The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
After quickly dipping to test critical support at 2438.00, rallying overnight had ensured Thursday’s open would test 2446.50. Recovering it, or not, would dictate the next significant leg. It held, along with a test of Wednesday’s 2448.50 prior high. Reacting down sharply through the morning pierced the overnight low by 3 ticks down to 2434.50.Bouncing back up to 2444.25 was retraced to test and retest 2438.00 through the cash session close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing into Thursday’s futures close extended back up to the afternoon’s 2444.25 high and held again. The afternoon’s range persisted through the night, attacking and retesting 2438.00. Until a headline triggered a surge that is now attacking 2448.00 (remarks from Trump official Cohn promising tax reform this year).

If, then…
Will today be a case of good cop / bad cop? Wednesday’s inability to rally above a relevant level had warned us of the deeper dip coming Thursday. Thursday’s repeated inability has issued the same warning, but also the offer that gapping up can rally into the weekend. The relevant levels were irrelevant until Cohn’s headline hit overnight. Will Yellen headlines spoil the effect? Lifting the embargo on her remarks isn’t due until post-open — extending the past two sessions’ anxiousness would undermine a gap up. Her actual remarks would end that anxiousness, but probably not favorably if a gap up wasn’t maintained. Either way is significant, because Friday morning biases tend to extend through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2446.50 would be likely to trigger the 2443.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2441.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2438.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2434.00 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Friday at Sanford Friday’s morning market tour and little late action here in that Gary Cohn Trump Administration are they having the Trump Administration presumably as promising tax reform by the end of the year and of course and is liking it here and one other way to phrase that has now liked it it’s already worked its way into the market so unless somebody else is going to reiterate that there is that a fact it’s done and it’s capable of having an effect that is irrelevant the fact that is to maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon 4444 25 high that in itself not reliable enough but gapping up and extending preferably above the mornings 4650 High least would then not really but would probably or at least I would give it is to break out to today’s highs and resume the rally and if we can get it done she was on the East Coast what that is because you know one day one here after Tuesday’s huge rally we got to pull back that just couldn’t complete and couldn’t close above irrelevant level telling us that we were going to head lower 238 which we did yesterday which all the 38 held which is the only reason why we can look for upside today it didn’t produce the clothes above irrelevant level and if we’re not gapping up today as is indicated currently has could be wiped out by anxiousness again ahead of you on if not I’ll reaction to her remarks which otherwise aren’t coming until after they open if we don’t Gap up today this morning to get out of this morass then the next lower level where will go to be looking for buyers is 2429 and if 2429 doesn’t hold then basically we fall off the face of the Earth and and go twenty four 12in sub 2400 so there’s the reasons why we want to be concerned with whether or not we can maintain a gap up let alone whether or not her remarks are released early but technically catalysts technically against get out of Lowe’s retested in the case of silver down to 1690 and again didn’t recover a relevant level and again is bouncing to test relevant resistant 1705 absent to close above 1705 on Silver we still are at least anticipating a retest of 1690 if not a break lower here’s gold somewhat similarly just tested 1288 didn’t retest it yesterday but again hasn’t had any kind of reaction above irrelevant level long Bond kind of boring here but yesterday did not confirm didn’t provide a second consecutive higher close to confirm Wednesday’s breakout didn’t reject it but didn’t confirm it so room for a pullback before resuming the rally 155 22 the deeper pull back it’s likely or unlikely or the longer and longer of the breakout fails to extend but in any case that Gap back down to Tuesday’s close should not be filled in a bullish scenario there shouldn’t be that much weakness get the patterns boys crude oil which did react down from relevant resistance is firming overnight but right back up to Rovan resistance are almost 4795 much more relevant than 75 but so long as it holds still looking for the pattern roll over and finally Natural Gas is dipping a little back to the break a point of this down trending resistance that despite gapping up above with the story that is certainly threatening Supply and the Gulf of Mexico right now with the hurricane closing in bearing down couldn’t explain anything more substantial so it can’t today.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s 14-point drop from 2454.75-2440.50 and Wednesday’s opening 2-point blip-down to 2438.75 weren’t likely to extend. In fact, the drop was retraced to 2447.75 at the noon hour’s high. No relevant Fibonacci measurements are in those legs, nor among any internal legs. The sloppiness kept us leery of extending the recovery, even after its first 6-point reaction down to 2441.50 was recovered entirely before the close. We didn’t have long to wait for proof, as the recovery was retraced entirely into the 2441.50 futures close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The recovery’s retracement was reversed through Wednesday’s Globex open, soon extending 6-7 points down to 2435.25. That was a quick 12 points, which was recovered back up to 2441.50 by midnight. Its 4-point reaction down was recovered to fresh overnight highs into Europe’s opens. Extending higher to 2445.25 retraced 61.8% of yesterday afternoon’s upleg. That’s now being probed by a point.

If, then…
The premise at yesterday’s close was that dipping any deeper would likely be short-lived, and recovered to complete a correction off of Monday’s low. Already rallying overnight would have been challenged by the gap above at Tuesday’s close. That gap would still be the case whenever it is met, if ever, but Wednesday’s pattern wasn’t yet prepared to make that happen. A deeper dip to test 2438.00 had become necessary. Having tested it twice overnight — initially to within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-down target, and then ahead of Europe’s opens, the question is whether its intraday test is also needed. There’s room up to 2446.50 before the answer is likely “no.” Back under yesterday’s 2442.50 cash session close would make an intraday dip likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2446.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2448.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2443.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2440.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s market tour where are we 4625 being tested 4625 is four and a half points positive territory versus yeah that’s right bounce bounce and shut down to 30 that down to 40 something non-specific 238 but this 38 actually have to be touched intraday Tim completed that test what we ought to know soon because the measurements of this rally basically put a line in the sand at 4650 if today’s open can get out of up 4650 then we get out of the very big magnetic attraction down 238 or at least risk down 238 it’s a lot of risk unusual amount get out of and will be able to put that aside play we are from it alright any questions about any of that let me know meanwhile real quickly through currency reasserting its downside pound didn’t Forum that Buy Signal that would have qualified above Tuesday’s High closing book Tuesdays how yesterday after knowing we’re going to be dipping French Lowe’s that plane down trending playing of support downtown and support support come too so we still have room for a bounce back up to that level and in fact that was likely and is playing out presumably but we can have to prove that Looney yesterday has anything about that.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 6-point gap up to 2433.00 surged to quickly fulfill the minimum likely objective, which was to retest Friday morning’s 2439.50 high. The rally extended through the session — relentlessly and substantially, extending the open’s buy signal while holding every pullback limit’s test — up to 2454.00. A last-minute dip to 2450.50 held the 61.8% retracement from Wednesday’s 2474.00 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open quickly touched what is this morning’s 2454.50 bias-up signal’s resistance, and then began reversing down. First attacking what is this morning’s 2446.00 bias-down signal, a 5-point bounce resolved down for its retest down to 2445.25. Its reaction has only bounced 3 points so far.

If, then…
Although a lot of buying pressure was expended and fulfilled yesterday, potentially completing a corrective rally, already trending down overnight is a little suspicious. The bias-down signal and a session-long decline setup are being threatened, but only being threatened at this point. And there’s room down to 2438.00 before confirming a new downleg has begun. Absorbing the overnight dip and not triggering either of the bearish opening setups could be rewarded by extending the corrective rally to 2461.00 today or tomorrow morning — at least by retesting yesterday’s high.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2443.00 would be likely to trigger the 2446.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2447.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or it has pretty much been straight down overnight and it was pretty much straight up yesterday so just mirror images of the same price action not exactly yesterday’s straight up from back here 233 overnight had rallied substantially from about 26 had rallied substantially didn’t hang on but rallied substantially pulled back and Trigger to buy signal pretty quickly at 35 that pretty quickly. Jective of retesting Friday mornings High’s 2439 50 and kept going and going and going pretty much to the balance of the session was a late dip that closed 5125 5150 which just to put that in perspective this is last week’s high and 70 2474 which was a the mornings by step Target which test is the first time in today after having tested overnights 7173 50s corrective balance limit so yesterday’s clothes basically held a 61.8% retracement of that leg that damn leg nice natural correction not as silly the end of the road notwithstanding the overnight drop that since then since it’s bending all of that buying pressure intraday and actually let’s go one minute spending all of that since it was the sponsorship of one by or at least Down Under the bias environment slow with trigger a session long decline this already took some of that pressure off that late rally but you know is a session longer aliamanu still look at his bearishly and in the context of a session long decline if yesterday’s by its environment low his broken through the open so what 4625 4650 not triggering by here 30 minutes and then break up And loud saying and now firming further it failed to recover 1705 yesterday so I’m suspicious until it is recovered and even then needs a couple of consecutive higher closes to confirm that is not in the process of rolling over same thing with gold flirted with its 1288 cell signal and didn’t recover any relevant level it’s firmer overnight firming but not above any relevant level which would need to be recovered and then confirm that a second consecutive bases before that would be credible for overcoming the likelihood that is resolving down Longmont didn’t really give up within this range.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s opening probe under Friday’s low and the overnight low down to 2415.75 didn’t spend the morning under pressure. It was recovered up to 2429.50 at the noon hour’s high. Another shallower dip to 2422.75 was recovered almost entirely into the close. But no relevant level was recovered through a relevant timing window. The morning’s 2414.25 bias-down target became “unfinished business below.”

Overnight action’s new info…
Surging into Asia’s opens was extended up to 2434.50 and consolidated back down to 2432.00. Later rallying ahead of Europe’s opens up to 2437.25 was retraced much faster back down to its 2432.00 origin. And eventually lower to touch yesterday’s 2429.50 noon hour high. Bounces have been trying to chip away at 2432.00 resistance. .

If, then…
Retracing Monday’s opening dip doesn’t equate to rejecting it. Extending higher overnight doesn’t equate to reversing the trend. But yesterday’s bounce still has potential to extend up to Friday morning’s 2439.50 high as described yesterday morning. Last night’s rally did create a lot of room to expend selling pressure without yet reversing back down, and even the 8-point drop from overnight highs has remained in positive territory. It is difficult to sell this pattern in positive territory this morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2432.00 would be likely to trigger the 2430.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday at Sanford Tuesday’s morning market tour it’s been all positive territory overnight and that even includes this 8-point drop it’s one of the benefits of a rally is it creates room to expand its selling pressure without that selling pressure damaging the charter damagingly pattern the rally getting that selling pressure out of the way so buyers can resume seems to be what’s going on yesterday had begun by probing meet Lee prepping the overnight low Friday’s low but only briefly back when the by its environment began the probe under Friday’s low is already been recovered or on the cusp and extended hire through the bias environment lapsing and into the new towers high again. Necessarily bullish but creating room to absorb sewing pressure before I could damage the chart and it did allow at 6184 traisman back to the tip the back to the Crux of it Dad has extended higher overnight and held up through the afternoon but it didn’t recover yesterday any relevant level that was going to indicate momentum It reversed are the trending River stuff that is extending higher initially overnight this is last night ages opens then consolidating hovering here this is not your UPS opens its anticipating your UPS opens which was interesting because your abs opens while they fought for avoided extending a three-day losing streak that’s really why overnight and rallied didn’t extend and maintain on that and right back down but then again that’s eight points of selling pressure and still in positive territory at the low 2925 so well into positive territory sideways I fully expected to feel it’s probably what happens what the objective is that is so long as positive territory is maintained we may even be higher than this as we get into the open but that is the pattern that’s under way corrective bounce weather in 24 40 or higher and there’s overnights line is a correction I look at the markets so I’ll see not extending but it does have room up to 7965 before suggesting something more substantial is underway then just a corrective belts the pound stopping short again 120 935 in order to react town that’s a fresh low when 2820 I’m going to be able to lower the Buy Signal on that but it’s not something I would buy them this year you see how it’s playing out I want to see the clothes if the clothes can recover back above say 128 75 then 12875 to 129 then I would consider this to be bottoming basing at least and preparing to launch recovery it’s really the only set up that is half formed little even close to fully formed in the pound Moody which is come up to resistance at 7965 testing an overnight and having tested it at all back under and 7915 7920 would reverse momentum down and finally the Euro which it filled a gap here another Gap that’s after filling the Gap back to Wednesdays close on Friday basically extended hired and fill the prior Friday’s close that really getting any follow-through to that but perhaps as Testament to that Gap fill being durable reacting Back Down Under 118 back down to one 1765 which even though it’s a cell signal you can see the support here it is influential produced brakes but nothing really durable yet or substantial silver has no unfinished does not require gold that being stocks falling apart well look at if we get to 2440 early crude oil seemingly resuming its decline I’m switch cover or rolled coverage for it in the blog to October but you can see just as last reference point 4047 75 or newing the brake lower after 4875 held the bounce all fluctuating around the 4825 cell signal that it previously treated and previously been productive down to 4645 basically almost that’s all bases sap and a bouncing overnight back to the 4775 level so basic screwed there’s not a big difference about a $0.20 premium bases crude are outside basis October October bases so long as 45 continues to hold as resistance the decline has resumed having held a bounce 249 or and 4895 and then still all while circulating around or fluctuate fluctuating around that 4825 4845 that’s going to be the big Line in the Sand now but a second consecutive lower clothes under 4795 preferably under yellow would help to confirm that a retest of the losses in play reports after today’s close but this is not a position of strength .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s opening drop probed under prior lows at 2419.50. Under all prior lows, including the prior Thursday night’s 2430.50 overnight low. And stayed there, until the bias environment began lapsing.This created an anchor that helped doom to failure a rally into the noon hour’s 2439.50 high. The WedEX’s bearish influence helped, too. Regardless, the afternoon slid back down into the morning’s range to test 2424.00 into the close. The morning’s anchor was probed, but not broken.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up a couple of points and extended several more to 2431.50. Dipping back under 2428.25 signaled momentum reversing down, and soon it was all retraced to probe under 2424.00 again. And again, and again. The last probe slid into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking Friday morning’s 2419.50 low to within 1 tick. Its reaction got steep and touched last night’s 2428.25 sell signal. That has been consolidating back down to Friday’s 2424.50 cash session close as support.

If, then…
Retracing all of Friday morning’s anchor during Friday’s session could have held to establish a durable bottom. The delay reflects optimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Stopping optimistically short of touching Friday’s low overnight, and already surging, also prevents a durable bottom from forming. But it does help to refuel sellers. Regardless of whether the opening print is a gap up from Friday’s close, the bearish WedEX influence should help to push price lower through the morning. The WedEX’s lapsing influence doesn’t prevent the afternoon from trending down, too. Only having ranged overnight doesn’t prevent post-open action from trending down sharply. And only recovering 2434.00 through a relevant window would start to suggest further downside can be delayed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2434.00 would be likely to  trigger the 2430.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2423.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2421.25 bias-down signal

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour awfully you’ve had an opportunity if you didn’t attend the Saturday review to actually watch the Saturday review recording the first oh and 20-25 minutes is often enough to get the gist of what the markets are trying to say what its challenges are and what its intent is then also what the different strategies are for Sunday night Monday last night was interesting because remember and it is the big focal point is that the big focal point of the I’m going to climb this time trying to actually reverse the trend down that Friday morning actually broke under all prior lives not just continued trending down but broke under the prior Thursday’s Lowe’s which is been the lows for the brake lower for the first leg down spent that way which by the way that’s not that big a deal that can cut either way that can be absorbed and reverse backup or extend down or but timing is what I told us will if the open were greeted already in Decline selling off and not waiting until the last 60 90 minutes before the open to start doing so or resume doing so but just bottom line is the overnight dip stopping short of launching new Lowe’s the reaction up that’s back into positive territory none of that in fact all the way back up to the cell signal at 24 2825 that I identified initially overnight none of that is necessarily bullish it’s the Post open Action that will be bullish or bearish and various wed x Wednesday expression influence that was confirmed on Friday afternoon suggests that whatever the open gapping up flat down Post open Action through the morning will trim down and the overnight slope however shall we might consider that doesn’t prevent a steeper slope in the morning so what might change our mind on that and that is a couple things well at 10:15 of course the bias up signal 2430 if it triggers even then 2430 is bias up signal won’t prevent or won’t be sufficient on its own it’ll be helpful but it won’t be sufficient on its own to prevent turning down temporarily for the morning that’s unusual but it happens really through the open it be open if pre-open action word to extend if pre-open action were to get the open and then the opening 15 minutes through 2434 2434 then we would start to suspect sellers aren’t going to take control this morning or be assured of this morning that wouldn’t prevent them being assertive in the afternoon and by the way being assertive in the morning wouldn’t prevent them still being assertive in the afternoon but if the open can recover 2434 or if it 1015 the bias up signal 2430 where the trigger those would suggest or start to suggest this morning and bear is wed x might not be an issue alright let’s look at other markets any questions that post it to the trim or that same day so its not that its I can’t be retested it’s just not an attraction there are higher Prairie lose up around 1300 if close about 1300 we can really 1301 and we can start to our 1302 and we can start to suspect that perhaps this leg is extending but otherwise it’s at risk of topping Long Pond doing well with or at least firm with vs under pressure crude oil which had extended down up at cell signal 4825 came back to test its cell signal clothing back about 4875 would suggest the downside is done or at least in the near-term that’s some big are corrective bounces underway like a probe of prioritize about 50-50 10 otherwise signaling down and there’s.