The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
China trade and Brexit probably helped Friday’s opening gap up to 2836.00, testing 3-day old highs by 1 point. But only momentarily as price began dipping to test 1-day old highs down to 2823.00. Quarter-end portfolio window dressing probably supported flat-to-higher ranging up to 2834.00 through late-afternoon. Blipping-up into the last 90 minutes to 2840.00 was retested after the close, which was otherwise still overlapping the opening print.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up above the bias-up signal to 2844.50 and spiked higher immediately through the bias-up target to attack 2854.00. Trending higher touched 2860.00 and reacted back down to 2854.50 through midnight. A fresh high up to 2861.25 has also reacted back down to 2854.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s equilibrium close and ineffectual optimism could be overcome only by gapping up. The reward would be to retest two-week old highs, at least up to 2855.00, probably also the gap-fill back to the 2861.00-2863.00 high close, if not also to probe the two-week old 2866.00 prior high (to 2869.00). All but the latter was done overnight. Which makes a second consecutive close back above 2019.50 less significant to rejecting the week-old bearish trend change: Gapping up to resistance instead of trending there is difficult to attract reinforcements, and upside momentum is jeopardized by touching resistance without also exceeding it through a timing window. Regardless, closing back under 2013.00-2019.50 Monday isn’t necessary to confirm the trend is reversing down, but shouldn’t be far behind if the two-week old distribution pattern — of reversing intraday rallies — confronts Monday’s rally attempt. Wouldn’t THAT be the perfect April Fool’s Day prank.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2853.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2848.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2842.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wide swings greeted Thursday’s open, and persisted intraday. Wednesday night’s initial 15-point drop had recovered 20 points to greet the open back at Wednesday’s 2815.50 last-minute high. Extending even further into positive territory tested 2824.00, too late to be strong-handed while also fulfilling the bias-up target — not exactly a formula for stability. A collapse to 2802.50 bottomed during the noon hour, and was largely retraced to close back at 2819.50 resistance.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sideways ranging has suddenly come alive. Eking higher into the Globex open had found resistance at this morning’s 2823.00 bias-up signal. A brief consolidation soon spiked up to within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2829.75 bias-up target, and then repeated the reversals at least twice through the night. The most recent dip testing 2823.00 had come within 2 points of the 2820.25 earlier Globex low when suddenly Brexit headlines rescued the potential failure. Combined with optimistic trade talk, a 30-minute surge is probing Wednesday and Thursday morning highs up to 2834.25.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This week’s wide, choppy ranging is now bumping into the hard deadline of weekend illiquidity. Overnight action had formed much of a bearish Globex-flip pattern by retracing its probe above yesterday’s high. That organic pattern is suddenly replaced by an upleg thanks to the Brexit headlines artificial catalyst. Headline reactions are often retraced, at least by 61.8%, but that will be moot if not yet done through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Retracing it in time could extend down through the morning, but holding the surge up could more likely attract post-open reinforcements. Friday Factors of impending illiquidity could produce a close above 2827.00 to insert a detour from realizing the effects of last week’s massive distribution. The same Friday Factors could produce severe downside consequences if this overnight surge becomes a rubber band that snaps back down through the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2825.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2823.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.00 would be likely to exceed the 2829.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wide overnight swings up to 2832.00 and down to 2814.50 had preceded Wednesday’s opening surge back up to 2831.00. Which led to another wide, choppy round-trip, as last week’s strong-handed distribution resumed. This stage is less patient, as seen in Wednesday’s late-morning collapse to attack 2791.50. The low stopped optimistically short of touching Monday’s ~2790.00 lows before a bounce tested and retested 2813.00 resistance into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Another multi-directional night. Dipping into Wednesday’s 2810.00 cash session close barely hesitated extending lower through the Globex open to touch 2795.00. All of which was retraced into Europe’s opens. A reaction there has recovered to probe positive territory. But at this point, 4-5 points into positive territory and attacking 2814.50 has yet to touch yesterday’s late 2816.25 high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering from a dip is the basis for accumulation. But, accumulation by whom? By weak-hands, if they can’t recover the retracement back above a relevant resistance and through a relevant timing window. Last night’s dip didn’t probe yesterday’s low, but it was deep enough that its recovery would put buyers on offense for the morning. The line in the sand for qualifying as a recovery is only being attacked, and it’s meanwhile resistance, so sellers will have the chance for a fresh start through the open. And with the weekend approaching, either resuming the decline or invalidating it by attempting to close back above 2827.00 should start becoming obvious.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2806.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2803.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2816.25 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s rally and Tuesday’s opening surge to 2835.00 created room for the balance of the session to expend selling pressure without yet resuming the decline. The session high was a 61.8% retracement back to Thursday’s 2863.00 high from Monday afternoon’s 2789.50 low, which is natural resistance. Trending back down through the afternoon bias environment fell to 2808.50. Which is a lot of selling pressure to have expended until so late in the day, without yet probing back into negative territory. That’s usually too late to suddenly turn negative. And as expected, the last 60-90 minutes bounced back up. The close was unchanged from the 2823.00 open, a setup that reflects equilibrium.

Overnight action’s new info…
Today’s volatility should be healthy if anything like the two significant overnight moves that developed already. After an initial dip from Tuesday’s close touched 2818.00, yesterday’s late bounce resumed. It extended back up through into Europe’s opens to attack 2832.00. A 7-point reaction down tried to recover, but that collapsed down to 2817.00. Positively diverging RSIs at the 2817.50 bias-down signal slowed the drop, but only briefly as the decline is resuming to touch 2814.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Had it been maintained, the earlier overnight rally would have been on-track for extending to 2846.00 and possibly 2852.00. But its complete reversal back down into negative territory suggests that yesterday’s correction day has ended. Resuming the decline would structurally target fresh lows under 2790.00, and calculably target 2770.00 in an aggressive manner if last week’s distribution is advancing to the next stage.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2819.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2817.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Already probing fresh lows Sunday night, Monday’s session developed overwhelmingly in negative territory. The overnight attacks on 2790.00 were repeated Monday morning and and Monday afternoon. Between overnight and intraday dips, 2-3 drops and recoveries represent 2-3 accumulative efforts. None of which ended above a relevant resistance, holding tests of Sunday night’s 2813.00 open in the morning, and the last 60-90 minutes bouncing to test Friday’s 2806.00 close. The last bounce was the consequence of no-bias trending that expended maximum selling pressure without gaining traction for the effort. The reaction up rescued the session from collapsing to fresh lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late bounce extended higher almost uninterrupted to retest Monday morning’s highs, coming within 1 tick of this morning’s 2817.25 bias-up target by midnight. Reacting back down tested and retested 2809.50 before and after Europe’s opens. The last reaction up has now extended to fresh highs at 2822.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Gapping up Tuesday above relevant resistance like 2819.50 (being probed now up to 2822.50) could serve by proxy to trigger the recovery that Monday morning had twice attempted. Now having closed twice under the 2813.00-2819.50 prior lows, bouncing back above it wouldn’t damage the decline’s chart. Even then, recovering above 2830.75 would be a challenge. Whether testing higher resistance first, or just resuming the decline, the pattern remains likely to resolve down, and to extend. A bearish morning (and then day) is still possible, but requires reversing down soon to at least avoid triggering bias-up.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2819.50 would be likely to exceed the 2817.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2813.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2811.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.