The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s ~2463.00 low formed a “session-long decline” setup, which was confirmed by extending down through the open. All but one timing window probed the prior timing window’s low, the exception being the afternoon bias environment. It completed a bounce from 2442.75 to 2453.75. The balance of the session melted down to 2435.75. This brought the cumulative drop from Tuesday’s 2488.50 high to 53 points. Thursday was a breakout close, awaiting confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Friday. Thursday also formed a trend reversal setup, which would be confirmed by simply not closing Friday back above 2459.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex has developed exclusively in negative territory. It immediately extended Thursday’s slide from the 2436.75-2437.50 close down to 2432.75. And then it immediately bounced back up to Thursday’s close, which resisted a narrow 3-point range all the way into Europe’s opens. That triggered an immediate dip, and after its quick retracement, a deeper leg fell to fresh lows touching this morning’s 2430.75 bias-down target. It reacted back up 4 points to the initial overnight range.

If, then…
The next lower objective is 2425.25, likely to be probed by at least 4 points. Any post-open weakness Friday would likely fulfill it intraday. The overnight dip to this morning’s 2430.75 bias-down target does make its break helpful confirmation — especially through the open, but through any relevant timing window. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias can persist through the noon hour. That could carry substantial consequences today, as nothing precludes extending through the day. Avoiding this morning’s bias-down signal (let alone renewing it), or exiting the morning in rally mode, may be the only opportunities to avoid trending down sharply into the weekend, and probably also out of it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2439.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2436.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2432.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning welcome it is Friday and all that that entails is Friday and we’re greeting the open of a Friday ahead of a weekend at a Friday factors when greeting the open in negative territory with a globe accession that is traded exclusively negative and maybe that scraped positive territory here a couple of times but yesterday’s drop is today’s session long to climb immediately extended down at last night’s open immediately extended really yesterday’s to climb a little bit relatively speaking a little bit three points to points and then ranged sideways quite a while quite a bit of sideways ranging overnight yesterday’s Cash session and Future’s closes 3675 3750 the fact that we served as resistance and we got to 38 so again exclusively a negative territory Europe’s opens right here one blip down retraced and then not recovering not recovering Europe’s down or reversing I should say recovering it but not turning positive as in sentiment indicator found that buyers just weren’t around found that sellers were pretty skittish and the market to a new level a new level it happens to be this morning’s biased and Target 3075 precisely touched just overlap it and then bounce would be sufficient and it was touched and then bounced back into the range momentarily nap trying to get back into that range everybody wants back into that range it’s not that wide of a range it shouldn’t be that difficult to get back to its upper end back above it right shouldn’t be that difficult what’s the holdup so more so if probing Above This overnight range into positive territory doesn’t begin until very close to the open let alone at the open so again within 30-45 minutes of the open if finally then and only then this overnight range is being probed whatever that were to produce would be temporary at least that would be our premise we’d expected to be temporary might trade it to the upside of might have measurements and suggested can put in and pretty significant balance but will surely be looking for it to Peak and forth at Peak to produce a new down leg potentially the new letters I mean let’s I don’t like to fear monger and referred to the you know the outside chances there’s always an outside chance of a crash there’s a pretty big inside chance of a crash today Friday factors Friday factors bill equidity for 2 days makes the market do interesting things and usual things that are very normal and repositioning ahead of two days of illiquidity can happen on a done so again bouncing back above the overnight range very late like an hour from now as we get much closer an hour and a half as we get much closer to the open just too late that’s fine too ship two unlikely to get a durable rally going if if there is too late of a probe of the overnight range but it does extend and maintain through the opening 15 minutes uh volatility maybe they can get it done we can ship that promise pretty quickly either way this is a Friday and Friday mornings by as tends to persist through the noon hour momentum is reversing up that can be pretty strong rally this morning this afternoon. Nothing that has anything to do with the rally momentum isn’t reversing up really that says that bias persisting through the morning through the noon hour could persist to the afternoon as well it could get ugly if it’s not rescued pretty much at the open right other markets so you’re not exploiting its narrow escape from death from breaking back in 1737 the longer that that persists without rewarding that the downside isn’t extending the more vulnerable to extending the downside that we’ve already crossed that Rubicon I think Looney interesting still probing lower lows intraday fighting them I can’t give this one any bigger benefit of the doubt other than to point out we’re still basically hovering a door under a prior low but the Buy Signal doesn’t change so I’ll just annoyed otherwise pound similar to The Looney different timing scraping Lowe’s new Lowe’s material and honestly wasn’t impressive it had Wednesdays drop had broken out and in Krogers being tested is only going to be one more bite otherwise .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Overnight dips under Tuesday’s 2467.50 low had repeatedly returned to test 2467.50, and to probe it. The choppiness ultimately ended in a late rally that stopped 1 tick short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close. That was the cash session close. None of which had strong-handed sponsorship. Futures then ticked higher to 2474.25, natural resistance at Tuesday’s open.

Overnight action’s new info…
Having stretched the rubber band, Globex began snapping back. Overnight action has only trended down. A bounce at 2466.00 consolidated through Europe’s opens without breaking either way. But that eventually broke lower anyway, and just tested this morning’s 2461.50 bias-down target. RSI improvement is trying to force a bounce.

If, then…
If Wednesday avoided trending down for any reason, it is that overnight sellers had discounted the open deeply enough to dissuade sellers. Not entirely, since intraday dips still developed, and intraday bounces were still absorbed. The last one, too, but not until overnight. So, is Thursday’s open being greeted by another deep discount? Holding a test of relevant support would suggest as much, and allow a morning rally. But having dipped already to a relevant level (the bias-down target) and stopping optimistically short of yesterday’s lows, trending down this morning is likely to quickly resume the overnight slide.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2458.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2461.50 bias-down target by 10:15, and renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2455.75 and 2445.75. Exiting the open under 2463.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2467.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2470.50 would be unlikely to trigger  bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome and we go it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour double digits August 10 days double digits in August time flies double digits overnight not at the moment but yesterday’s having Monday night or Tuesday and it’s going to collapse until after the open is too late either one of those situations would still be vulnerable to recovery let alone actually trending up through the open but that’s the flip side is it’s not binary it’s not a matter of trend down or up if the open isn’t immediately trending down there’s no requirement on immediately trending backup alright let’s look at some other Market starting with currencies the Aussie which did break lower yesterday not extending down overnight not rejecting the overnight or No Yes Or Break overnight but not extending down anyway if not rejected then 78 is in play the PAD as well not extending down it’s still sitting here around 1:30 really not a lot of reason to be retesting that at this stage but it is support until broken Looney is piercing lower probing lower long way off from what could have been a queen recovery backup to the high basically midpoint now gyro not really rejecting these lower prioritize being tested retested reread tested let alone breaking back above any kind of a Buy Signal inflection point so that delay is costing it is suggesting that it doesn’t have sponsorship and this is the last opportunity closing any lower closing under one 1730 would Target a retest initially of 115 Longmont doesn’t really know what to do with itself it’s flat it’s already held a big Target it was mad yesterday morning so doesn’t seem interested today and immediately extending higher above yesterday’s high which is the condition the parameter that says the rally is extending and not that at top is topping but we’ll see what today ends today does break lower of today stocks to collapse if there is a flight to safety that could be just the kick needed to get out of this I love you say hi and put bonds into a new move crude oil now breaking back up to 50 toward 5010 extended Consolidated range we have to invoke the rule that extending near away or into a narrowing range tens initially to break falsely in One Direction before reversing more substantial in the opposite direction so apparently on our way to retest the high 5010 to some level I would rather we get up into the 51 handle yeah it’s likely because of the delay in because of the narrowing going to be only a false break-in reversed maybe so much similarly to stocks as they did yesterday and then natural gas today from a position of strength greeting from a position of strength trending up a little bit of t92 is resistance to 91292 nothing that prevents initially negative knee-jerk reaction down and other than it being outsized could be substantial enough to prove a fresh low that is one nagging one nagging feature missing from the bottom that the retest of last Tuesday’s low only developed pre-open don’t see it on the intraday chart it was only pretty open not to mention that the intraday went on to stop optimistically short several times of repeating that so just one caveat make it through the eia report and we could have a bottom formed write any questions let me know I’ll see you before the open good luck today .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down was in an uptrend, and not within a range, thanks to Monday’s intraday rally that had closed at session highs piercing the ongoing range’s upper-end. This distinction enables labeling the session’s other key features — probing new highs, then closing under the gap down — as a Pivot Reversal. The substantial rally and therefore substantial reversal aren’t key features. More important is that the rally was “no-bias trending” sponsored by weak hands. And that the 2488.50 high neutralized the attraction to 2484.00, leaving no “unfinished business above.” The high’s overbought RSIs printed during the noon hour, so don’t require a retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
A last-minute bounce from 2467.50 up to 2473.00 was quickly rejected by gapping back down to Tuesday’s late low. And then soon trending through it to 2461.50. A rally greeted Europe’s opens at 2468.00, which triggered a quick retracement of the rally. A bounce up to 2465.50 was reversed down to 2459.00. It has reacted back up to 2465.50.

If, then…
Last night’s first low at 2461.50 is also a relevant level from the ranging. Next below it is 2458.50, which has been attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Only a couple of ticks, but enough to undermine the credibility of a recovery attempt. Meanwhile, the last formation has formed an inverted Head & Shoulders. The pattern can be influential intraday during its opening 15 minutes..That’s a long way away, making a retest of the low likelier, thereby destroying the Head & Shoulders. Above all else is yesterday’s Pivot Reversal, which tends to extend immediately, and has.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2461.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2462.745 bias-down target by 10:!5, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2463.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2469.25 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at 7 for Wednesday’s Morning Market or and we have follow through yesterday is Pivot reversal pattern which gapped down in an uptrend rallied new trend extreme and then close down to the gap down forming a pivot reversal regardless of the substantiality up leg or down leg just those three features within the context of trending form the pivot reversal it certainly didn’t help matters for for maintaining the rally that the rally tried to extend and no bias trending that was sponsored by week and that doomed it to fill your pretty much but it’s a pattern that tends to follow through and mediately and in fact it would take a look at the overnight it has fault that I mean literally did fall through immediately extending that a 61-50 that’s been a relevant level the last several weeks bouncing 268 where at your abs opens triggered another downdraft back to the low and threw it to within a couple pics of 5850 which has been nearly escaped a couple times notice that an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has formed here at the low and inverted head and shoulders and it is contextual a correct it’s developing on a retest of a prior low it is symmetrical trending shoulders but level neckline as I said symmetry is well between the duration of their of either side’s development 5850 and hasn’t been touched in a couple level 78 and we know real news unless something external happens or unexpected unscheduled nothing on the calendar that has that kind of influence okay so the markets Aussie lower is it going to break this range if this digging deep overnight where to recover back above 79 that would be bullish otherwise we’re headed to 78 pound still trending down this Capital want to be filled which is interesting that were sitting now at prior Lowe’s so and literally testing the 130 level that had allowed that last rally leg to be identified Looney not losing ground but we don’t have a bottoming pattern in here today or one day of stability is not about him in better and the Euro also stable relative to yesterday not in positive territory but there’s welding to hold this very relevant level golden yesterday and managing them to close one capital influential so  .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Stop me if you’ve heard this one. Monday’s flat open resolved up through the afternoon, closing at session highs. Actually, you haven’t heard that one. Not in a while. Yesterday’s intraday action deviated from the pattern of failed gap up. But it still was contained within the two-week range. And volatility wasn’t substantial, even after getting past the dry cleaners morning.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ending the day testing 2478.00 was not improved upon, and there was no thought of it. Price immediately dived to attack 2475.00, and later spiked down to 2473.50. The balance of the night has been firming, so far attacking 2477.00..

If, then…
Monday’s close left the market its best opportunity for a breakout of the recent range. Closing at its upper-end, after a session of mostly restrained optimism. And now the overnight action’s pessimism has neutralized any optimism. As much as the contrarian perspective is ready to go, the ongoing pattern of intraday ranging hasn’t yet let go.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2478.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2478.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2473.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2472.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying overnight ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report was unusual. Not the ultimate reaction, which found buyers sorely lacking just when needed most — to extend or even to maintain a gap up. The gap did try extending higher, almost creating an anchor that would reliably attract price up to it. But the gap up soon reversed down. I know, shocker. Only a couple of exceptions to reversing gaps up in the past two weeks. This was aggressive, plunging 8-1/2 points during the first half-hour. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open soon firmed and eventually recovered to attack Friday’s 2477.75 post-open high. Hovering there into Europe’s opens found no new sponsorship, and Friday’s 2473.75 cash session close has been retraced, attacking Friday’s 2472.50 futures settle.

If, then…
Ongoing ranging just under prior highs suggests that at least an obligatory new high will print. An ongoing range also suggests that the immediate resolution’s direction is unknown, only that it’s likely to be temporary and that its reaction is likely to be more durable. As the range narrows, the initial breakout is getting easier to anticipate. And presumably closer. In fact, Drudge has an entire section of 4-5 headlines devoted to the stock market’s impending collapse, which suggests near-term timing of an upside direction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2474.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2476.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2478.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it’s Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to or we didn’t have a Saturday review wasn’t really a lot to review as just the same story of course the same story eventually becomes quite a different story in the market but that same story is the ongoing series of gaps up Gap up Gap up a little bit little bit more skip a day Gabba Gabba actually flat butt at the upper end of range cab up and in each case react down not extend higher and then some of these several of these including Friday pretty aggressively react down and so in addition to which you know we’ve had a two week. Quite a few closes just under 2475 around 2474 with very few exceptions to these three these two still right around the range noise around the range in other words nothing happening and as is the case or what tends to happen in a market that is dull and listless is that it resolves of course everything was always eventually it wouldn’t resolves it tends to resolve One Direction and then reverse more substantial in the opposite direction this happens to be a high back on the 27th so Thursday and a half ago and hovering at highs or just under High’s pessimistically short basically ineffectually optimistic holding up without doing anything that by the way tends to have its own resolution at obligatory high now we could have we could have extended down within a few days or a couple of days rejecting a fresh on ice and stead as in happened within a few days or a couple days few days after that it is so couple days few days been working just isn’t finding sellers here it’s going to have to go higher to find them and by the same token it’s not really finding strong-headed sponsorship this is not accumulation it may resolve up and may resolve up initially but it probably finds a pretty good reaction down when it does if it reacts David resolves down first it probably find support for a better balance again back to Fresh highs but we don’t have a pattern in here that he had suggest the rally is going to extend so as for last night no new Clues I don’t have to be if it would shock you to know that we rallied back to the high in fact the only thing shocking here is not that we were indicated to gap opening hours earlier this is not at all reliable for for the opening range but the potential to Gap up is Ben retraced that’s been raised to 7375 that was Friday’s Cashing close Futures with 7250 not reversing in the negative territory and Fridays Gap up itself which followed a head of the employment situation report and did try to probe higher almost creating an anchor there I did try to on Friday that isthis has been the upper end of the range so everyday is an opportunity every open is an opportunity to resume the wrapping up and be the most likely way to get it done or just gradually firm or whatever throughout the day and the last time I went in last 60 to 90 minutes which are not affected by the prior session so in other words because buyers and sellers both failed to gain traction Friday trending today needs to begin by gapping so gapping up camping down Beyond other end of the Friday’s range the open doesn’t Gap then the next opportunity to Rally or decline be on the Range is the last 60 to 90 minutes of the day so if today isn’t going to reject the Gap up and reverse down the session until the last 60 90 minutes could be spent firming 2 proximity just to be in position for the last 60 to 90 minutes to break her will see nothing is indicated at this time as far as which 279 at would have triggered a reaction up did eventually 279 didn’t really react up substantially because it had completed the testing that to avoid a deeper dropping andcouple of sleeper Lowe’s in here they’re basically gaps that could hold could launch recovery account otherwise get food that support and there’s not much other support below silver as well no real asleep or Lowe’s and silver but 1590 1580 potential support just as a correction long bond which stopped just sick stick short with Friday’s blip up on the employment situation report from Thursday’s close just under the target area just hat the prior High seems like it’s really being rejected quickly that pessimism is creepy and it does look that’s a mistake when you rally this far and this much and that that sustainable and I should say that high but it really did set in pretty quickly the highs weren’t really relished barely pierced the prior High so I’m suspicious that the reversal dad is actually going to reverse that we’re not X not going to actually test the high Friday’s high before any kind of reversal if it is a reversal can set it crude oil flat to lower Silesia closer to 4825 or reverse the trend and natural gas when on Friday or before Friday is open satisfy Mondays or Tuesdays love that is but .