The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The week began as optimistically as they can get. Gapping up to 2755.00, and trending almost straight up throughout the session to 2788.00-2389.00. The morning segment of the rally was steeper and more productive than the afternoon, but each was relentless with relatively shallow pullbacks. “Higher prior lows” at 2775.00 was the potential objective, and it was exceeded easily and by far. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding as the afternoon peaked upon fulfilling its bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action so far is exclusively above yesterday’s range. But its initial enthusiasm — follow-through from the intraday rally — has been retraced almost entirely. Surging 4-5 points from the close up to 2792.50 soon extended higher to 2799.00. That was the first hour of Globex. Sideways through midnight has since worked its way back down to yesterday’s close. To it, and now through it to 2785.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
PROGRAMMING SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: I’m hosting a special introductory overview of the If Then method after Wednesday’s close at 4:30 ET. Onboarding for newer subscribers, refresher for seasoned subscribers, and a good opportunity to focus on strategy and tactics as market volatility begins heating up again… Yesterday afternoon’s traction signal was triggered when the bias environment’s bullish exit was confirmed by the proxy window. There was one caveat, that the bias environment had only ranged narrowly sideways, mitigating the effort that traction was rewarding. So, unless still holding up through Tuesday’s open, its reward of probing above Monday’s highs might have been fulfilled overnight. Opening under the earlier Globex low could form a bearish Globex-flip setup that points down through the morning. By the same token, forming a Globex-flip without actually triggering it would be as bullish as it would have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2787.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2791.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s pattern was a tale of two cities, one bearish and the other bullish. It begins by probing fresh relative lows overnight and then gapping down to 2732.00 in reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report. The week-long decline’s next lower target at 2727.25 held a couple of tests through the bias timing window, and the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level to signal a Dry Cleaners morning. The balance of the morning retraced the payrolls reaction back up to 2741.50, which the noon hour retraced back down to the morning’s test of 2727.25. Then came the bullish tale, as the balance of the session rallied back up to 2748.00 and 2752.50. The moral of the story was still negative, ending under Thursday’s 2754.00-2755.00 close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex session has done what Friday afternoon’s rally did not, finally retesting Thursday’s close. A weak open dipped as low as 2741.75 before beginning to retrace, recovering all of the opening drop and more. Attacking 2756.00 by midnight, and testing 2758.00 into Europe’s opens, has settled back under 2756.00 — still several points into positive territory.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s reaction to the pre-open payrolls report was exacerbated by the impending two days of illiquidity. The afternoon’s rally retraced it, but didn’t reject it. The 2732.00 open’s gap under prior lows wants to be retested from above, which could trigger a deeper pullback targeting 2720.50. Gapping open above Friday’s range would be vulnerable to a detour from retesting Friday’s open, perhaps up to 2775.00-2776.00. Gapping up only to resistance — such as this morning’s 2758.00 bias-up target — would be vulnerable to snapping back down into and through Friday’s range to fresh lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
[All prices quoted basis Jun] Thursday night’s lowest lows in three weeks at 2766.75 wasn’t the market hunkering down defensively ahead of the day’s ECB events. It was chipping away at support, as if any remained. Both the likelihood for attempting to isolate the fresh lows, and the likelihood for the attempt to fail, were already obvious before the open. A bounce barely attacked 2782.25 where a sell signal was easily triggered before beginning to collapse into and out of the open. Simply for having revisited 2782.25 Wednesday, the next lower objective at 2758.75 was put into play. Thursday’s 10:15 bias timing window had blown through it to the collapse’s 2747.00 low. Stair-stepping back up to 2766.25 through the noon hour narrowly avoided triggering bias-up, which opened the door to another downleg. Fresh session lows next targeting 2739.00 encountered support upon attacking 2743.25, bouncing to 2754.00-2755.00 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Pessimism is greeting this morning’s Employment Situation report, probing under yesterday’s lows. Which is unusual, as I had noted during yesterday’s post-close Market Wrap, that overnight action ahead of payrolls tends to be uneventful. But flat-to-lower ranging at the Globex open had soon dipped down to this morning’s 2748.75 bias-down signal and bounced back up to 2755.50. Trending down again greeted Eueope’s opens at the 2741.25 bias-down target, which is now being retested despite ranging sideways since then.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
[All prices quoted basis Jun] Resolving down from Thursday’s late bounce, and fulfilling 2739.00, would next target 2727.25 and 2720.50. The pessimism of already probing fresh lows overnight might be bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, a favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report could first test 2758.75 as noise, or even “higher prior lows” at 2775.25. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And this being a Friday after having trended down sharply to a fresh multi-week extreme, intraday volatility is likely to persist well into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s brief probe under its intraday low down to 2781.50 had been recovered pre-open to test Tuesday’s 2789.00-2792.00 close. But already slipping back into negative territory through Wednesday’s open extended down through the morning and noon hour. The afternoon bias environment was greeted sharply lower at 2769.50. Its 9-point bounce gained no traction (remaining within the noon hour’s range and entering the final hour within the bias environment’s range). That resolved down to probe fresh lows down to 2768.50. Its reaction up was shallower, barely attacking 2777.00 instead of recovering it before settling back at session lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
The intraday decline resumed without hesitation and quickly met 2765.50. A bounce resolved down into Europe’s opens at 2761.50, the lowest levels in three weeks. “Lower prior highs” were barely touched, launching a bounce that is now testing 2766.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There was no bullish reason to revisit 2777.00 again. Closing under it yesterday confirms the next lower objective in-play at 2753.50. Not necessarily in a straight line, which we’ll learn more about if the overnight test of three-week old lows either holds itself, or repeats their test intraday. Isolating the overnight probe of fresh lows could be bullish, but very suspicious without greeting the open above 2777.00. At least. Meanwhile, any isolation attempt would be vulnerable to reversing back down and extending.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.75 would be likely to trigger the 2769.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2761.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2763.75 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal, essentially next targeting 2753.50.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s bounce up to 2799.00 was retraced to greet Tuesday’s open back under Monday’s late 2794.50 high. The open’s collapse attacked 2783.00 and recovered just as quickly. All of which was still within Monday’s final hour range. A lot of opening volatility, but no fresh extreme, often dooms the session to ranging. Trending attempts failed throughout the day as the balance of the session ranged choppily, widening to 2788.00-2796.00 only briefly. A late blip-up to 2797.00 was rejected through the cash session close down to 2789.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late dip extended immediately by the Globex open gapping down to test 2784.50. Extending gradually lower touched 2781.50 before midnight. Finally, it was the Tuesday’s first probe under Monday’s final hour range. But only temporarily, as price recovered to 2789.00 through Europe’s opens, hovering there since.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s last-minute slide and the overnight drop seem like trending, but that is deceptive, as price action remains within Monday’s final hour range. Unless Wednesday’s ADP and EIA produce evidence of intraday trending, continue exercising caution with exposure and sizing. The pattern still has no attractions or resolution requirements, whether in terms of price or time, all of which could change by either testing or breaking a bias signal.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2785.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2783.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.