The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
No “unfinished business above” outstanding as of Wednesday’s close for a second consecutive session left the market vulnerable, and a retest of Wednesday’s 2818.00 high was reversed down overnight to 2806.25. Thursday’s opening bounce attacked 2813.00 and quickly reversed down sharply to fresh lows at 2800.25. But the morning’s 2804.00 bias-down target held. In fact, 2804.00 held repeatedly throughout the choppy session. The morning’s recovery to its 2811.00 bias-down signal was retraced to 2804.00 after noon (amid Trump’s interest rate comments). And another recovery to the afternoon’s 2813.25 bias-up signal was retraced to 2804.00, firming a couple of points into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wild. Globex continued firming innocently from Thursday’s late drop and got up to 2810.50. China’s devaluation took great and immediate effect, triggering a plunge to 2793.50. Reacting up had trended through Europe’s opens amid Italian dept drama, returning to Thursday’s 2806.00 close. Trump’s wider tariff threat in response to China took great and immediate effect, triggering a plunge to 2793.00. Reacting up has retraced 61.8% of the plunge to 2801.50 — back within yesterday’s range, again

If, then…
Trending any lower through Friday’s open would have set the tone for extending the drop either to 2791.25 or 2781.00 and 2775.00. Coming so close overnight (twice) to the closer target doesn’t make the farther target any likelier. More important will be whether 2791.25 is yet tested during a timing window, and then whether its test had held through that timing window’s exit. That’s if the overnight bearishness persists through the open — expiration open, which can be surprising — which is currently indicated above yesterday’s lows where an Isolation setup could trigger. It also doesn’t necessarily affect the afternoon’s bearish WedEX, although its influence may be exacerbated.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2794.25 at 9:45 would be likely also to exceed the 2795.50 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2799.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2802.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2805.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Dipping overnight into Wednesday’s open extended down to Tuesday’s noon hour low, and held the morning’s 2807.75 bias-down signal. The offsetting test of its 2816.00 bias-up signal attracted price higher. Tuesday’s highs were probed up to 2818.00 as the noon hour began, and again as the session ended, with an interim dip to 2813.00. The close was still testing 2816.75, and not exceeding it which would have put into play higher objectives. No higher targets or objectives are in-play. WedEX triggered passive-bearish, for having held relevant resistance without creating higher unmet targets.

Overnight action’s new info…
Doomed to failure was apparently delayed to failure. Wednesday’s reaction down from retesting 2818.00 extended down to attack 2814.00 at the Globex open, then returned to 2818.00. Dipping back down to 2814.00 a second time didn’t hold, and has trended back down to probe yesterday’s 2806.75 low by 2 ticks.

If, then…
Gapping up and extending above 2818.00 seems to be off the table, so the bearish WedEX won’t be adjusted. But opening under 2809.00 can adjust the passive signal by proxy to active. Opening under 2809.00 and recovering it through the open would be bullish for the WedEX signal, which won’t be influential until tomorrow afternoon. and also bullish for this morning to at least probe above 2818.00. Otherwise, a bearish morning will depend upon whether the open tests only 2809.00 or also yesterday’s 2806.75 low, and then whether the test holds.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2809.00 would be likely to trigger the 2811.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2814.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Target-to-target; we don’t see these sessions often. Monday night’s drop to test 2790.00 was essentially the morning’s bias-down target. Its reaction into and out of the open avoided triggering the bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of its bias-up signal. The morning’s momentum persisted through the noon hour to trigger the afternoon’s bias-up signal, whose 2816.75 target was fulfilled to within 4 ticks at session highs. That also represented the room for noise above the rally’s 2813.00 objective. The close was back under it, but still above the 2809.00 objective whose Sunday night test had held.

Overnight action’s new info…
Closing back under the intraday test of 2813.00-2816.75 robs the rally of its momentum, but doesn’t reverse it which had required closing under 2809.00. This is now exemplified by the overnight sideways range. Attacking 2810.00 into Tuesday’s close was soon recovered to pierce fresh highs to within 1 tick of 2816.75. Gradually reacting down since then has again attacked 2810.00. .

If, then…
Having lost its momentum, resuming the rally Wednesday morning all but requires gapping up. Not gapping up doesn’t necessarily default to reversing down. But reversing down is likelier if not gapping up, and makes intraday rally efforts likely to fail. Meanwhile, this is day-two of the Fed Chair’s congressional testimony. It rarely duplicates day-one. Price action already discounts comments as if they’ll be repeated the second day. Often, the Fed Chair walks-back various comments that were misinterpreted or overly discounted. All of which will make for an interesting WedEX reading at the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2818.00 would be likely to trigger the 2816.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2810.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2807.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s drop to 2795.00 was signaled by the Globex setup — reversing an overnight probe of fresh highs up to 2709.00 to open back under the 2803.75 earlier overnight low. The morning remained under bearish pressure. The bias-down signal narrowly avoided being touched or triggering, so no other objective above or below was put into play. And later tests of the bias-down signal throughout the morning were absorbed. Positive territory held as resistance to a noon hour bounce, but the bounce’s failure only attacked the morning’s low. One more bounce stopped short of signaling a hold-long, and the cash session ended at 2800.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping up to 2801.25 after the cash session close was reversed sharply down to 2795.00 as news leaked of AMZN web site problems and NFLX reported earnings difficulties. Globex initially recovered to retest 2801.25, suggesting that participants view the AMZN/NFLX problems as localized to the companies. Reversing back down into and out of Europe’s opens to a fresh low at 2790.50 may be suggesting that ripple effects are coming anyway (I expand on this in the Market Tour recording). Bouncing to 2797.75 has reacted down almost entirely back to the low.

If, then…
Having probed overnight under yesterday’s low, opening back above yesterday’s low and holding it as support could Isolate overnight sellers. The potentially bullish setup may be the only alternative to extending yesterday’s intraday weakness today with potential down to 2781.25. So, triggering bias-down, or not, may tell us everything about the balance of today’s session.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2792.50 would be likely to trigger the 2794.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s last-minute 2801.00 high was still overlapping Tuesday’s prior high, but not rejecting it. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2804.00. Friday’s flat open dipped just enough to test the 2793.50 bias-down signal. Its reaction soon extended to fresh highs testing 2806.00, and soon peaked. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2801.00-2806.00. Thursday’s touch of February’s 2800.75 pivotal high was not rejected, confirming the attractions above to ate last 2809.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to 2809.00 and ranged narrowly sideways. Tests of 2804.00 as support held through Europe’s opens, but an attempt to resume the earlier rally has been rejected by fresh overnight lows down to 2802.25. Its reaction up tested 2804.00 as resistance and has reversed down to fresh lows at 2800.50.

If, then…
An overnight probe above the prior session’s high has threatened to reverse back under the earlier overnight low. The differential between high and low is relatively narrow, but sufficient to trigger a downtrending morning. Probing the earlier overnight low post-open but then recovering it could resolve as bullishly as its failure would have been bearish. And then retesting the 2809.00 overnight high or probing it up to 2813.00-2816.75 would be likely before becoming vulnerable again to reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2807.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2809.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2804.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2797.75 bias-down signal.