The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s reaction down to the pre-open Employment Situation report had plenty of room to expend selling pressure without it damaging the chart pattern, thanks to Thursday morning’s substantial rally. The degree of selling pressure was non-arbitrary, testing the 2543.00 pullback limit down to 2541.50. And the duration of selling pressure was relevant, having been expended through the noon hour. Ultimately, the pullback limit held and the afternoon bounced back up to the morning’s 2547.50 high as was expected, albeit stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 2550.00 close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s choppy start soon resumed Friday afternoon’s recovery up to 2549.50. Flat-to-lower ranging through Europe’s opens has returned back to the overnight high, and now resumed the rally. The gap back up to last Thursday’s close is being pierced by 1 tick.

If, then…
A lot of selling pressure was expended Friday morning, both in duration and in degree, without reversing the trend down. Still testing 2543.00 into the noon hour does keep alive some vulnerability to probing lower, which we’ll anticipate if the overnight bounce is rejected back into negative territory. Its origin would be from a position of strength, having failed to exploit the opportunity for trending down Friday, and now being a low-volume session due to the Columbus Day holiday. Meanwhile, the gap back up to Thursday’s close has yet to be filled, which would be done on the way to “unfinished business above” at 2552.00. Closing higher would qualify as day-9 of a a potential Up/Down-crash setup, as quarterly earnings start.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2552.00 would be likely to trigger the 2549.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2545.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market or it’s a little Pastime little maybe 15-20 minutes late here this morning but we’ll see you shouldn’t be allowed to cover it shouldn’t be a lot going on today you would think today is Columbus Day a Government Bond markets are closed postal delivery in the United States is closed banks are closed typically a slow all day one of the falls slow holiday along with the Jewish holidays in this particular instance the market is at highs here’s MDX eking out a new I on Friday all three back in sync eking out a new high into last week actually having difficulty not showing a safety or rotation out of the speculative that is represented by the nq’s as far as money goes yes also last week holding on to them at least right now then stopping a little bit more confirming the indicated and we have earnings coming into new eyes with volume on Friday the reaction to the employment without even beginning to threaten reversing the trend down took advantage of it took a lot of advantage of it keep the door open for available to the market from a bullish perspective on Friday because it would have been too deep coming from 2550 but now having held 2543 a deeper pull back would be if it held 2535 would be still potentially potentially because it’s delayed it’s from a position of strength so it’s not going to get confirmation Thursday Thursday 2549 to avoid triggering to put into play and off sitting test of the 41 by down signal we’ll take it from there later in the morning or through the open if that seems to be the case is the holiday so trending will be difficult other markets starting with currencies and I continued identify this upside caught limitation but inflection point that would reverse momentum up in the Aussie just to point out there’s that much room for a bounce without it yet getting traction will see if it’s taken advantage of it all it was an attempt to take advantage of it on Wednesday that was reversed down and we now have two consecutive lower closes so that’s a confirmed break out from a multi-session range which means an eventual lower close is required before if that doesn’t mean I can’t be a first lower clothes out of the way before we can give better benefit of the doubt to more substantial recovery otherwise right now I would sell strength but we’re going to blow through it basically because had been developing in gaps down only no intraday sewing so that optimism and pessimism prospective potentially so there’s 132 gapping down to it finally getting some down and then Friday again despite breaking lower maintaining to break again bounce back to 132 probing it a little but being that is resistance we also have them through Wednesday closed Thursday break being a break from it Friday being a confirmation of it of the break out so there is in the pound and eventual lower clothes required here’s a better picture and you can see we’re looking for 12091 2898 a minimum Looney there’s that much room for bounce basically 8030 without it because I don’t see that happening anytime soon 1760 being in the rain and then Friday not enough to call it a pivot reversal key reversal still needs follow through this morning maybe a little aggressive to quickly right up to resistance 1288 2788 close up of 1287 1288 and I will give this every benefit of the doubt that momentum is reversed up or at least pull backs will hold fullbacks 12:30 9:50 12:50 with a hold from a close-up of 1287 88th and meanwhile that is resistance be careful if considering a really wanting to get long which I’m not opposed to because this is a longer-term bottom seems to be forming and gold just keep in mind that what we’re not looking for a retest in Friday’s low gapping up this morning is a little too aggressive to quickly it’s the same thing with silver which had unfinished business outstanding outstanding and did close after having filled at Target or have completed the target benefit of the doubt but it still looks like about him is trying to form Long Pond to react negatively to payrolls to extend down to or hold down to 5108 so pretty thoroughly tested not so while we do have this likelihood of extending higher bottoming I would like to see a little deeper than just a little consolidation I would like to see a little more backing and filling as opposed to very quickly reversing up having said that while backing and filling 5119 e 118 would be helpful if this gets carried away without leaving a gap outstanding doesn’t look like we’re going to be wrapping up here and 20 5314 to be recovered so start closing and really have to give because of the close on Wednesday so Friday was not a break will have to look for a but basically it’s certainly the end of a range of the range of noise under that last week’s ranging and by the way to reverse three return to its Target filling the Gap back to 289 did not hold it made a new low close it’s not a pattern that bottoms on Monday when this pattern develops through Friday so we’ll have to take a look at it at the close alright any questions go ahead and post them in the chart room where I will see you at the open good luck today .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open had been greeted by a narrow flat-to-higher overnight range. The range had just begun breaking higher shortly before the open, attacking 2540.00. The open’s reaction down to 2537.00 was recovered on the way to fresh highs. That little reaction, brief was leveraged both by buyers chasing the rally higher, and by actual fundamental developments. More than being a reaction to headlines, the news had contradicted expectations.The afternoon was greeted ta 2549.25, only 2 ticks under the close, despite having triggered its 2547.00 bias-up signal. The 2552.00 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.”.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s narrow ranging was at least flat-to-higher, briefly attacking 2551.00. Last night’s range was flat, and narrower than the prior two that had at least challenged a 2-point width. But calling it the open’s indication would ignore the narrowness’s cause, which is the impending Employment Situation report.

If, then…
I began tracking this upleg’s correlation to the Up/Down-crash setup after day-5 Yesterday was day-7 of consecutive higher closes. This upleg comes within one week of the prior stretch, which lasted 8 days. Neither stretch included the interruption of a lone counter-trend down-day. So, closing negative today after this morning’s payrolls report would not disrupt the setup’s count. Meanwhile, closing higher today would be a new trend high close on a Friday, further entrenching the uptrend and its characteristics. Considering the cumulative “unfinished business below” that has been left outstanding so the rally could extend, today’s intraday action could be wide-ranging, and multi-directional, taking wide swings before the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered before an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session left the chart with another new high close, with no unfinished business above — other than coming closer to significant attraction at 2541.50. open was greeted by a narrow flat-to-lower ranging. Post-open action blipped-down momentarily to a fresh low at 2529.00, but the morning bias environment repeatedly tested 2532.00 resistance. The bias environment launched a rally to 2538.00. The afternoon’s reaction down attacked the morning’s highs, which held as support through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s 2-point range has been as narrow as the prior night. Narrower, not including Tuesday’s late 2-point dip lower. That may yet develop. Meanwhile, the two ranges differ in their bias — last night isn’t flat-to-lower but flat-to-higher, almost imperceptibly until the past hour. This morning’s 2537.00 bias-up signal was just touched.

If, then…
Tuesday’s new high close was similar to Wednesday, having left no unfinished business above. But it differed by not creating any upside attraction intraday. Being an inflection point, the morning’s buy signal above 2533.00 doesn’t qualify. No bias objective above had been outstanding, and no bias-up was triggered. Normally, this might reflect strong underlying demand, except the move was limited to the cusp between windows (bias environment lapsing into the noon hour). Extending higher later would have reflected reinforcements. And so would extending higher this morning, if maintained. But extending higher only temporarily (then closing negative under 2535.50) would qualify today’s higher high as upward momentum failing. Not even probing a higher high but closing under yesterday’s 2529.00 low would signal momentum reversing down. Avoiding such disqualifiers has kept alive this rally leg for more than a week. That has been done by continually creating upside attractions. A lot of that will be undone quickly if new highs has begun inhibiting new accumulation.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2535.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2538.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Yo it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or quick housekeeping note at the top here I will be unavailable during in this is going to be unknown really during the final hours of Market at the very least we will not have a market wrap post close updates will be late tonight and the that includes the bias signals I will record the market wrap but it won’t be at the clothes that’s what’ll be available late tonight as well and I hope to get that out of the way but I’m not sure that it’ll be at the date that’s right the time that it’s only published available so we’ll see on that and there will be about an hour away from the screens before being in front of Greenville more time available range open this was the overnight range and it just started dipping lowered ultimately did the little bit lower than a couple hours of the open even tried it wasn’t a little lower and rejected that signal avoided so that wasn’t broken but not until the so and no higher closed above the morning that’s put into play to get up here no accumulation down below that targets are met any way that could be if we don’t know until we get the defining action and that is either the afternoon could have closed higher it didn’t today without backing off could close higher it may or weave know that we find out that is that it’s not strong hands that broke above Tuesday’s eyes yesterday but we can’t because a closed under under its morning’s low didn’t do that today could probe yesterday’s high trying to extend that rally that hasn’t been rejected but failed to close Above It Could Happen 4150 2541 50 is the next high resistance is significant resistance or even without probing a fresh High today’s session could just run down 4150 doesn’t have to be tested Trend down and close under this morning’s low where at 6 and going on seven sessions of higher closes not being rejected pure uptrending but mostly are essentially on sessions that have been working their way toward some unfinished business above their for an attraction or creating intraday attraction like a bicep triggering a bias up and then get him there yes it was first day too didn’t do that but extended higher anyway and by the way extended higher I should point out during the noon hour I’m sorry into the noon hour during first of all as I said the breakup of the bicep signal when the happened when the bias environment started lapsing it also ended pretty much when the bias environment and it is well and into the noon hour the new not of the buy some ornaments high in fact as it was lapsing call 836-5037 that’s pretty much to find the highs except for this blip up during the otherwise irrelevant noon hour so getting some indications that need to be met either by offsetting the potential negative aspects or that will confirm the negative aspects but they are negative aspects and I should also point out with the three minutes that there is a reaction down there is unfinished business at the earliest outstanding or take it back to Friday Friday morning as trending that broke about 8:25 or 9:50 that hasn’t prevented it but it has created and left outstanding and that’s just the beginning because 6 if I were to fail and remember what we talked about this Saturday the Saturday review and that is Rally attempt in the question a couple weeks ago in other words waiting for that wild that sector starts or before that sector or complex gets all of its ducks in a row but really anything short of 12 87-88 is suspicious as just being a collective nouns Tuesday but that didn’t satisfy the outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close that’s under the last week’s was not just probing under it in today and that inhibited yesterday’s Gap up from extending which isn’t inhibiting this morning or overnight from bouncing again but we’re going to look for clothes it’s not something I would be short for but something I would consider buying upon it being reacted to the next morning or the next day just got to wait for that because of the strong potential if not likelihood or even requirement for a fresh loaf close I’m just not able to call this an accumulative area or use this for accumulation a less 15314 is recovered close above 15314 I’ll look at it and see if it comes from closing 5314 but until then just just an observer of crude oil and this morning Natural Gas but we do have it on Monday and confirm Tuesday and that allowed or enabled yesterday’s bouncy essays open touched and the reaction down neutralize the Gap back to Monday’s open that would have required being filled and is now not 3 until this evening review this weekend .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The primary path to rejecting Monday night’s 2529.50 fresh highs was time-dependent. But Tuesday’s open only fluctuated around the morning’s 2527.50 bias-up signal. It was almost accidental that price was under the bias-up signal when the bias timing window triggered. The morning’s no-bias environment may have inhibited extending higher, but the afternoon’s noN-bias didn’t prevent resuming the overnight rally. Extending to 2532.50 twice tested the morning’s bias-up target, despite it never having been put into play.

Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping-up another point into the futures close touched 2533.50. Reacting down shallowly into the Globex open held a test of 2531.00. It then held the lower-end of a very narrow range through Europe’s opens.

If, then…
A target is essentially the room for noise beyond a signal, with the added input of a setup that requires its test. Tuesday morning’s 2532.00 bias-up target is the room for noise above its 2527.50 bias-up signal. Triggering the signal would have put into play its target, but meanwhile there is room for noise to get there, anyway. Exploiting room for noise in a low-volume environment is like stretching a rubber band, but with very low energy — it will likely snap back unless energy is increased. And in this way Wednesday’s session is vulnerable to snapping back down unless buying pressure increases. So, the rally might not tolerate simply opening flat, and resolve as bearishly as gapping down or dipping soon after the open. Attractions below are at 2520.25 and 2509.50 and lower. Extending higher would next target 2541.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2529.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2532.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2529.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2526.75 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her another shallow nearly ranged over night session last night was flat flat to lower the two prime tonight’s had it developed exclusively in positive territory a little more substantially at least initially Sunday night and more flat the higher yesterday or reading yesterday’s open the last night a little bit of a pause and that follows yesterday afternoon yesterday afternoon having extended higher throughout the afternoon finally getting past this hovering that initially just hovered around range around the mornings bias up signal almost by accident or by chance where 1015 coincided with price with the fluctuation around the 2750 XM signal happened to trigger no bias regardless the balance of the morning did not extend tire and the balance of the morning contained at least one fresh low as it was that’s enough that’s enough to give the mornings all sitting down signal 25 2025 new status it doesn’t get invalidated it becomes unfinished business full of soap 2525 unfinished business and so we look at other things focused on 25-25-25 32 never put into play Again by chance didn’t have to find anything but it was Matt it is room for noise noise it just so happens when it becomes the requirement to get to that end of the extreme but if we’re going to look at this as a detour on the way through 10:15 then 32 should be that room for noise here it is being tested and holding through regular Trading Post close but you can see that hasn’t gotten very far as 2532 continues to define the upper end of the range if in fact requiring 2525 to be tested if this is the end of the range we should know that pretty soon pretty early at least Post open because I Collapse or characterized how price trends down but it should start pretty early if I’m basically just look at it as if the rubber band is being stretched the upper end of the room for noise the rubber band is being stretched up to 2532 why we can’t remember never being put into play just went for noise so unless some more powerful or substantial buying pressure comes in and takes over at the margin here and this room for noise just becomes a launching pad for another unless there’s some evidence pretty quickly weather gapping down which isn’t off the table at this point just soon after the open Sliding or declining or whether the rally the weekend and rally can really tolerate the lack of extending pretty quickly Post open so we should know pretty quickly Post open because the mark of the rally should be extending if it’s going to extend it all maybe it extends to retest yesterday’s high but if the oven in 15 minutes about sylheti haven’t done it or if there’s a retest of yesterday’s high that isn’t extending High Earth revolving window and getting react rejected reacted down back into negative territory or probably heading down don’t talk to that that’s what would open the door back down today this morning it does mean that the markets going to do that and Trend down but those are the characteristics or the behaviour of us were probably trending back down maybe temporarily maybe just to 25 20 or 25 2509 50 that’s outstanding lower than that maybe only temporarily but the point is what would shift the momentum down near-term if those are being exploited pretty quickly through the open 2541 50 is next targeted above starting with the euro yesterday gave that back it’s bouncing a little more substantial but in essence there’s a probe under one 1760 Monday night and that’s should just be the beginning of the break into 11760 to come opportunity 135 with not going to be the end of it without that if there’s going to be a it should be pretty and it shouldn’t be suddenly not a little there’s a good opportunity with room up to 7935 is going to be really don’t want to see it so it’s not going to tolerate very well it’s got this much room bouncing before reversing the trend up and still waiting on a eventual third load of clothes from last week’s confirm Breakout little lower overnight it’s still down a little bit better program 250 it really has room for extending down to 4975 before recovering 5075 back about 50 75 would indicate that the pullback had ended and then natural gas did not confirm yet but within Monday’s rain so it doesn’t qualify as confirmation basically it has this room above back up to 3 299 Without You by the way because I will want to be were tested from above a bounce needs to test the prior range at that point dipping to fill the Gap back to Monday’s open back down into 91 292 then that can be neutralized that’s if this is bothering review this weekend on Saturday this weekend so if you have stocks that you want to look at before then start bringing them up please alright good luck today .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s pre-open dip barely touched Friday’s 2517.75 last-minute high before rallying to within 1 tick of the morning’s 2526.00 bias-up target. Sunday night’s action had developed exclusively in positive territory. Neither of which is bearish, but expressing so much optimism for so long and being fulfilled so quickly does tend to retrace. Especially when simultaneously overbought RSIs will ensure the retracement is only temporary. The morning’s dip to 2519.00 held its corrective pullback target. Recovering through the balance of the session finally touched the morning’s high at the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute pierce above the morning’s high had extended to 2528.00 through the futures close. The Globex open quickly retraced that to 2525.50 and then recovered to higher highs at 2529.50 into midnight. Complexity during the rally has created a “new Globex trend extreme.” Price action since then has softened gradually back down to 2527.25.

If, then…
Optimism remained alive and well during Monday morning’s correction of Sunday night and opening optimism. Its pullback held exclusively in positive territory. So, correcting the overnight optimism this morning should probe well into negative territory — of else not correct, at all. Last night’s high requires an intraday retest, which often prints the same day. I’ll be reluctant to sell before then, unless its near-term attraction is already rejected by opening under the overnight low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2525.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2527.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2528.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to her interesting overnight in that it is somewhat similar in principle to Sunday night One important principle and that is it has essentially developed exclusively in positive territory little bit different Sunday night had surged at the open creating immediately creating room to absorb or expanded selling pressure without it damaging the chart expended immediately began expanding and of selling pressure to Rat Race that surge literally just as deeply as possible without reversing back down piercing really Friday’s range then of course we have to 6184 Tradesman and pre-open dip and in the opening surge more initial optimism creating again room to expand its selling pressure without damaging the chart and had a shower pull back to you yesterday morning that was touched by a tick Oracle point because that even though it doesn’t require of course there’s objectives below it like 2509 5506 2509 53rd Friday’s nobody has trending broke out so we know there’s retracement coming but 2509 doesn’t require any particular orbit that is going to be that is going to be capable of it’s not likely to offer some obligatory support on the way down so let’s talk about that yesterday with all that excessive optimism not just Sunday night and I don’t mean Sunday’s opening search but the entire night having developed exclusively in positive territory and then the mornings opening search not that it was an opening but then it quickly 2526 attacked so lot of Need for correction or likelihood at least of Correction fullback all of that action developed this morning it’s not likely to develop exclusively in positive territory I made two statements there and that is very action this morning will be unlikely to develop exclusively and likely to before I pull back touching the prior sessions range recovered do have another higher hi there is complexity so whatever and it went on to be 2950 today Austin that requirement is met the same day not always here’s a setup that would tell us it won’t be and that is if the open is back under the overnight low having dipped initially at the Globex overnight not as silly open but overnight and recovered do a higher high above the prior session so I have nothing to do with a new trend extreme just a new trend. I haven’t recovered to probe the prior sessions high after dipping back into it overnight that new set that trimmed that hire High tire low Trend can be rejected by opening under the overnight low so that’s 25 2558 25-25-25 if this morning which was pretty close to two points away 2 hours to go we can do that if the open is back under the open is back under the overnight low and maintaining the breaker that will ever ejected the New York to sell if the open isn’t rejecting the overnight highs of attraction or I’ll be reluctant to sell unless the guys were tested Post open but either one of those scenarios would open the door to a cell signal otherwise if the open isn’t already rejecting the overnight High then there’s nothing that forbids this from extending Ireland something that requires an intraday pull back and correction so eyes on the overnight High and a 59fifty range through the open one of the other being tested being probed the opening 15 minutes is going to give us the guidance for the morning for the day any questions 1760 which was attacked stopping optimistically short of it last week requiring a test will they test you can see the actual recognition of 1764 that’s an anchor basically and so this is only a temporary but it’s about able to do that still looking for that there was so I could be considered pretty big drop yesterday at the open so there’s room for noise on a balance and then we could see 134 easily we can see it be pierced and still maintain the down trip and the Aussie fresh low overnight there’s a lot of action in here it’s lower and lower lows the downtrend remains intact so I don’t have any bicycle silver didn’t do anything new over night that had been done still targeting 1650 it has a rejected that are indicated any inclination to reject it and gold as well while it has fulfilled 1253 test by at least a dollar nothing suggesting that it’s trying to buy them literally Gap flat to lower there’s a confirmed break out the requires the risk here is that it is not developing from a higher close is that a great trade it we’re just trying to identify a bottom at this point I would have preferred 5314 first break lower for that for that third lower close to be fulfilled or likely to recover more quickly but we are still looking for at least crude oil Natural Gas but didn’t really agree that we can suggest so still around 293 needs to avoid needs to avoid a second today to have a chance but even if there were an immediate rally after having touched at least they close today .