The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open had firmed to test 2463.00 before resuming Wednesday afternoon’s decline from its 2474.00 high. Thursday’s close retested last Thursday’s 2430.25 overnight lows down to 2427.75 before the close. Trending into the morning and afternoon bias environment exits were predictive in two different ways. The interim bounce was confirmed as being only a correction, leaving no “unfinished business above.”.

Overnight action’s new info…
The intraday drop extended immediately to fill the 3-week old gap back down to my 2425.25 objective, probing it by 6 ticks. The Globex open began firming, and extended up to 2434.00 during Asia’s opens. Hovering for several hours was supported by last Thursday night’s 2430.25 overnight low. But the fear of Europe’s opens started breaking under that range. The break attacked the earlier lows down to 2424.25, which has reacted again by testing 2430.25 as resistance.

If, then…
Gapping up like last Friday isn’t being attempted this near the open, so it probably isn’t going to happen. Probing lower post-open is almost obligatory at this stage of the pattern, having punished last week’s buyers for impatiently preventing a retest of overnight lows. An intraday test of the long-standing 2425.25 is likely, too, and avoiding it would suggest that buyers are behaving impatiently again. Firming is still possible, and likely if an obligatory fresh low is avoided. Firming might resemble stability, but it would be only anxiousness, still doomed to resolve down. The bearish WedEX’s influence this afternoon suggests another interesting day regardless.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2431.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2434.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2431.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2426.25 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome strangest a little bit late 10 or 15 minutes late here so really this will be brief I mean there’s already one possible resolution to yesterday’s big plunge that is off the table I don’t know if you remember yesterday there was a big Plunge is it was set up because the prior week’s pivot reversal session that told us we were heading down and heading down quickly for substantial for multiple multiple sessions for substantial to substantial degree had been retraced starting Monday and retraced in a in the wrong way and other words there were overnight lows Thursday last Thursday night it hadn’t been rested intraday on Friday really nothing that will keep me lative activity Friday and yet all the sudden Monday was gapping up in Monday gapped up and that told us much more certainly that this what even though it already stopped short of its objective 2425 gapping up told us that was very likely a corrective bounce its objectives at least 2463 and if 2463 didn’t launch the next down leg than 2471 7350 basically back here this Gap would be the would be the launch and so actually that Gap was tested overnight last this Tuesday night it was tested intraday on Wednesday and in both cases held and as expected Wednesday and push price back down and then Thursday we’re in this decline so just to point out this is the first day of a break out from a multi-session range Thursday was the first day of a break out from a multi-session range so today has the pressure of potentially being confirmation a break at is interesting but it still needs to be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close today and it isn’t always last week’s was not in fact Thursday was a break out last week as well then Friday didn’t confirm so it has that when we get to similar setups sequentially so two Thursdays in a row with basically plunge Lowe’s they tend to resolve differently so Friday last Friday resolved without probing of French low with a true testing the overnight lows and last night probably little bit lower and then by the way resolved up on Monday this week this Friday unlikely to duplicate last Friday unlikely to avoid retesting overnight lows unlikely to produce lead that is to a quick of rally so that Plunge and any after that there are permutations as well if we if we know or have reason to expect at least an obligatory fresh little because last week already punished so close in such near term memory last week’s aggressive and patient buyers that created at corrective balance already been punished by retracing all the way back down to last week and through last week slows then we’re unlikely to see that activity again which is one reason why I kept up was unlikely also likely to see the overnight Action Pro so it’s going to be difficult to be a buyer without seeing fresh loves without testing also 24 25 24 25 25 the the long-standing objective remember that being the Gap filling but now off to the left here the Gap that was outstanding you can barely see that back here but it’s not quite and town this morning and further this afternoon essentially the burden of proof is on buyers and we’ll be looking for evidence because bounces in this kind of environment can be sharp even if they can be and they can be substantial even if they can peek short of their objectives but the likelihood is down alright any questions let me know.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to 2469.50 was at or above the two prior sessions’ highs. It was maintained through the open, but not extended until triggering late bias-up. Extending higher into the noon hour peaked upon touching the morning’s 2474.00 bias-up target, which also satisfied an intraday test of 2471.00-2473.50. All of which tracked perfectly against the session’s topping template, including a reaction back down into the prior two sessions’ range at 2462.50. Headlines prevented the reaction from playing out naturally, which probably prevented the last 60-90 minutes from extending down to fresh lows. WedEX triggered passively bearish.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2462.50 low was retested soon after the Globex open. It held as the lower-end of a flat-to-higher range. Europe’s opens triggered a blip-up to 2468.50, which disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared. More so, it retraced several ticks deeper than its origin, attacking the overnight and yesterday’s 2462.50 low.. then rejecting a 2-point blip up by spiking back down sharply to fresh lows at 2461.00.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s last downleg developed exclusively during the 10-15 minutes when the bias environment lapse comes within view. The actual 2:30 lapse didn’t extend the effort that was already underway. This is a bullish setup, essentially a stretched rubber band that snaps back. Which it did, but only to retrace a minimum 61.8% of the stretch. A more impressive snap is likely if sellers don’t control overnight action. So, are they? So far. Even the blip-up at Europe’s opens has bearish characteristics. The best evidence would be in testing the bias-down signal, and then triggering it, or not.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2467.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2471.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2466.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2461.50 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or the critical question this morning is who owns the night and not decisive but it’s not buyers sellers haven’t produced a fresh low but they did take price back down here’s yesterday’s clothes here’s yesterday’s aloe and the overnight low that tested it read tested it remember this is typically a bullish setup bullish meaning that the selling pressure Lancer the back to hear developed not prematurely but it definitely had potential to be to extend it could only have attracted sponsorship which it didn’t did not had not at the right time at 2:30 so it turned out to be not necessarily week and it just fully extended now that did produce a reaction up at 2:30 as of 2:30 no fresh aloe the reaction up measured 61.8% retrace 61.8% of the drop so just a healthy constructive corrective bounce not quite the rubber band snap that it could be but it was the bare minimum if it’s going to be anything more it’s going to be obvious that it’s going to be more at the open and that didn’t get anywhere that premise didn’t improve it all last night tried to here’s your UPS opens Market Edmond ranging flat tire off the over of the overnight lows retest yesterday’s love the market had been ranging flat tire and then flipped up on Europe’s reactions Europe’s opens but only temporarily and have disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared and more so because the origin has been retraced and that’s not letting go so again it’s not decisive who owned the night but it wasn’t buyers and it adds to the bearishness potential bearishness get for the open resumed yesterday’s USA afternoons to climb it adds to the bearishness having bounced to retest yesterday afternoon’s high without probing above it maintaining the probe above it also adding to this morning if there is any so biosignal but it’ll be a helpful indication as to whether sellers are we gaining controller or retaining control from yesterday afternoon’s reaction down and explaining that even deeper holding 2463 especially if 6150 had been touched already holding 2463 is probably going to be an indication that sellers art at least not this morning we’re gaining or asserting their control so the consequence if sellers do take control through the morning the consequence is to launch a new down like at least a retest Friday’s the Gap back to Friday’s close the overnight lows do constitute enough of a new trend extreme because there was a trend reversal signal can play so the overnight lows do constitute enough of a trend extreme Globex Trend extreme that that’s an attraction to and then of course there’s unfinished business below at 2425 this Gap or at least likely attraction to be probed by about four points and a 24-21 so 2421 up to 24 25 and albums it seems more tied to the gyro although it’s not producing fresh Lowe’s in fact producing a relative high or higher and higher low relative to the euro which is probing lowers we just saw in the extended actually much higher overnight basically 7960 that’s not a break out clothes and it’s from an island and so we expect the balance to fail 7960 7965 pretty critical area and pretty good candidate for a balance to fail it tested what would be the trigger that would tell us that the bounce it likely failed it is probably not going to be it’s really not going to be a good trigger intraday probably not going 1995 to the close is just refueling sellers for the bigger dip update the text of the first Tradepost real quickly and then send out this video but essentially she looks like sellers are decisively in control over night I’d like to see a bounce back up into the range a little bit back up to 63 don’t get too carried away otherwise this is going to create a gap down within the range that is difficult to extend out or at least reliable so what it right now to 6461 even gapping Down Under The Lord of the Rings you know if we don’t get down under 59 lot of support 59 this is not as yet.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s choppy sideways range had come within 1 point of the critical 2459.00 trend change signal. That was while trying to fulfill its test, which became required by the morning’s bias parameters (it became “unfinished business below”). Tuesday’s 2468.50 opening high was attacked to within 1 point by a late surge. That was while trying to fulfill its test, which was barely triggered by the afternoon bias exit. All of which developed under the overnight rally’s test of its 2471.00-2473.50 objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late surge  was immediately retraced 6 points back down to 2461.50. Already recovering into Europe’s opens, extending higher has probed 2468.50 up to 2471.25. Its reaction down is testing 2468.50 as support.

If, then…
Testing the rally’s 2471.00-2473.50 objective overnight before Tuesday’s session didn’t prevent retesting it intraday. That test would likely hold. Retesting it overnight is likely to probe higher — until the open, when its retest would be likely to hold. So, extending the current retest of 2471.00-2473.50 all but requires it to be underway pre-open. None of which would ensure maintaining the higher probe, or protecting against reversing  back down sharply, if not already reversing down pre-open like yesterday — the overnight rally is being attributed to an ECB “trial balloon,” which isn’t exactly a stable base. Regardless, the morning will be motivated to seek some sort of equilibrium level ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2471.00 would be likely to trigger the 2468.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2465.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or look at the one minute chart looks like a nice little rally going it’s not small it is 9 points more than under 62 actually 6150 the overnight low to 7125 actually back into yesterday’s pre-open I look over here on the left there’s a 9 Minute chart you can see the overnight rally Monday night’s rally that or Sunday night’s rally in the Monday’s range Monday night’s rally into the overnight High satisfying the 7173 diphtheria to within a tick not retested intra dated and have to be still doesn’t have to be if it’s retested in the same timing windows retested it’s an overnight test if it’s retested overnight it will likely be rude test or be exceeded intraday here’s where that comes out in the bigger picture there’s last Tuesday’s key reversal or pivot reversal started the day with a gap down rally do a fresh Trend extreme and end of the day under the gap down as always the setup gives us almost always gives us a great timing on an immediate move under way of substance and that’s what is tracing and Celine likely enough to keep an eye on and that is and will be all over it and discussion on the in the chartroom give the open is greeted anywhere really back under present levels back under 6850 back under 66 creamy open any lower or probably already finished or tracing the or correcting that is last week’s drop and resuming the decline not resuming the decline otherwise again or to greet the open already above the 7173 50 Area probably 77 280 if there’s another leg pre-open up to 7780 it probably extends 290 otherwise the other likely scenario is that post Oakland isn’t greeted already into the open isn’t it already in Decline but also the pre open doesn’t yet retest last night’s high are the prior night time does and again please let me know if I former actually no yes I did test interesting level of support calculable support from the previous rally scheme it came close to my objective of 78 but not quite retested opportunity to old and form of better bottom gold didn’t get it needed to indicate that selling was satisfied that is 1271 before bouncing and the bouncing get high enough as it needed to indicate that momentum in Reverse. That’s 1285 overnight there’s more weakness or maybe another shot at it you know this is a 6180 retracement it’s a little deeper than that so I’m not really Holding Out for this pattern but having retraced sixty-one 8% of yesterday’s bounce or recovery attempt I’d still give 1285 s recovery a benefit of the doubt it 1285 is recovered to the clothes we will look at that as a bottom as momentum reversing up but there’s only there’s not even one bite of that Apple it’s not happening words extending down silver someone similarly did not did not recover enough it was testing 1670 after test early testing 1660 they came right into my pattern but it did not close above 1670 so it hasn’t extended but still an opportunity close by Beyonce song I will give it everything for the DAP the momentum Traverse tub same thing with the long blonde needed to close above 154 2220 went out testing it held its test actually at least held 154 3154 10 through the clothes is basically coincides of the 4825 and that could circumvent the cell signal I really see that business is really coiling it looks like coiling I know but it’s not this is too organized so I don’t expect for you 25 and 40 even touched to hold and to resume the decline AP reported yesterday after you say reports today it’s not being greeted from the position of strength and then natural gas weaker overnight remember if it wasn’t exploited yesterday one would be likely to it we can get into the.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was just 1 point under Sunday night’s 2455.50 high. The overnight rally resumed immediately, up to the morning’s 2466.50 high. Narrow ranging was supported by the recovery’s 2463.00 likeliest objective. Closing above it would have put into play the next higher objective at 2471.00-2473.50 — which it was, but not decisively. However, 2459.00 was recovered, which jeopardizes Thursday’s trend change signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not being triggered decisively didn’t prevent the 2471.00-2473.50 target from being met, but it might ensure its resistance holds. A surge began simultaneously with Asia’s opens. It extended without hesitation up to 2473.25. The trend didn’t delay reversing back down, into and out of Europe’s opens, piercing yesterday’s highs down to 24165.00. A reaction has bounced up to 2470.00, retracing 61.8% of the reversal down.

If, then…
Thursday’s trend change signal would be saved either by Tuesday’s open breaking back under 2459.00, or by closing under Tuesday under Monday’s 2454.00 low. Overnight action suggests that the open is safe, unless the reversal down were to resume soon. Retesting the overnight high would still encounter the same resistance, with no greater likelihood of exceeding it. Even if sellers aren’t controlling the open, just exiting the morning bias environment in negative territory would keep alive the downside potential.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2469.25 would be likely to trigger the 2467.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2466.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday’s morning market tour interesting the next tire objective after 63 which was actually supportive yesterday if you can see on the three minute chart supportive and then pierced very late in the day momentarily before returning to the ranges upper end and closing above sixty three overlapping it’s on a consolidation utilizing it to not decisively recovering and not to the point where we could reliably expect the next hour objective de me mad at 7173 50 but still being recovered at least led to with ages opens a test of 7173 actually 7350 which was test to do with in three Tix at the 24 also tested was the bias of Target and have the same outcome involved in that means today is and add pound had an opportunity pretty good opportunity here to hold the same 1:30 support but this Gap outstanding that wants to be filled really taking its time explaining that yesterday’s inside session didn’t indicate necessarily that the pattern was breaking lower that’s ineffectual pessimism that as I described yesterday it really stopped short of being optimal ineffectual pessimism because there was no actual test of a prior load Gap Town and spent the entire session negative territory that was but it didn’t Trend down so ineffectual pessimism could have been a little more so if one other feature that is probing April oh and then recovering were present but it wasn’t so the dollar is been rallying overnight pretty much on again less North Korea or less bearish Outlook from North Korea testing support it doesn’t help the Bears case for the purpose of the top but it does require if there is no topping here for there to be almost immediate recovery open this morning a new one got to get back out above 1285 and above 1290 so absent an immediate pretty much immediate recovery above 1290 the risk is that this test of 12 8150 the support weird that might happen once again 1305 leaving a gap so the burden of proof is on overnight they’re not testing support how much.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open arrived after Thursday night’s lows had touched the morning’s 2430.75 bias-down target. The open was greeted 8 points higher, and the morning eventually extended another 8 points more to touch 2446.50. Two interim pullbacks 2436.00 low, the last one firming to close at 2440.00. Thursday’s trend change signal was confirmed, but not its breakout setup.

Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping up and spiking higher at Sunday night’s open immediately found resistance at this morning’s 2445.00 bias-up signal. It soon broke higher to attack the 2450.25 bias-up signal, where more resistance  was immediately found. Hovering there formed an Ascending Triangle until Europe’s opens triggered a breakout. Its surge to 2455.50 has been consolidating.

If, then…
Proximity to the month-old gap at 2425.25 isn’t helping to neutralize it. As we discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review, that was the most bullish scenario. It still is, if the decline were to resume at this morning’s open, without having extended much higher before then, if any. That’s often how overnight, relentless, one-way trending does resume. Otherwise, extending last night’s bounce would track one of the two bearish templates we discussed — launching the next downleg from either 2463.50 or 2471.00-2473.50..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2452.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2450.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exceeding 2447.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2445.00 bias-up signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour just to refresh a little if you weren’t in attendance Saturday I hope you did have a chance to review the Saturday review where we discussed a couple of important things when is a lot of the stuff that led to last week’s decline entered the week was entered that is still fluctuating around that 2472 plus or minus 24/7 X tried getting away from it failed to get away from it 24/7 exhaled for a couple days anyway and then two more days were spent in the climb there’s a trend change in there that wasn’t rejected on Friday so it’s confirmed which says there’s an eventual third lower clothes coming at least an eventual third lower close there’s also a break out Thursday from a different pattern that wasn’t confirmed because there was not a second consecutive lower close two different set-ups two different confirmations now obviously it doesn’t matter if the if there’s a third lower close by one there’s a third lower closed. That least a third load of clothes that’s outstanding so long as the trend change signal isn’t rejected by recovering back above its trigger which is essentially 2459 the interim low 2459 can be tested the through the clothes needs to hold it can be tested up to hire pair of those right here 2463 24 there’s a gap back to 71 cash session 7350 futures so room for probing and intraday but just needs to hold through a clothes and by the way need to hold two two consecutive closes in other words above the level that triggered the trend change which wasn’t rejected on a second consecutive session another day to recover specific reaction characteristics and ascending triangle form there and then at Europe’s opens broke out that’s through the bias of Target now extending even higher to 2455 50 15 50 happens to be the renewed by would be the renewed bicep Target of the bias up Target 5025 is exceeded through 10:15 three hours from now that would put into play the renewed bias of Target had 5550 that’s probably not going to be very relevant to us later but it’s important to note now that patterns do identify that level has resistance so it’s a single-minded or or Relentless One Way overnight trend two things about that one way Relentless overnight Trends often not always often enough to be aware of them though often are reversed at the cash session open if this one is reversed before extending much higher before it gets that bigger correction out of the way then it could extend down and could resume the decline it can take care of that Gap and still be in the process of this leg not having fulfilled or I’m shy refueled Sellers and get that bottom out of the way that’s still possible it requires pretty much resuming the decline at this morning’s open which is often a path that that follows a single-minded or Relentless One Way overnight rally or any trending overnight also as it happens it is often the case that greeting the new week with a with extreme sentiment often proves to be a sentiment extreme not so much counter-trend and that’s what the other night bounces is its counter-trend but it is single-minded Relentless one-way trending for the purpose of the setup I just described as much as it is Extreme sentiment that’s what makes it extreme sentiment and greeting and more so on Mondays or coming out of the weekend with that sentiment extreme or with extreme sentiment often proves to be a sentiment extreme make it to the open without reversing down if the open can hold up without reversing down without putting and save downtrending through the opening 15 minutes of volatility or holding up through the bicep Target some level some setup that keeps the upside momentum intact and we’ll look for a higher highs will look for testing 2459 up to 2463 if not 7173 will look for that KFC open can maintain its Gap up and not put in any kind of a reversal signal there’s some consequences to that down the road that won’t be consequential today but that is what will be looking for today or the other this morning North Korea right but let’s wait to see if they open and I’ll have comments before they open if something were to develop I mean there’s even a somewhat of a descending triangle forming here could be a continuation pattern that won’t help the purpose of extending her this morning that’s early unless it’s maintained through the open alright looking at other markets so the Euro I mean it’s not the highest confidence in this pattern extending a higher to get a second consecutive are closed okay but remember the issue with the euro is that it held here at lower price for an extended amount of time so little suspicious about the bounce it’s coming from in ascending triangle or inverted Head and Shoulders out of the case we can give it some benefit of the doubt that it might get out to higher highs as far as how it’s doing overnight it’s not extending it but it hasn’t rejected that the stage Looney has its own by signal at standing as well which having held 1:30 and we can look back and see that was a critical spot that we anticipated would launch a recovery on its last test it’s being tested pretty aggressively on this test aggressively meaning it’s left unfinished business above in this cap outstanding so back above 130 50 would Target fresh highs not getting it done but that’s the only set up that we have going on in the pound and honestly has created an anchor below so stop being rejected so soon this pull-back is going to extend gold and silver overnight the lower end of the range for buyers bubbling up so not bullish on crude oil and then natural gas this is not a barrage pattern to Surge Thursday morning and then just hover here throughout the balance of Thursday and through Friday now that doesn’t say that the rally extends immediately it’s trying to doesn’t mean it’s going to do so do you still view this as a bottom ever since 1 week ago having closed above all this week ago I’ve enclosed of the prior high for two consecutive sessions after overnight action head retested the low not optimal that prior Friday would have been more bearish try or try at least more pessimistic but it exploded it and gave us indication at that Tuesday close that a bottom was for me and it’s been on a tear since then until Friday or until after reacting to Thursdays eia report there’s room for a pulled back down to 9192 if that doesn’t hold then we come back to to 8182 not fun to be long that but that probably holds if that’s even done if 29192 is even broken let alone test it regardless bottoming pattern alright any questions okay good luck today.