The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted by an overnight rally that had probed the 2553.50 prior high by 2 points. The week’s gap up and collapse setup remained intact, as a quick reaction down touched 2550.25. But the 2555.50 overnight high was soon recovered. And held. Two more times, until entering the afternoon bias environment. Reacting back down touched the open’s 2550.25 low with barely 3 minutes before the close. Bouncing 2 points into the cash session close stopped short of a new trend extreme close on a Friday. So, the rally isn’t entrenched, but “unfinished business above” is left outstanding at 2556.75 and 2557.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open quickly added another 3 points to touch 2555.25. Narrow ranging back up to Friday’s 2555.50 high was probed by 1 point up to 2556.50, but only briefly. It quickly peaked, and reversed down gradually. Reversing back down into the open’s range, and through it, into and out of Europe’s opens eventually touched Friday’s 2552.00 cash session close. A 2-point bounce has largely failed.

If, then…
A new trend high close isn’t required, despite Friday’s ample opportunity to trigger its setup. Neither is a new high close prevented, although Friday’s close did suggest at least a new intraday high for the move. But something with some effort behind it. That’s not the definition of Sunday night’s brief 1-point probe. While it did come within 1-2 ticks of “unfinished business above” at 2556.75-2557.00 to neutralize it, it also lacked any complexity. So, a fresh high intraday remains possible, and buyers would be marginalized this morning only if the open were to maintain a break under Friday’s 2550.25 lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2551.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2554.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2557.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome back hope everyone had a great weekend it is Monday is October 16th and it is time for the morning Market to her so nothing really going on over the weekend of consequence apparently not of consequence to the market not unless you’re in the Kurdish Market or racking Market or crude oil market and you would think any Market that’s affected by crude oil but this Market is trying to remain oblivious to it all that little more saber rattling just ongoing stuff that the mark our Market as essentially nullified as far as having a detrimental effect I say that somewhat tongue-in-cheek sarcastically and really highlight it today because of the type of action that we’ve been seeing the type of actually saw last night first of all going back to that week-long distributive range distribution doesn’t mean reversal down distribution means from one sponsorship to another it’s too weak or handed sponsorship if it is distribution that resolves up what does that matter why wouldn’t we called accumulation by the week or two handed sponsorship because distribution to weaker and its sponsorship that resolves up resolves down in a different Dora more specific way a very attractive to be short way right now just keep an eye on it really is still being tested because even though Friday’s range developed above that pretty much including new highs it wasn’t a breakout hit it did not include a new trend even if it had included in the 53 and for the purpose of a rubber band and a snap back up because it’s just not getting it done he is expending energy open the door and it really at this stage now that have tipped their hand or sellers have given them this much more rope not arbitrarily a little bit more but actually developing and not at all and buyers didn’t do anything with that opportunity and didn’t put in a new trend close on a Fridaythe time is ticking downJoe none of which is I say precludes and new intraday I last night there was a new I there’s two pieces of Unfinished Business above left outstanding Friday we added 25 56752 what had already been outstanding at 2557 and just testing them to within three or four ticks would have sufficed to at least neutralize their requirement that so much they’re still attractions and if the market is in its proximity or got out of its proximity and got back in its proximity that would be our objective for that leg and maybe some other objectives ever created while getting out of the proximity of that attraction we’re still in the proximity of 56 7557 haven’t broken under it but it was attacked overnight that if it’s a 657 objectives outstanding The Unfinished Business above was it overnight to three or four ticks standing by reversing down it is possible to reverse also we have it set up where there’s a new overnight Trend extreme or overnight probe of the entire sections High there’s not there’s no complexity so it doesn’t require and that’s why opening under maintaining it open to the oven in 15 minutes which you can see it as being influential exit 15 minutes get us out of the proximity to 2556 50s retest unfinished business for the day but least for the morning would be marginalized that would open the door to a rubber band effect down instead of this is not a very tight rubber band above the complexity above see the entire session the end of the road for the rally but still at least for the morning possibly for the day we would consider stay away from Friday doesn’t qualify as possibleso long and an unlikely if 52 5051 is not maintained through the oak and then we could be surprised by an influx of new buyers there’s earnings there’s there’s no. That there is economic data come out there’s no high-profile economic data coming out today very limited tomorrow you know we don’t have an iPhone C meeting for a couple weeks policy ECB comes out next Thursday there’s some room in their time we timing-wise since the market wanted to start the week and if it wants to break free from this consolidation time sensitive so we don’t see it this morning let alone by the clothes it’s probably not happening there’s Friday came back to that basically that was never likely to do anything more than once but stopped short of breaking lower starting to see patients overnight and extending this in completing that corrective bounce and the other is also maintaining Friday’s break are we still on for this to be a bottom prior to extending the Bells if this is last week’s recovery in the Friday the more aggressive it is near term the the less likely that it’s durable so play it patiently this would be the optimal bottoming patternand this is not bottoming pattern still need to get out of bed it’s more than just a correction because of one feature that is the gap left outstanding back to last Friday’s close apart from that there’s this cell signal that it triggered that was very productive albeit without showing or has so far it doesn’t change the signal that Friday I may have taken off the table because of the spike lower Pro buyerclose lower wasn’t a pivot reversal because it didn’t go well qualified under the open and the open but still the samesome of the same main principles we got a cell signal here that would be triggered on a closed under one 1830 and that would get every benefit of the doubt if triggered and take one 1970 off the table and still nothing changes here keep alive the overwhelming likely would have eventually and do you think sooner rather than later break under one 1760 and finally the end confirm breakout still has one lower close outstanding starting to distance itself and get out of its orbit and so with this fresh with this Spike down unemployment situation report reaction that was recovered that we see in the other patterns we should have the bond we see that precious metals there’s a gap outstanding and that’s the last opportunity to to reject this as just being a bounce gold as well we know that’s a bottom satisfied on the way down the question was how quickly it’s faster than I’d anticipated anyway and this is after Thursday opportunity to hold a relevant I went out trading the day around the around the weeks prior hi12 9650 and then of course on the news Friday the economic news it’s not a multi but if I break out of sorts just to get out of that rangeJeopardy by closing lower and a high-profile influential likely to affect totally organically and is now today to take the edge off from filling the Gap at least it’s 1770 except for more constructive which would have been preferable at the beginning of the near-term reaction to last Friday’s employment situation report recovery but may have been done anyway fulfilling signalsThursdayso quickly proved at Friday’s open that apparently had expended all available buying pressure to do that but it’s been vilified overnight by trending higher fresh eyes are minimum wage active here and that means that this could be the end of the road this could all be an effort just to fulfil his unfinished business above back to September 28th opening Gap up above prioritize that was reversed intraday that Gap above prioritize requires being filled it is essentially 5265 it’s more precisely 5265 but the point is that could develop into something more substantial to the upside but that is the attraction that’s what this leg is all about and then Natural Gas still standing on its way up 93 tested number to 304 NE pull back limit being tested back at 3 Friday’s closeonly going to be going to come back down to 289 so either way whether this is on its way back down to 283 along the way or maybe preventing anything lower than likely to touch 289 recording here any questions and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by overnight action having trended down relentlessly. The open didn’t reject it, so sellers were not marginalized. But buyers didn’t suffer the consequences before rallying yet again to touch the week’s 2553.25 high. Reacting to a headline, the afternoon bias environment’s exit collapsed to probe the open’s 2547.25 low by 1 point. The low was recovered into the close, and the morning’s 2557.00 bias objective became “unfinished business above.”

Overnight action’s new info…
Initial weakness retested Thursday morning’s low down to 2547.00 but quickly recovered to resume the late bounce. Another downswing was recovered to test this morning’s 2551.50 bias-up signal, where a brief consolidation is now resolving up aggressively to touch 2553.25.

If, then…
Another week ending in proximity to the rally’s high, having no excuse not to close at a new trend extreme. Which would entrench the rally for being produced on a Friday. No excuse, except for the ongoing distribution in this area, made obvious by three of this week’s opens either collapsing or gapping down. Probing a new high would have no assurance of maintaining or extending, especially if done early and also fulfilling the 2557.00 unfinished business above. The fear of heights isn’t necessarily bearish without actually closing under a relevant support, which has been lacking, and keeps alive the potential for resuming the rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2553.25 would be likely to trigger the 2551.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2449.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
well that’s inconvenient I just so you know I’m about halfway through the went out halfway through but just started doing the recording for about 5 minutes and the platform stopped indicated there was disconnecting and not able to get the recording so let’s try this again rather than asking you to possibly not be able to retrieve the recording to Quick comments what is and this is totally unrelated but I’ve switched back to the original microphone facility let me know how that is or if it’s not as good as what you’ve been experiencing this week otherwise and I’ll go back but I do want to get closure on that before making that commitment and then secondly tomorrow is Saturday review we didn’t have one last weekend we do have one this weekend and next not the last week of October so there’s two Saturdays in a row not the last weekend of October but if you have any stocks or anytime please go ahead and request instant analysis snap analysis when it’s convenient to you and that’s helpful let’s look at the market again it’s Friday and where in proximity to the highs as in above prior Lowe’s in this whole series we’ve had two attempts to opportunity opportunity to actually break there was Monday but we knew that it was going to hold from whatever level because it was being attempted from a position of strength having held 43 last Friday in reaction to the employment situation report and then yesterday open that doesn’t know there’s nothing that looks like the Gap at Wednesday then at that point the opens low became relevant and the opportunity to form a pattern from being distributed distribution on Wednesday distribution that’s going to be a temporaryit was just slow playing stronger buyers don’t have had a virus coming back in we should know today because being in proximity to the highs should produce a new I close new trend I close there really is only one other piece of Unfinished Business above it’s not structural like a new trend I close on a Friday would be its calculable it’s a 2557 bicep Target that was created yesterday or by a signal that was put into play Haven’t turned positive even approached it but the pattern or the signal was productive through the morning and not rejected so it became unfinished business above so if the 57 or in the morning this morning and we exit the back under eyes so basically something like this whether or not we get to 2557 include 2557 either one would be would qualify back under prioritize the later it is the more demanding so if it’s exiting the noon hour not until I get back under 25 50 by the same token if the environment is exited back under 53 then it would be helpful for the noon hour also broken back under 25 50 that we can pound reversal but this pattern entirely possible what we haven’t had in this series of rejection of the 2550 2553 or distribution in the open this could get free I don’t know if that translates to Europe off the table still waitingcontinuingreally never got but one intraday trading session so I’m assuming that this is just a corrective balance for that reason but there’s otherwise no targets below that require being that and then the Aussie back up to 7840 which we knew that this this session would have to be retested because it’s inappropriate to have left that outstanding is that going to be able to form a durable bottom probably not because that’s a corrective because that’s a confirmed break out of sorts it’s not optimal because it’s actually not because of the Gap up but I can’t give you the benefit of the doubt that it’s recovering gold which stretched to the max by probing a fresh High probing the prior High and testing testing this Pryor High testing Tuesdays I needed to hold Tuesdays I went out the day testing at overlapping it in order to maintain the near-term potential for corrective dip still waiting for that to play out silver as well just extended has overnight tried but it has been outperforming gold long blonde correct and the passage of time passage of time correction that has been relatively brief but as long as of the sum of the corrections could be in that instance to the FED interest rates it is a reaction it has recovered completely and then Wednesday and Wednesday so that was from a position of strength that would be recovered and we’re recovering today to go back to and through Wednesday closed presumably extending higher Monday’s close so we can give it apull back limit alright any questions let me know just update real quickly look where we’re back at the highs David e325 no really I mean this is just a total reward to yesterday’s low lately though having held at retest of the mornings low to indicate that sellers didn’t start or weren’t gaining traction for their effort and meet while having expended all this energy overnight or even pre open just to get back to the upper end that robs the market the buyers of the opportunity to gain traction to gain loyalty to gain Defenders or sponsorship in other words that I want to pick up on pull back to defend against a reaction down that doesn’t mean we’re not going again just don’t see how we get out of here without probing especially now that there’s been this kind of overnight reaction there’s no reason no reason for that we’d already been there done that and reacted down so 2557 at least some decisive ProBook fresh eyes and if it’s done early which seems to be the case I can’t take that for granted because seem to be the case yesterday as well if it’s done early enough this is earlier if its sponsorship and then exit the environment or the noon hour back under those 2053 2550 levels and this could be a pretty again Harry day on the side and we get a new trend I close on a Friday and trenching the rally see you at the open good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was preceded by an overnight dip had tested 2545.00 and retested it by 5 ticks, warning that sellers weren’t gaining traction for their efforts. In fact, the open had recovered up to 2548.00 from having dipped overnight. Firming a little further consolidated around 2551.00 ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. A brief swing from 2552.00 to 2449.00 and back up again continued improving to close back at Tuesday’s 2553.25 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not surprisingly, this area has proved once again its propensity for distribution. Price has only trended down since surging into yesterday’s close. Firming 2 points from 2549.50 ahead of Europe’s opens was apparently disappointed and resumed trending down to fresh lows. Now  yesterday’s 2548.00 open is being probed by a point.

If, then…
There was no “unfinished business above” after Tuesday’s session, and none after Wednesday’s session. Today’s open is indicated to gap down, which would create new unfinished business above, had yesterday’s new high close been above all prior intraday highs. But it wasn’t. Rather, it was AT Tuesday’s 2553.25 high, so the gap won’t require being filled. None of which requires extending down, which continues to depend upon breaking under a relevant low. Relentless one-way trending overnight is often vulnerable to losing its sponsorship at the open, so not extending down at the open could quickly become bullish. And if sellers can’t exploit the overnight trending, then a fresh high targeting 2557.00 becomes likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2547.75 would be likely to trigger the 2549.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2551.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up failed like Monday’s did, which also collapsed. But Tuesday’s gap up neutralized “unfinished business above” at 2552.00 which Monday’s gap up had stopped 2 points short of touching. No other objective above remains outstanding, but the morning’s collapse to 2543.00 never extended. Indeed, it held a noon hour retest instead of breaking lower.

Overnight action’s new info…
The interim high between Tuesday’s two tests of 2543.00 was 2547.00. Tuesday afternoon had fluctuated narrowly and choppily around 2547.00. Globex initially probed a little higher, attacking 2550.00. But it reversed through Europe’s opens down to 2545.00. Now a bounce is testing 2547.00 as resistance.

If, then…
No unfinished business above is not necessarily a top, not until exploited by breaking a relevant support below. And the longer that sellers don’t exploit the stagnation, the less likely that they will. Retesting Tuesday’s opening highs is still possible in either a bullish or bearish scenario, but less and less likely if today’s open is already in decline. Not yet breaking lower before this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes would make fresh highs likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2543.00 would be likely to trigger the 2543.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2547.75 would  be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open had been greeted by a rally retracing Friday’s drop. Extending higher post-open to fulfill “unfinished business above” at 2552.00 would have been likely to reverse down. But post-open action only filled the gap back to Thursday’s 2550.00 close before collapsing to 2544.00. The afternoon bias environment also collapsed, sliding to 2539.25. A late 3-point bounce firmed further through the cash session close up to 2544.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low, albeit only an errant tick. The ongoing Up/Down-crash setup was invalidated by a second consecutive negative close.

Overnight action’s new info…
A little spike up to 2546.50 with Asia’s opens was retraced entirely back down to 2544.00. The correction was recovered entirely into Europe’s opens, adding an additional 3 ticks up to 2547.25. That was also retraced entirely back down to 2543.75, and yet another recovery is now testing fresh highs at 2548.00.

If, then…
Monday’s 2539.25 low requires a retest, and gapping up can avoid it. Gapping up at least above Monday afternoon’s 2546.00 high, and preferably above 2547.75. Both are being tested now. An overnight dip to 2536.00 (+/- 5 ticks) could have neutralized the attraction below and then recovered pre-open. That’s still possible intraday if the gap up doesn’t hold. But extending higher would have no excuse not to fulfill the 2552.00 unfinished business above.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45

Phonetic dictation…
1010 it is October 10 it is Tuesday morning at 7 to Tuesday Morning Market tour I just a quick refresh of what is outstanding what the influences are outstanding now from yesterday’s low is 7 guys one minute and 3 minute RSI simultaneously ever sold it yesterday yesterday’s 25 3925 low it was actually wasn’t so much as it was credible support because of so much targeted sport down there the pattern could have extended down but it made sense for that to be a low and it was we tested it was actually 25 3953 975 that made sense to be a couple patterns in there that satisfied their sewing pressure and it was retested but not that errant tick and one minute positively on the retest for the Target so the rally from their recovering from their perfectly credible now the question is whether that doesn’t change that we do have unfinished business below with the retest of yesterday’s below but we can get out of its orbit by opening back Above This range here’s this range from yesterday midday that launched this break lower remember we were just never looking for this pattern to recover or nears Buy Signal was substantially higher really the nearest bicycle would have been tested right here right now finally when the midday range was developing and went the other way but had the recovery yesterday afternoon at the lower end of that range but above it or if we just above it and we can get out of the orbit of yesterday afternoon and what is that that would be Thursday before reversing down little less likely to happen so if we get anywhere near yesterday probably going to plow through it but that doesn’t completely closed Dutchess if the Gap up that’s being attempted doesn’t catch doesn’t catch and extend that’s where we test yesterday’s low comes in and by the way not just his stays low very likely at that point down to 36 25 36 + 1 – probably – but twenty-five 36 + 1 – .5 – 6 still there from a position of strength in that there’s that I’m finished business above it was at first attempt on Friday and that yesterday’s attempt at least went out actually the cash Station close is 2540 – 25 still testing 43 so probably recovers but if that is if we get a down leg in here just looking for a substantial today even in the worst-case scenario at least temporarilyray gun in the Aussie looking for an eventual lower close at meanwhile and now we can start tracking meanwhile if there is a balance 78 is a likely bounce limit the pound left a gap outstanding below but that is a confirmed breakout itself require an eventual requiring an eventual there they were closed it’s bouncing bouncing that just to 1:32 but could be on its way to testing is filling another Gap above which in fact overnight is denoted by the dashed line there’s definitely potential there’s a little fresh air but that’s what we would get to bouncing there’s no requirement Euro probably more matter of when not if 11760 finally breaks it is just being fought with optimism optimism 118 what 1850 is right in this range the likelihood then being dipping back down or at least if not the likelihood to another dip under 11760 dipping into negative territory Thursday all the way to 17 resistance probing into an overnight pattern but there is in the unfinished business last night and now it is to 1294 element but there is room for 1330 no one and there’s really just a range in here very sloppy long blonde failed Friday and we retraced entirely too much optimism to quickly would have the same effect in Reverse as did too much pessimism to quickly Friday morning will that window is now past that risk is now past little dip down here to 15121 5118 would be beneficial would be from a position of strength of having slow played the recovery of having avoided resuming the decline so very similar to the same principle that we were applying Friday morning from a position of strength Pro blower the attracted backup position of strength today Pro blower not as low attracted back up if not on the next that pavlovian response turns into actually crude oil testing testing it overnight and finally Natural Gas doesn’t have we had not a multi multi session range leading into Friday’s break lower and Fridays break which is on Monday which allows for the opportunity to that didn’t happen so that’s not a bottom not yet and yet there’s potential for accumulation but it is close and we can give it to the upside 304 .