The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s surge in reaction to the Senate budget approval had reacted down 8 points overnight. Friday’s open was greeted at a 6-point retracement back to the 2571.75 overnight high, a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring requiring intraday retest. Consolidating through the morning finally broke higher through the noon hour’s exit. Perhaps it was the passive bearish WedEX influence that caused two probes of fresh highs to retrace, and to exit the bias environment at least 1 point under its 2571.00 entry. None of which prevented a surge to 2574.50 after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close — a new trend high close on a Friday.

Overnight action’s new info…
An momentary blip-down at Sunday night’s open instantly retraced Friday’s post-close portion of its last-minute surge. Then another surge extended to 2576.50, eventually piercing 2577.00 to add complexity that makes it another “new Globex trend extreme.” Drifting lower from there through Europe’s opens eventually retraced the initial blip-down to 2572.00. But the overnight range remains intact as another bounce is attacking the 2577.25 overnight high.

If, then…
Regardless of the opening print being flat or gapping, a bearish WedEX influence would take control no later than the open 15 minutes’ exit. Trending up through the opening 15 minutes would suggest otherwise, with the possible exception of printing the opening uptrend’s high at 9:45. There was already a lot of room as of Friday’s close to expend selling throughout the morning without damaging the rally’s chart. Now there’s a little more, if the overnight lows hold ahead of the open. Having probed overnight above the prior session’s high, exiting the open under the overnight low often accelerates the downside velocity. Ignoring the opportunity to reverse the prevailing trend often helps to extend the trend further intraday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2570.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2575.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2578.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Market to her and kind of looks like Friday’s rally is extending don’t forget Friday’s rally which Begin by gapping up actually that Gap up above all prior hides was a little subdued relative to the overnights church that enabled it that had surged being a product of the tax reform theme advancing but I spent the morning consolidating the opens Gap up didn’t retest the overnight High until the afternoon the afternoon of course being a touchstone for the medics what does influential influential and that is by at after the final Rose at least an hour this surge didn’t happen until coming to within three minutes of the cash that can close so that does not speak to the efficacy of the Burruss wedding next Friday afternoon usually isn’t that usually isn’t for Monday morning at so we can be confident that the influential Friday afternoon maybe another way we’ll see how we can be in it because regardless of the open this morning to open which could be higher currently indicated at new highs because last night’s open spiked up and even though large portion of last night was spent in decline or at least for tracing back down to Friday’s late eventually the origin almost Friday’s last-minute search now back up to 77 almost touching 7725 so wherever we open but we haven’t even higher than or within the overnight range or even if the open especially if the open under the overnight ranges so far there is still that various what x that could influence the morning the entirety of the morning and influence so you to be aware of and that is last night’s open last night’s initial time frame here’s a low it was initially a blip down that retraced large portion of that Spike doesn’t have to have been there by now but having probed above the prior session size overnight exiting the open under the under the overnight lows down and often invites velocity into the mix so what has happened here since drifting lower into and out of Europe’s opens at a rally well back to the upper end of the range actually done anything that wasn’t done already so I’m not ready to write this off yet but if we do the opening 15 minutes doesn’t down if you have any 15 minutes with one exception. If the opening 15 minutes probably influence influencewhether it was present Friday afternoonbecomes pretty much irrelevant if this morning’s open where the trend up and by the way whatever its influence even if it is very influential this morning that will make a difference when is mourning ends when the bias environment laps is the bear is watex influence is not a consideration anymore alright so I’m not really not really interested in that’s really buying early strength I do want to see where it is if it is at all it’ll be interesting to consider fading any but I’m much more interested in as far as likely setups selling a opening dip under 25 72 73 almost would start tilting the scales enough if there’s an opening dip and it doesn’t fall over and the only 15 minutes volatility even if it does Trend down or remain Under Pressure doesn’t give us an indication that momentum is reversing down I want to buy that for lease to retest of the overnight hi it’s a new blowback stranded stream maybe even for the potential to extend the rally don’t forget that I set up that is all the complete and fails to complete can be as in this case can be as bullish is it would have been a decline that would have been signaled by breaking under exiting the open under the overnight lows that tries through the open to break under the overnight lows and fails when they open is done can turn out to be as foolish as it would have been very much so there are pads higher and lower and we’ll track them at the open Extending down remember this whole rain started with a confirmed that even though price extended down never really gave us that required lower close but if I finally did provide a lower close it was within the range and so that wasn’t living up to the spirit of rewarding the confirm break out we got this bike down on it was recovered in today so I’m pretty close to rejecting it all but literally formed a head and shoulders top hat that last minute and it’s really been straight down since then one thing that I point it out along the way or that pattern was taking its time for filling it’s lower close it was that was basically promised as a reward to sellers that created the confirm breakout previously was at the delay would very likely extend that reward so last night’s Gap Town and big question here continues to be continued to be brief detour in that case butthe pound whichThursday night Friday morning and fulfilling that minimum objective which is to fill the gap this a two-week-old got back to the employment situation report reaction stop optimistically recovered actually buy Fridays open that’s not been exploited but I don’t think I can be exploited much Beyond feeling this Gap back to last Monday’s close 1:30 to 65 area and then the RC which I’m not sure this is working out or going to work out but that turn that we anticipated from up here last Friday’s close to pull back and then it’s recovery as stop shorter stop short before we’re tracing the recovery and now overnight is not showing any signs of improvement Silver with recovery triggered signaled above 1711 still needed confirmation from a second especially having tested 1730 with that recovery not forthcoming than Friday already hadnot yet but this patternthat didn’t gain traction didn’t break under relevant levels Gap downhill of training support and closed positive so now starting a new week and starting over the Gap up in fact not that it’s been extended overnight really no excuse to further delay extending higher the no more back and feeling in this pattern is needed if it’s extended higher and the natural gas is really scuse me has really taken advantage of this still premature recovery and there’s a fresh and low that same session close is above and inflection point which is fine that at least indicates and usually only indicates that the downside momentum has lapsed but in this case it has extended higher not only Friday but now Sunday night gabbing up camping up considerably back to resistance back to 3 so there’s a gap this is basically back to 297 to 9697 that’s going to be the reference point for the open if he opened above to 96 to 97 I’m willing to give it every benefit of the doubt before before reversing down otherwise failed 96 to 97 and I would look for this premature bounce to start racing and it doesn’tgood luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s new high close at 2559.50-2560.00 didn’t prevent an overnight plunge to 2542.50. Thursday’s open was greeted back up at the morning’s 2550.75 bias-down target, but its 3-4 point blip-up plunged again. The post-open selling was finished before the morning bias environment signal triggered at 10:15. The balance of the session trended back up. Relentlessly. Every timing window recovered to a prior relevant high. Ultimately, the gap back up to Wednesday’s close was filled by Thursday’s last cash session bar. No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging down to 2559.50-2560.00 was suddenly shocked by a Senate budget vote that made tax reform likelier. The reaction was overwhelming, surging 11 points to attack 2571.00. That was soon probed by another point, adding complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme.” But not for long, as quickly reacting down has extended lower for the balance of the night, to as low as 2563.75. That’s essentially a 61.8% retracement of the surge.

If, then…
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Yet another chance for the two-week long tradition of greeting opening enthusiasm with a collapse? Despite trending down since the overnight surge, a gap up is still indicated. Wednesday’s 2563.75 “unfinished business above” is fulfilled. A “new Globex trend extreme” has been replaced overnight, but yesterday proved that doesn’t prevent an interim reversal. Actually reversing into negative territory will be done very quickly, if at all. Otherwise, holding a test of “lower prior highs” would marginalize sellers for the morning. As for the afternoon, here comes WedEX. And the proxy for adjusting it at Thursday’s open inverted the signal from actively bullish to passively bearish. Its influence begins this afternoon and extends through Monday morning. Will that be affected by the past 48 hours’ unusual multi-directional changes and their unusually wide swings? Probably. But the effect may be to exacerbate WedEX’s influence. Trending up into the weekend is not at all assured, and this might prove to be the understatement of the week.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2566.75 would likely trigger the 2563.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2561.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome this is just an amazing Market it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour it is expiration we have I don’t blink we have a passively barish wed x barish means down and always see his up or possibly because the wet X influences Friday afternoon its influence is irrelevant until Friday afternoon and then Monday morning it is triggered at Friday’s close it has nothing to do with Thursday Thursday can have something to do with it in fact this Thursday did and that there is the wet X triggering Wednesday actively bullish because of the clothes Bubba multi-session range essentially there’s a couple of the bells and whistles and this case actually is pretty simple because there’s bells and whistles weren’t even involved but the session did create the possibility for adjusting it inverting it by proxy of Thursday’s open Thursday is open is the only proxy there is two adjusting the wet X and the wet X did get adjusted by proxy at Thursday’s open by gapping Down Under the level whatever level that was in this case it was essentially 22:57 2575 that had created the bullish FedExthat doesn’t matter that was also recovered eventually as it was yesterday back above the same level that indicated by proxy at Thursday’s open that the way I could be adjusted too late there’s only one proxy for adjusting the Decks that is so it’s really possible that the recovery is gone so far as to this point again the original decks because of Wednesday’s close even keeping the door open because of Wednesday’s pattern because of Wednesday’s pattern haven’t kept the door open to that proxy in that box of being successful and I’ll go even one step further in the last relative low the last relative low that is identified by the support test that was overlapped during the opening 15 minutes that almost went so far if not went so far as to create and actively barish with X passively is where we’re at because ultimately the probe has failed at the open in 15 minutes so far as the break back under the last relative lowand actually that would have been that would have qualified on a normal basis as actively we’re going to give you every opportunity it’s not a timing signal timing Windows signal it’s a bias signal not a by ourselves signal it’s not inflection it just tells us the kindwhat happens this morning is your relevant to the afternoons wed x which we will be looking for any send the confirmation of barish behavior anybody see any anybody see any signs of berries behavior on the horizon here’s an interesting one we can look back at the last couple weeks we’ve talked about it nearly every day and that is the tradition the pretty well established Tradition now of course the market hates Traditions the last too long the tradition of wrapping up taking that enthusiasm and collapsing it basically collapsing opens opening and fousey azzam here’s some enthusiasm the last of through the clothes that’s okay that’s what overnights four claps that claps that it’s not great for the best reflection of it but right away pick it up with another another example and even on Wednesday that tradition was honored coming from a new high and coming from where we had already determined as a Monday’s close that this pattern was trying to resolve in fact what happened well the next day didn’t do it but since then of course price has been all over the place since Monday’s close told us that this I’m going up Trend was a bad to resolve it certainly has changed its characteristics all of them will see because here it is again here’s Wednesday’s Gap up collapsed and now today what do we have indicated today another Gap up because last night the US Senate approved a budget bill that or a budget that paves the way to tax reform presumably that’s 61.8% from Wednesday morning I told us that yesterday was likely to be like unlikely to extend likely to be recovered nothing nothing about that spoke to the velocity of that recovery that it would be the same day but in any case we shouldn’t be surprised at the recovery because the context said that direction would not change yet to down or at least not to trust the plunge extending so in fact that’s now neutralized 6375 that new guy that had printed before Wednesday’s open that’s moot now that’s still needed to be in still needs to be retested intraday but it’s been replaced by a new new Globex friend extreme there is complexity here there is complexity here overnight so they don’t need to be tested at some point not necessarily today but we’ll see get a opening surge back to it add that to the mix neutralizing the attraction to that new club at strand extreme by retesting it Post open and that doing that real quickly of course and then that tradition of collapsing the opening enthusiasm and suddenly we could be looking at a situation like this that’s the case because like Wednesday gapping up and then collapsing held lower prioritize this wrapping up to a new high gapping up today will be will be so collapsing still has that from a new I still has a tough path down to get under lower prioritize and there’s a lot of sport in here again 5660 this is a Friday Friday different with two days of a liquidity fast approaching its expiration don’t forget afternoonthere is basicallyending today above any prior high at all not until the open passes through the open get through the morning and still maintain above prioritize and we can give we can marginalize sellers at that point possibly but not until then alright so could be awesome morning too short to sell opening strength or reach out to the other night I or something that will identify at the open or just before remember yesterday set up no reason why that can’t duplicate which was to sell an opening bounce if we got it there’s no Assurance of getting it to 5375 but if we got it we knew in advance that that would be very opportunistic to sell into similar setup the market loves Traditions Twilight and patterns alright let’s look at other markets real quickly which has a head and shoulders sort of played at really just played out in one day that’s not typical but already reversing to test the neckline of that pattern and now rejecting that still need at least one new little close have or trading down to 88 3435 all the way back down to the Lowe’s almost this could be the day again could be the day for that what was the setup that I described yesterday since Wednesday had pretty much used up all the correct of balance for this cell signal to keep that in play before yesterday gapped up we have Gap up and close back at the Gap up created an opportunity for that to be an island of sorts it’s not actually behavior and that would be indicated this morning literally by gapping back down to Wednesday Wednesdays close that’s what I did to it it’s actually won’t be done if it’s if it’s not done but it has the opportunity to take a cab down to Wednesday’s close and resume the decline which I would assume would resume of the Vengeance the Looney backing off of its resistance the pound got lower overnight to one 3107 that’s so close to our objective here but it still doesn’t fill the gap still need to get in there at least test for the first time the session that has that Gap and then the Odyssey dipping a little bit back to overnight shipping back down to basically the expected pull back limit before reversing up so there’s a test there’s a test gold and silver both hovering above signal not the most decisive or convincing but in any case needing a second consecutive today to confirm it’s not be but will still give it every benefit of the doubt on a second or whatever level whatever the overnight Behavior maybe it’s just trying to fill the Gap at which it has done back to Wednesdays close silver more substantial and so has supported 1711 that’s been tested but could also use a second consecutive are close is confirmation 5314 didn’t trigger it didn’t fail it either either but it did neutralize that was outstanding from Tuesday’s closeso really needed this morning to literally Gap up to and through yesterday’s highs in order toprivet the bicycle actually did trigger didn’t do that dip back down to test lower prioritize the sale of her eyes test that Wednesday at tested and then some so is this whole recovery in Jeopardy it kind of is it kind of is that was a on Wednesday either an anomaly or warning shot across the bow an anomaly if the prioritize recovered which yesterday tried to do and despite probing considerably it’s by signal only without testing it so warning shot across the Bell if that attempt to prove it an anomaly fails so in a minimum to keep alive the bullish Canario today needs to close back above Wednesday’s close its back about 1:53 at a minimum that’s not optimal optimal is to recover back into positive territory but we will give 153 benefit of the doubt that it has absorb the has absorbed the drop that the anomaly is last night’s drop otherwise remember that one 5118 area that becomes the target crude oil similar setup and this is a week ago now that was a little different because not just hold the prior high and react app from it of course a little bit more difficult by the way which is trading at a premium to November which were rolling forward from butt it’s at the fluctuate crude oil crude oil differential between the front month or to the front month is fluid on the day and the first couple days actually a roll over so anywayovernight but it’s clearly not maintaining Wednesday 5455 today it’s just not usual undermine yesterday’s closing about yesterday’s high reaction would have been more boys or more reliable extending higher overnight anyway or at least for mebut just be a littlethe second container of our lives would go a long way today had otherwise. Any questions going to put some of the chart room where I’ll see you before the open this could be a very exciting and very opportunistic open if you’re not here for the open I know a lot of by Traders don’t like that where we happen to have an edge on early setups and an edge by the same token of identifying winderley setup is not indicated but it is indicated often and so if you’re around for the open I try to make it worth your while alright Saturday review tomorrow by the way no Saturday review next weekend so if you have stocks don’t forget Saturday with you tomorrow good luck today
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
After printing a “new Globex trend extreme” at 2562.25 just minutes before the open, Wednesday’s gap up immediately collapsed. It had become almost an every-other-day occurrence during the prior two weeks. But the origin of Wednesday’s gap had all but ensured a collapse would not retake control. In fact, the nearest support stopped sellers upon touching Tuesday’s 2557.25 “lower prior highs.” The morning’s bias-up triggered, and its retest launched a recovery back to within 1 tick of the pre-open high. A late dip to 2558.25 originated too late to extend, and bounced into the close. Both pieces of “unfinished business above” created Wednesday were left outstanding, at 2562.25 and 2563.75. Active bullish WedEX triggered, with potential for an ambush by proxy.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s last-minute reaction up to 2560.75 was never exceeded. Narrow ranging had slipped back down to Wednesday’s late 2558.25 low just after midnight. Consolidating there had started breaking lower just ahead of Europe’s opens. Plunging for an hour touched 2542.50. Its 9-point reaction up to 2551.50 has been retraced down to 2544.25. The overnight drop is testing the 2543.00 support that had defined the Employment Situation report’s negative reaction as being only temporary.

If, then…
Did someone say, “ambush”? A shortcoming of Wednesday’s active bullish WedEX was the lack of intraday improvement. The final hour’s range had overlapped the open, which doesn’t reflect buyers gaining traction for their effort. That’s irrelevant if not exploited immediately by sellers, in the form of gapping under that session’s low, i.e. by proxy. Hello, gap down. And the proxy adjusts the WedEX to a passive bearish influence Friday afternoon and Monday morning. First things, first. The overnight drop is testing the 2543.00 support that had defined the Employment Situation report’s reaction. The pivotal low of its test is 2541.50, and touching it would require also touching that Friday’s 2539.50 low. Exiting a timing window above 2541.50 after testing 2539.50 could seal a bottom. Regardless of having tested 2539.50, exiting a timing window under 2541.50 would signal the drop is extending to its next lower supports, still 2535.00-2536.00.  P.S. Happy 30th Anniversary of 1987’s “Black Monday” market crash. In addition to leaving unfinished business above as an anchor, the crash’s anniversary may be today’s most bullish factor. It increases pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2550.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2550.75 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2552.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2556.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
okay thank you for that intro from The Little River Band the old me a favor so it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morgan to her it’s well past time for some action like this we’re getting it overnight will see what kind of reverberations it has introduced a butt overnight there had been a little bit of a actually yes I did some pretty relevant developments we knew as of Monday as close as we were coming in to the end that we we’re about to resolve this ongoing narrow ranging happened to be biased upward or slanted upward but that it was going to be resolved never got the clear resolution the big problem with with well first of all problem on Monday or on Tuesday that is was the nearo ranging broke out late but it too late to be considered a reliable break out and it needed uptrending yesterday morning which it didn’t get it just got a gap up still getting every benefit of the doubt though along the way with a well-defined level or even behavior that would indicate the upside was failing yesterday the problem was that was left out standing was at the Gap up even though we knew because of the context of the pattern resin resolving even though we knew that the that the Gap up would still be vulnerable to collapse if it did collapse and didn’t end up that it would be unlikely to be damaging it would be likely to hold the nearest supports and there was potential for those nearest supports to stretch down to 2556 to stretch down 253-553-2550 just touching touching Tuesday’s close 5775 one thing that I did was that gave us some indication that sellers were done for the day it wasn’t quite the retest of aloe that for instance one week earlier almost one week earlier last Thursday had given where the test and retest of irrelevant level was separated by different timing windows or the employment situation report reaction where it’s test of irrelevant level 25 43 and the retest was separated by multiple timing would have so many times when does it was different days but held through a closed so that was one concern but also that this is what just typically forget about it being Wednesday expiration session yesterday this is what it is or can be an issue and that is there’s a gap up fresh I just that opening print 25 6150 that is overlapped in the final hour a lot of time if you look at Candlestick patterns for instance we don’t need to hear we just need to see the timing window overlap and that was enough to open the door to what I described in yesterday’s rap as an ambush there was potential for this pattern to be ambushed the potential was anything that would prove that only overlapping only overlapping yesterday’s Gap up instead of closing above itclosing in a timelyweather in three minutes of Cashing close that that would if anything short of that why should say anything short of and now let’s go back here sorry so we gapped up got distracted by one of the thing okay wrapped up to 25 6150 went out during the last hour overlapping a half hours it happens but just during the last hour overlapping it instead of closing above it so that left open the trapdoor or an ambush potential by proxy if that session that had that development were immediately rejected at the open the following open this morning’s open rejected by opening under and really just gabbing down to and sliding through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have sufficed but opening under that sessions low reject the entirety of the session that contained that failure that failure to extend higher if not if sellers couldn’t bring a gap down this morning then by default buyers would have one opportunity to inject in other words think of a wedding think of the Gap up being the groom and the bride saying maybe well if nobody objects but if nobody objects by proxy by producing a gap down under that than by default they’re married the Gap up the clothes they indicate momentum extending higher today the Gap is indicating otherwise and I’m assuming we’re going to be under them actually already probing under yesterday’s low ahead of Europe’s open just in the last 30 minutes prior to that you can see where that energy came from so what’s going on what is this slide doing let’s go back a little bit deeper okay so here’s the employment situation report reaction remember that day that we could test 25 43 and not even threatened to reverse the uptrend in fact that held at 2543 to 4150 by the way the important to note there was tested down to 4150 and continued that would all but ensure having to test the actual low too having to test the actual low too and by the way at 4150 and the oldest support through a relevant touch 4150 this morning and at 11:30 then we’re going to be testing 35 at that point too but if thatif it can maintain its recovery recovery will still need to eventually return to that low but at least that would Rob sellers of their tracks in the same way that yesterday’s Lowe’s yesterday’s test and retest of that relevant level of that bias up signals test in the morningthat was retested also in the morning Rob sellers of their traction told us at Sellers were done for the day or very likely so much some of the lead to these two setups the employment situation report day the last Thursday and that could Rob sellers of their tracks in and give us a rally for the rest of the day one other point here is that this is of course the next week and so wet X having triggered bullish actively bullet wed x yesterday still because of that session feature that overlap of the open did the final hour undermining me upside momentum but so long as it wasn’t rejected at today’s open would have default into being bullish would have maintained the bullish signal is apparently being rejected that changes the active the probe will have failed the question though is to what degree that has yet to be answered because if this is that last low prior to producing the new recovering the prioritize 52 basically if 52 is broken through the open which isn’t destroyed we’re testing 49 right now hit 50 to maintain fifteen minutes of all wed x I have no other history no other recorded history in my notes of that happening so I don’t know what to tell you about that other than that it’s a pretty big Paradigm Shift regardless of the unfinished business yesterday’s officially leave that’s not a guiding principle so much as the mornings bias up having held never fulfilled its Target stopped actually almost to point short so that might be the only bullish Factor here except for one other thing and that is this is the anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday crash that heightens people’s pessimism it makes them a little more nervous it adds to the selling pressure anniversary fundamental development so from a contrarian perspective it may actually accelerate into today create artificial selling pressure that existed otherwise and has no basis in fact and therefore yet there’s no more sellers left but it runs through selling pressure so that everybody suddenly is a buyer or by default whatever activities left at the end of the day to sort of enhance and a bullish signal that we might get a little holes in 43 any questions but not confirmed have recovered back to the cell signal yesterday and recovered really the maximum that we from a corrective balance of this cell signal that was basically Monday sessionPeak there nicely but has extended her overnight to where I placed This Barweather up here this is a newly added line there’s a gap there’s ire prior Lowe’s so that’s being tested overnight we can give that a sign that a label as rim for noise for the Euro and still closing back under 118 3118 Boca 11831 1835 closing back under 11830 would still be every bit as barish as anticipated on its first close so I would look for that development if in fact the market were stabilizing Yen carried a little bit lower overnight 8860 basically we testing this prior low basically fulfilling more than fulfilling a minimum of obligation of The Head and Shoulders so regardless of any unfinished business that can take the edge off of sellers Looney that it extended up again to this by signal yesterday still overlapping it the pound has this unfinished business below at the Gap outstanding 138 earea when it’s Friday that would be helpful backing and filling to refueling buyers tracking it is all I can say I would raise the limit now 27088 seven gold objective 7750 developing the entirety of the target area overnight before bouncing just need to seal the bottom to 1288 today says gold has completed its back or would say that copper by the way driving test at 3:14 so the very least so long as basically three and a retest of Monday’s range would be in play silver which also held didn’t have to do anything bouncing overnight still needs to recover it which but just potentially but held lower prioritize left the Gap outstanding above just needs to close back up on 5314 to indicate the rally has resumed is actually testing at here for you open it is resistancecrude oil not extending higher as the dollar Falls stillbut none of the action this week has suggested that the 5265 objective is off the table so as long as and at this stage as long as today’s closes back about the d155 close today back about 5155 there would be no excuse going forward for any further delay to popping another point to 5255 close today about 5155 and we should the pattern should hit 5255 into the weekend and this pattern if it closes at a new trend II that’s a trend on a Friday probably extends into Monday and finally Natural Gas that 282 alright.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open missed the chance to  start trending immediately. That would have been likely to gain traction and to extend through the morning. Instead, the morning — and then, the afternoon — were contained within a choppy, narrow 2552.50-2556.25 range. Rallying out of the afternoon bias environment exit extended to touch Monday’s 2557.75 opening high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally soon probed a little higher to touch a fresh high at 2558.50. Then price action flat-lined, barely trading a 6-tick range. That included several hours past Europe’s opens, which made no impression. Then price suddenly surged to 2560.50, and now another point higher. That extra push has formed complexity, which requires an intraday retest of the overnight high for being a “new Globex trend extreme.”

If, then…
Monday’s action already having suggested the multi-session ranging was ready to resolve, and opens had become vulnerable to extending a gap or surge in either direction. Yesterday’s session didn’t change that, and now this morning’s open seems intent to compensate for the delay. This makes resolving up only slightly likelier — because reversing down from a gap up above prior highs would require eventual retest. So does the “new Globex trend extreme.” Meanwhile, compensating for the resolution’s delay reintroduces a post-open risk of reversing down, even if only to test what is now “lower prior highs” of 2556.00 or  2550.00-2553.25. Much will be determined by whether gapping up is maintained through the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2559.00 would be likely to trigger the 2557.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2556.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her apparently yesterday was the Calm before the storm yesterday I even on Mondays action had already said that the ongoing resolution I’m sorry the ongoing ranging ever since Friday’s employment situation report or actually the Thursday prior to it I told us that holding 2440 through 2543 was going to limit the downside or at least give us a dividing line again this wasn’t coiling all the way up somewhat similar but we’re going to look at this pretty seriously after the open as in the context of was it failed coiling I’m going to that in a moment but the whole point and seeking higher and higher every day wasn’t what told us it was going to resolve or in which direction is going to resolve it back of an ongoing pattern with resistance 22550 2553 with an ongoing behavioral issue of rejecting in the strongest terms early enthusiasm when there wasn’t any gapping up collapsing collapsing closing at the high collapse and cap and gown do it again and finally broke that pattern on Monday until resolution coming when whichever direction to determine and other indications was that was ever broken again 2543 held initially Friday we anticipated that didn’t mean that the potential for breaking ever went away but it never developed there’s another load it was tested in today and held include us into this just that sort of behavior and now today or as of Monday remember the last 60 90 minutes of the session doesn’t belong to that session it belongs to the next session and until the last 60 90 minutes of yesterday’s session at 2:30 when the noon hour is how I broke the market Hedges range near Lee sideways maybe a little early but sideways nearly so it’s as if today by yesterday’s late rally and then flatlining didn’t even make it until 5:30 that suddenly lifted off extended higher so it’s as if the markets trying to compensate for the delay this goes back to the pattern in the potential for it to be a pattern let’s go back to what we already know she this complexity there’s a new high pull back pull back above the range this is actually above all before recovering has to measure out at least 61.8% of that prior move whichbut you can see it doesFlex it is a new Globex Trend extreme big a new Globex friend extreme that requires retest intraday it’s how I will require being retested intraday often the same day so it’s going to be difficult justifying a short until that’s actually tested or unless the overnight low is rejected through the open but that’s so far away from the overnight low 25 5625 that something is not really any high-profile stuff but there’s a Fed speak of another high-profile or whole profile Pro Bowl before the open that that has that kind of ability earnings are coming of course IBM yesterday but the nothing really at this stage very little very little a reaction is back under the mat would reject or get out of the orbit of the overnight high so that we could trim down also gapping up on a delayed basis basically trying to compensate for the delay that runs the risk of being we can we can sponsor should not so we can eat there a specific way a reflection of strong hand in sponsorship that’s why does fail in other words and why is it let me go back why is it not likely to be a successful cleaning pattern because coiling which is kind of restrained optimism in other words or restrain pessimism up with a downward slant but restrained optimism in this case should develop back to a prior high this just kept peeking out fresh pies except satisfying buyers with a fresh high as opposed to creeping and crawling its way backed up to a prior High over multiple sessions so it’s not really but it’s trying to be by resolving is coiling does which is to almost literally explode iron it’s doing that in the wrong set up as I just described it so delayed that is when it became viable the next session literally died on the vine so this seems more exhaustive or at least has that potential what’s the defining difference the defining difference at least for today’s session or the next couple several will be whether the opens Gap up first of all where there is an opening is maintained through the 15 minutes that would do one of two things the upside so if in fact the open does maintain its if it’s maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility and preferably in to 9:45 that doesn’t that doesn’t she would be recovered but it also if it doesn’t reverse down significantly and big difference of rejecting opening enthusiasm has a delay and not trying to compensate for that delay we would have been it would have been time and so would have been very likely to extend higher today has that little bit of Suspicion because of yesterday’s delay So bottom line is if it doesn’t extendworking or at workand it’s minimumprioritize which at this point is into the range 2553 maybe 2550 that would be the reaction down vs the opens Gap up isn’t going to hold if it does then even then we can see a lower price wise lower pressure I say down to 2555 52.66 and then 2556 would be the dividing line dividing line between recovery or deeper rejected this than and opens under 25 5625 then we’ll just be looking for several sessions of substantial decline all right we do have a buy at Target that it’s a triggers is just ahead at 6375 wouldn’t be surprising if the Gap up is maintained if if the entrenchment Extenze wouldn’t be surprised to take that out and have a blowout day again exhaustive or capitulation may be more precise or more applicable in this instance that has some blow off type of extension through the morning this is Wednesday of next week so we will have a wed x signal we will have a wed x signal and today is closed and it should be fairly right it should be fairly evident in this case because of the lead up to it that closing above reversing down there’s not a lot of bells and whistles on the market because of the really big fork in the road that is developed considering testing or attacking the lower end of the range so presumably the producer outstandinga little lower 3163 at the there and then the potential for timing is pretty much it’s going to that tried to take off into a much bigger more speculative bubble this actually is by extending the pull back here and actually getting the minimum 12 of the target areaby getting 12850 Ember there’s a range law of 1850 down to 1270 750 by actually touching that minimum pool bacteria this bottom that we talked about on employment situation day the bottom that formed or was likely forming this is a very constructive correction for that leaving gaps outstanding above it says neutralizing lower prioritize and gaps below so willing to give that big better for the day out in this area someone similarly is silver somewhat similar is silver perform gold on the way up doesn’t have his deep of a pullback required doesn’t really have to pull back much deeper if it all under-17 but there’s a much shallower resolution if it wants to Long Pond is in its bigger turn also looking at a couple Fridays ago being a bottom but still hasn’t resolved up or signal test yesterday morning handled it very well it is still targeting a minimum of 50 to 65 and by the way it is natural gas this morning and if it’s not rejected

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s pre-open recovery attacked Friday’s 2555.50 highs. Monday’s post-open surge probed fresh highs up to 2557.75, fulfilling the two remaining “unfinished business above.” The ongoing pattern of collapsing within minutes of an otherwise enthusiastic start was repeated by a plunge to 2552.00 that narrowly prevented triggering bias-up. But probing only slightly lower down to 2550.75 during the noon hour was all that sellers could produce. Ultimately, their own hesitation was exploited by the afternoon recovery attacking Friday’s 2555.50 highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging has been relatively narrow between 2554.25-2557.00. That’s it, quite uneventful

If, then…
How will today’s session exploit the ongoing range’s ineffectual selling? Probing a little higher intraday has been the default. Eventually that pattern forms “coiling” which suddenly explodes higher. This pattern resembles coiling to some degree, but I don’t think that’s yet the greatest likelihood. So, if it’s premature for a surge to extend, then a surge would likely resolve down. Meanwhile, there’s no requirement for another post-open collapse to recover, as there’s been no requirement for any of the current range’s collapses to recover. But they have continued to recover — perhaps collapsing without first surging would break that pattern of recovery. Regardless, the range has become stretched in its duration, so kinks in the pattern should start to appear. Initial strength may be likelier to extend higher intraday, and a collapse may not need to wait for an opening surge.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Not much preliminary indication today due to the narrow overnight range: Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2556.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2558.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday’s Morning Market to her what a Range Rover not there is no Range Rover night I think it’s safe to say it’s just noise overnight it happens to have dipped bounce dip downstep that’s about as well as there’s really no there’s no discernible pattern it sat there is no relevant price action whatsoever other than the application that having ranged nearly overnight in this particular spot which is at the hot Friday’s High 2555 50 and keep in mind we continually upgrade a prior session size and sort of a stealth rally it’s not very steep there’s there’s a upward slope for sure but Friday’s High’s 2555 50 which is you don’t see a future in fact equated to 5554 75 yesterday’s open 5475 55 yesterday while fluctuating around the prior sessions High inclusive of multiple prior session size where did arrange albeit one that continually pokes its head slightly higher and higher eventually that gradually probing higher and higher a stealth rally so to speak or decline if we were doing with the downtrend but all of this internal internal to the range upward bias becomes coiling that resolves by almost literally exploding higher I don’t think this is coiling I’m not viewing this is coiling that’s not to say that this pattern can’t explode higher it’s just say that if this pattern does explode higher it’s not coming from coiling they were the origin is not cooling and so that explosion higher probably wouldn’t be durable no that’s not to say like these explosions hire at the opens that we’ve been selling into or the X the closes the higher closes that have been gabbing down same in principle the same sort of collapse as the Post open collapses all the way through yesterday probably can fresh I Collapse for the first time actually on Thursday in this range test the high collapse so I don’t think it’s so without even knowing which way it’s going to resolve next we just can start suspecting nothing Asher Dov yet not relying on this but suspecting that it will resolve differently than it has been so if it’s up it’s likely to be a surge it’s likely to begin early and rather than collapse it’s likely to extend so taking a different tactic today or strategy I suppose I would be more trusting of initial strength extending through the morning if not through the day to some degree before being vulnerable to coming back into the range if not back through itand I’m seeing some is a lot of earnings out obviously wearing that cordially. Very good earnings allegedly surprises above estimates in a high-profile and influential companies like Goldman just out on the tape there a surprise upside surprise Johnson Johnson upside surprise Morgan Stanley upside surprise Top Line and bottom I don’t know how it got there on the bottom but not seeing much of a reaction here and the overnight so for that reason it’s not that we become more suspicious if Post open there is a surge because there’s not much reaction here overnight if Post open Action does search will give you the benefit of the doubt that this has had it wrong the overnight has had it wrong and they crowd is right by the same token rather than waiting for a surge before and to spending a collapse before anticipating that initial weakness will collapse we will trust I will trust that initial weakness is trying to collapse and capable of it perhaps his bringing us back down to the support or under it and recover it perhaps shaking the ongoing pattern of holding up trending support or holding some relevant level and Recovery in any case however that claps might resolve if there is an issue a weakness it would be more credible today that it has been for extending down that initial weakness from or a weakness that is from probing higher first but initial weakness collapse without bothering to Pro buyer again overnight near arranging probably has it wrong once we get past the open we get past the pre open earnings as well until this afternoon when we have posted on the market yesterday but Netflix already came out as suspected it was greeted from a position of strength suspected with Netflix. Just almost like clockwork get some negative reaction in there before recovering as far as other markets Euro which I had potential for stretching it’s correct correct anticipating a 1760 at some point and a substantial break at that because of the delay I’m going to actually break actually intervention to being able to extend that yesterday’s session didn’t argue with but still needs to close back on the 118 30 overnight action is trying to get that done but that is the challenge for the euro based on a 3 week old patterns still owes us one new low clothes that this Bounce has therefore presumably been ignoring or delaying that is all these probes have higher highs have been feeling again there’s any arguing anymore with the potential for so 89 by the same token if yesterday’s reaction doesn’t get that going I don’t think anything will be out of the woods and then we’ll look at that again but that was tested but not triggered still reacting down react so there is something beneficial to bottomingthat’s been done by avoiding this bicycle bicycle but I can’t little bicycle yeteven though this cell signal that triggered at 1:35 135 tamwood 3515 was so productive than fulfilled both expected targets the bounce since then had left outstanding a gap back to the low clothes that needs to be filled so we’ve assumed this is just been a big corrective bounce temporary correction whatever the whatever the eventual objective is to just fill this Gap to the low to form a more durable bottom or to resume the decline in either case needing to return to 130 10 so we’ll see if that’s what’s under way here’s some turmoil going on in the brexit what exit is not a hundred percent guaranteed and then see which is trying to get a pull back in here I’m going to give this credibility that that Thursday or Friday search did complete a bottom but just needs to pull back needs to cool down a little bit more that’s just the ones just at 7825 or 7815 7810 but in any case this isn’t necessarily drawn to scale in time so at any point in this pull-back now that there’s been some reaction down as was expected yesterday there’s potential to recover gold and silver both yesterday had failed to confirm or failed to confirm that is Friday a runaway rally but the only reaction was in reaction of gold and silver you can see that on Friday morning now silver silver has been outperforming all the way up silver hasn’t really left as much or as detrimental but still under 1730 1720 this range would still indicate a bigger correction underway still nothing has changed from last Friday or silver and gold silver is breaking under 1732 least test 1711 gold is breaking under 13 basically 1331 initial objective back down to 1288 pull back Target from the employment situation has nothing else to prove it was perhaps a little shallow twice but still willing to give it a crude oil also turn the corner it’s minimum objective to fill the Gap back to Natural Gas which Sunday night really compensated for but here’s the problemandI got in that range to stop optimistically sort of really giving it a good test before firming intraday yesterday before bouncing overnight all the way back up to 29093 so this whole pattern is had a hold of Klein really is that a pattern of stopping short of its objective below before bouncing so we’re about to open indicated open at least back up at the Gap to Friday’s close natural resistance how to give that a benefit of the doubt that it is going to react down I wouldn’t leave that without any stop to the upside then there’s room to more thoroughly test 304 that would be my stop basically and he can’t even go as far as interpreting the pattern and Fridays High what did validate this reversal reversal down as a big payoff potential to probe under under yesterday’s low if not all the way back down into 82 any questions and if their development good luck today.