The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s widening swings around 2737.50 had greeted Friday’s expiration open on a downswing to 2722.25. One more upswing persisted into the noon hour and extended up to 2754.75, fulfilling the rally’s next 2753.00-2757.00 objective. Yet another downswing fell to 2726.00 and the balance of Friday afternoon narrowed its range around 2737.50. This enabled the afternoon’s bullish WedEX to be considered only nominally influential, if dismissing the final 3 minutes.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night initially firmed to attack 2748.00. Reversing down extended through the night and into Monday’s holiday morning to 2719.50 before recovering to 2733.00 into the early close. Firming another 2 points into last night’s open briefly tested 2735.00 before returning back into a range contained above Monday morning’s lows. A downleg underway into Europe’s opens has broken to fresh lows at 2709.00, now consolidating in a wide range back up to yesterday morning’s 2719.50 low… Bitcoin meanwhile has all but ignored my 10,225-10,500 target for launching a corrective downleg. The area held initially, but was exceeded by $1,000. Its reaction down used my target area as support to consolidate the pullback, which has resolved up to fresh highs testing 11,600.

If, then…
The open is indicated to gap down. WedEX influences regular trading hours behavior, so gapping down is irrelevant. Friday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t trend down, and it ultimately absorbed dips. This behavior barely qualifies as remaining vulnerable to rallying sharply at the next regular open. But it qualifies. That said, even the most obvious influence on Friday still would require evidence coming out of Monday’s open. Initial strength would get every benefit of the doubt for extending through the morning. Otherwise, the morning would be free to trend down with potential to 2701.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2717.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2722.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2725.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2729.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The past week has been marked with some meaningful recoveries. They began last Friday afternoon when the morning’s 60-point plunge rallied 110 points. They include Wednesday’s 49-point pre-open CPI-plunge that was retraced during the first hour and reversed up 70 points. Their last instance was Thursday morning’s 29-point drop which then rallied 55 points. The last one began from gapping up, so buyers have grown less patient. Two consecutive afternoons have rallied when they could have afforded to refuel the rally by backing-and-filling, also reflecting less patient buyers. Meanwhile, a second consecutive higher close above 2684.00 makes 2753.00-2757.00 even likelier.

Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended higher overnight in two distinct legs. Their reactions suggest a third upleg is needed soon to avoid reversing down. Thursday’s late surge firmed 6 points into and out of the 2732.00 cash session close to attack 2738.00. Then price action narrowed to a 6-tick (ticks, not points) range for several hours. A momentary surge after midnight reacted down to pierce the earlier overnight high down to 2732.50 — keep an eye on that level. A more considered extension to fresh highs attacked 2647.00 and also reacted down, attacking 2736.00. So far, still hovering back above yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Call it a domino effect. Wednesday’s close above 2684.00 and Thursday’s close above 2698.00-2700.00 have put into play the next higher objective at 2753.00-2757.00. The higher objective seems to be intact and even in-play for today with overnight action trending up and this afternoon becomes yet to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. But be aware that a session-long signal can still invert the WedEX influence. I wouldn’t bother addressing that this morning, if not for overnight action having pierced the earlier Globex low (described above). Exiting the open under it would form the same sell signal that had triggered at the Jan 29 top to point lower through the following morning. At least that instance could have been contained to that morning, but today’s expiration is usually a session-long influence. Otherwise, the bullish WedEX influence could still be greeted lower if those dominoes that point higher test 2753.00-2757.00 early, which could quickly become more like a house of cards.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2744.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2740.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2738.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2732.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2726.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s pattern was a twisted version of the template that was developing well before its open. Tuesday’s rally had essentially targeted 2673.75, which was fulfilled overnight, essentially targeting 2684.00 and a failure from there. Pre-open CPI triggered a 49-point plunge to 2627.00 that could have been an accelerated version of the template. It wasn’t. All of the plunge was retraced during Wednesday’s first hour, and later exceeding 2684.00 targeted 2698.00-2700.00 that was probed up to 2701.75 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s extended rally had developed after already fulfilling its renewed bias-up target. Not exploiting the opportunity for a refueling pullback had created the vulnerability, opportunity and likelihood for overnight weakness. No such thing. Wednesdsay’s late range persisted briefly down to 2693.50 before resuming the rally, which has extended up to 2719.50. An 11-point pullback  bounced bacl into resistance at this morning’s 2713.50 bias-up target, which has pushed back and extended down to 2705.00.

If, then…
January’s highs require an eventual retest, making the decline a temporary correction, or at least the first downleg of a more substantial decline. Meanwhile, that decline’s current retracement is a temporary correction of that first downleg, still needing to retest last Friday’s low regardless of the substantial interim bounce. Retesting the low sooner rather than later can still hold and launch a more significant recovery. But extending this week’s rally starts making the high’s retest likelier first. Expect the market to behave accordingly, with more dissenting opinion like yesterday’s pre-open CPI-reaction plunge — with or without a quick and complete recovery, the difference being predictive. Meanwhile, a gap down isn’t indicated, needed as a proxy for inverting the bullish WedEX to bearish. So, unless today’s pre-open reports were to trigger a repeat of yesterday’s CPI plunge, the next higher objective may be 2753.00-2757.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2715.25 would be likely to exceed the 2713.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2709.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2703.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2698.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s pullback had held repeated tests of Tuesday morning’s 2637.50 bias-down target. The tests all held, as did its retest at Tuesday’s open. The morning’s 2645.50 bias-down signal held repeated tests as resistance, too — including at 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias and warn of a choppy environment. It persisted through the noon hour’s exit which surged 9-11 points to 2666.50. Another choppy environment persisted through the close, barely measuring 10 points at its widest. The likelihood for rewarding the morning’s accumulation with a probe above Monday’s high to 2673.75 was never fulfilled.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s choppy range persisted through midnight, at about half the width. Already firming back up to Tuesday’s highs suddenly surged into Europe’s opens, which was greeted at 2677.50. Its reaction down to 2670.00 has since developed a range narrowing around 2673.75.

If, then…
Having tested 2673.75 overnight, only sponsorship’s momentum and restrained optimism inhibit reversing down. Momentum is defined by the rally’s higher highs and higher lows, which remain intact. Restrained optimism is limiting the follow-through of surges. A post-open surge would maintain the series of higher highs and higher lows if it can limit both its follow-through and its reaction down. But not even surging post-open would be vulnerable to losing intraday momentum that attracts pessimistic selling. This ongoing rally from Friday afternoon’s lows still qualifies as being only a temporary correction, so it can’t afford deep pullbacks, or much delay between surges. Greeting Wednesday with multi-session trending makes today’s close likely to trigger a WedEX signal.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2670.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2666.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2676.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2673.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew its bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s rally off of its 2630.00 low resumed Sunday night, albeit shallower. But it unfolded in two segments that hesitated at 2637.50 and 2655.00, which are 38.2% and 61.8% extensions of the relevant segments of Friday afternoon’s rally — so, presumably the same sponsorship. A post-open 30-point pullback stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 2618.25 close. Those optimists were sorely missed just when they were needed most, to maintain the afternoon probe of fresh highs up to 2671.50. The closing dip to 2645.75 probed back under the morning’s 2654.25 high, missing a final opportunity for the intraday rally to gain traction for its efforts. Which continues to suggest the bounce is only a temporary correction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Where Sunday night’s open immediately retraced Friday’s late reaction down from fresh session highs, yesterday’s late reaction down has extended lower overnight. Not for lack of trying — a bounce up to 2659.25 soon reversed back down, extending to 2636.25 out of Europe’s opens and consolidating up to 2644.00 for several hours. That ranging just broke higher, now touching 2648.00.

If, then…
Yesterday’s expenditure of buying pressure failed to close above relevant resistance, which continues to suggest the bounce is only a temporary correction. A proverbial “dead cat bounce.” The overnight dip isn’t yet deep enough to prove it isn’t just correcting yesterday’s rally. Anyway, a lower open would still require being maintained through the open to influence intraday action. Meanwhile, absorbing a weaker open could be rewarded by retesting yesterday’s highs up to 2673.75.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2650.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2645.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.