The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s choppy ranging was flat-to-higher, until Monday’s post-open surge probed above Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs to 2841.00. The bearish WedEX was in hibernation until the bias environment’s last half-hour retraced it all by collapsing back down to the 2830.00 open. This isolated the morning’s probe above of prior highs, which would have formed a top by closing back under the morning’s 2829.50 low. Instead, the balance of the session rallied back up to Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs, and then back up to the morning’s 2841.00 high. This satisfied the eventual higher close required by Friday’s new trend high close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late surge back up to the morning’s highs didn’t pause as it extended through the Globex open to 2843.50. A pullback attacked 2839.00 before recovering to a higher high attacking 2845.00. The 2841.75 bias-up signal provided a shelf of support as price consolidated through midnight, and also through Europe’s opens. The range eventually finally broke, higher, sharply higher, now testing 2853.00. The overnight high includes complexity that qualifies it as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest, often the same day.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Two strong-handed sponsorships battled at the highs Monday, so it was unlikely Tuesday’s pattern would just range narrowly. Monday morning’s isolated probe avoided reversing momentum down, but the reversal attempt was made. Yesterday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts, but the overnight rally is going to ask intraday buyers to immediately reinforce yet higher prices. Gapping up above all prior highs will leave an anchor wanting to be retested from below, in case of an immediate post-open reversal down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2848.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2847.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2853.25 and potentially 2857.00. Exiting the open above 2846.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2841.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s overnight retest of 2825.00 had collapsed like the night before, but this time recovered in time for gapping up to 2819.00. The morning was restrained by Wednesday’s 2826.50 high, while ranging exclusively in positive territory. The restraints evaporated with the bias environment lapsing, allowing a 10-point surge into the noon hour that touched 2836.50. Bias-up triggered, but its 2838.25 target was left outstanding as the late-morning surge retraced throughout the afternoon. A last-minute surge from 2823.50 to the 2828.00 cash session close left a new trend high close that requires another eventual higher close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped back down from Friday’s post-close surge, back through Friday’s 2828.00 cash session close. The low soon held 2824.00, just above Friday afternoon’s late low, and began reversing up. Recovering back into positive territory rallied into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking 2834.00. All of which has been contained within Friday afternoon’s range, and now price has reversed back down to unchanged.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s new trend high close offers context that ensures a recovery in case of reversing down Monday. And Monday is vulnerable to reversing down, which is suggested by still overlapping Wednesday’s 2826.50 prior highs 3 minutes before Friday’s close. Meanwhile, Friday afternoon’s pessimism confirms the bearish WedEX signal will influence Monday morning’s price action — regardless of whether the open gaps up or down. The entire opening 15 minutes could trend up, but not any higher, if the bearish WedEX influence remains intact.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2833.00 would be likely to trigger the 2830.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2825.25 would b unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Volatile overnight ranging had ranged up to 2825.00, potentially headed to fresh highs. We’ll never know, because China trade news triggered a collapse through the open down to 2808.50. Bouncing through the morning up to 2821.00 was retraced back down to 2811.00, with the final hour’s recovery effort peaking at 2817.00. “Unfinished business” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2806.25 bias-down target.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late recovery effort to 2817.00 had retraced to 2811.00, where another recovery would be likely if a recovery were valid at all. Trending back up began without delay, reaching 2822.00 by midnight. A 5-point dip into Europe’s opens has been recovered to probe several ticks above the earlier high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
It was Tuesday’s multiple failures to exceed the 2803.00 area that enabled the overnight dip’s recovery to trend higher Wednesday. Will Thursday’s upside inhibitions resolve similarly Friday? A pre-open rally to 2425.00 was reversed down sharply by China trade news. If that had intended to probe higher otherwise, then Friday should do so — and possibly also compensate for the delay, extending to the 2831.00 area. Otherwise, not triggering bias-up this morning could be the start of drifting lower into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2820.75 would be likely to trigger the 2818.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2815.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s repeated tests of the 2803.00 area had failed to break higher, despite having an attraction up to 2811.25-2812.00. So, strong-handed buyers were sought at lower levels, and the overnight dip began finding them at 2785.50. Already beginning to to recover by midnight, and largely recovered before Europe’s opens, Wednesday’s open was greeted by gapping up to 2807.50. The morning’s bias environment surged through 2811.25-2812.00 up to attack 2824.00. A Complex Inverted Head & Shoulders formed during the noon hour to produce a brief surge up to 2826.50 that collapsed to test 2814.00, ranging sideways into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Despite Globex quickly firming up to 2823.50, it was all retraced back down to 2814.00 by midnight. And then it was all recovered, attacking 2825.00 and then retesting it. Resistance there proved itself as price collapsed back down to fresh overnight lows attacking 2811.00 close on China trade news.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
In case you couldn’t join is in real-time yesterday, the post-close In-depth Overview was recorded here. I also recommend (re?)visiting the more detailed discussions of Basic Concepts here. Your feedback is appreciated…  The template for trending up intraday can’t tolerate initial weakness. Gapping up above 2824.00-2825.00 would serve by proxy to form a bullish WedEX, which is otherwise bearish for Wednesday having been contained within last Monday’s range. Probing above 2824.00-2825.00 intraday could still be productive up to the 2831.00 area, while being vulnerable to repeating yesterday’s collapse from probing fresh highs — but more substantially. Meanwhile, initial weakness that triggers bias-down would target Tuesday’s “lower prior highs” at 2801.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2817.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2822.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2817.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2813.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2811.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s excessive optimism had continued its productivity post-close, probing higher overnight to 2799.00. Reacting back down into negative territory at 2785.50 was recovered in time to avoid a bearish opening setup. Its reward was to probe even higher highs attacking 2803.00. But ultimately the opening levels around 2793.00 were retraced.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last 60-90 minutes had dipped back down to session lows at 2793.00, reacting up to 2800.50. Globex immediately dipped again and extended down — albeit choppily — to attack 2788.00. Already firming into midnight, the balance of the session has trended back up to now probe above 2800.50 to 2802.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Perhaps anxiousness ahead of the Brexit vote inhibited the extension higher, and then limited the reaction down. Not surprisingly, reaction to the heavily-watched event contained fewer surprises than did its pre-ordained outcome. The overnight round-trip suggests there won’t be initial downside. Rather, the dip may have wrung out yesterday’s anxiousness, and the indicated open is postured to attack yesterday’s well-worn highs. Probing higher this morning might reverse down from testing 2811.25-2812.00, because last night’s shallow dip didn’t stretch the rubber band very much. Otherwise, probing any higher after a shallow pullback would reflect more excessive optimism like Monday — and also like Monday, extend higher steeply. So, a steep slope attacking 2811.25-2812.00 would be likelier to extend higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.