved up. Wednesday’s last-minute spike up had continued firming through the Globex open, extending to touch 2900.00. That was a retest of Monday night’s high, where price had reacted down 7 points. Last night’s reaction down was 8 points, which has already extended lower after bouncing into Europe’s opens. But at 2890.00, another bounce began, its recovery now touching the earlier 2900.00 high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: There’s no “unfinished business” above, as 2902.00 is only likely to be touched. If anything was required, it was to reward Tuesday’s buyers for absorbing Tuesay’s late weak-handed pre-open drop to 2880.00 with a return to the drop’s origin. That was 2900.00, and that was tested overnight, twice. Its intraday test would be more satisfying, as would a test of 2902.00 or higher, which now seems like only a formality. If/Whenever 2902.00 is tested, the pattern remains vulnerable to reversing down intraday — suddenly, steeply, and substantially. Avoiding a reversal down or limiting its depth and duration could next target 2928.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2897.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2895.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2904.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2902.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2911.00.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pre-open drop from its overnight range had originated suspiciously close to the open. But it was productive, breaking under the range’s 2893.00 low into the 2885.00-2887.00 open, and through it to 2880.00. Bottoming almost immediately began retracing up to 2891.00 during the noon hour. But that was reversed back down to last-minute probe to fresh lows attacking 2877.00. The close was a quick reaction up to 2882.50-2884.00. Several quick reactions interrupted several late probes to fresh lows, preventing each other from gaining traction in either direction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly sideways up to 2884.00 tried collapsing but stopped 3 ticks short of Tuesday’s last-minute low at 2878.00. Apparently that stretched the rubber band deeply enough, as its snap back up recovered above 2884.00 by midnight and attacked 2889.00 by Europe’s opens. Ranging narrowly sideways again since then has maintained positive territory, and just now broke higher to probe 2891.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There was a lot of pessimism at yesterday’s close, without gaining traction that would require extending down. This doesn’t confirm yesterday’s late pre-open break was sponsored by weak hands. We’ll know that if that pre-open break is retraced entirely — now just 3-5 points higher. Similarly, retracing the late break won’t require extending any higher, regardless of the outstanding attraction of fresh highs at 2892.00. Even if we knew with 100% certainty that fresh highs would be probed, today, nothing prevents post-open weakness that saves fresh highs for a reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Shortly before the open, ECB events are a reliable catalyst for volatility and choppiness. Already testing 2902.00 before FOMC Minutes would be vulnerable to reversing back down, notwithstanding an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction and the room for noise up to 2911.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2884.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2886.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2894.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2891.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s probe above Friday’s 2897.00 high up to 2899.50 was shallow but complex, and qualified as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. That didn’t prevent reversing back under the 2896.00 earlier Globex low to form a bearish Globex-flip. A very early post-open entry rode an 8-point collapse, to within 1 tick of the 2894.00 bias-down target, while the balance of the morning held its 2895.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Absorbing the morning’s Globex-flip would be rewarded by retesting the overnight high, which was retested into the close the 2899.50. Monday’s close also fulfilled the eventual new trend high close that became required as of Friday.

Overnight action’s new info…
It was close, but no cigar. But it was already close after Monday’s session. Sideways ranging at Monday’s highs ended early when Asia’s opens touched 2900.00 and quickly reacted back down to 2893.00. The reaction down ended early, too. Sideways ranging persisted through midnight and Europe’s opens, and only now has begun firming to attack 2898.00. Meanwhile, neither bias signal has been touched.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The rally’s next higher objective at 2902.00 remains outstanding, and likely — but not required, and not required to be maintained if met. Room for noise up to 2911.00 might also be utilized, but not necessarily. Otherwise, there is once again no “unfinished business” above helping to ensure a recovery. from another intraday dip. Not like yesterday, which had just added a “new Globex trend extreme” to the requirement for another new high close. I’m still going to be reluctant to sell an immediate reaction down instead of buying it for the likely test of 2902.00. Having said that, there’s no bullish reason to revisit yesterday’s 2884.00 low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2894.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2891.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2894.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2902.00 bias-up signal.