The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Is this week’s rally the product of constructive strength, or of excessive optimism? Regardless, the character of each higher objectives test has contained shallower and briefer pullbacks, with less and less pessimism. Tuesday’s close above 2438.00 had only touched 2448.00 intraday instead of closing above it. So, Wednesday’s open still had to absorb weakness before resuming the recovery, despite having rallied briefly overnight to 2454.00. Recovering 2454.00 Wednesday extended to within ticks of 2461.00. Thursday’s gap up leap-frogged over that fulfill 2469.00 through the open. Breaking higher into the afternoon bias environment’s exit extended to 2474.25. It was unusually optimistic ahead of Payrolls, which the market seemed to realize, too, as the close dropped sharply back down to 2469.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging has worked its way slowly higher back up to 2474.25 through Europe’s opens. A reaction down to 2471.00 has recovered more aggressively to fresh highs, now attacking 2477.00.

If, then…
The next higher objective is 2477.00. Its test isn’t required, but its test would allow us to infer meaning from its reaction, which wouldn’t otherwise be available. There’s still some meaning to derive from only attacking it. Avoiding its test yesterday and dipping back down to 2469.00 told us the rally shied away from rejecting the corrective bounce label. That keeps the door open today to fresh highs being retraced. Back under 2469.00 through a relevant timing window — especially if 2477.00 were first tested, but not necessarily — could tell us the trend is reversing down. Regardless, a lot of optimism has developed ahead of the Employment Situation report. Granted, it’s significance this month is being downplayed, so not already retracing a favorable reaction or actually reversing down through the open could trend up into the three-day weekend. An unusual econ calendar has several other high-profile influential reports coming post-open, too.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2474.00 would be likely to trigger the 2472.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2469.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market or its September it’s the last it’s the first day of the month we have a employment situation report coming out in the morning interesting lady that is quite possibly not going to be the most relevant economic report of the day it’s being downplayed considerably that may account for have so much optimism has been developing this week but not so much this week and it we were pretty oversold and there was a pretty negative event with North Korea to stretch that rubber band but this close to the report itself Thursday’s Gap up notwithstanding to Trend up even more so into the prior afternoon not that it was maintained but still that it can be volatile ahead of the employment situation report is unusual it’s unusual to have the employment situation report released around several other reports look at the economic calendar report that I put out the day before you know here’s the employment situation report normally that’s all you’d see and count but the weekly recount but today not only is there it was is being a three-day holiday weekend I mean good just this being a Friday with two days of a liquidity but this being a three-day holiday weekend when we’re going to see a lot of volume disappear after we get through the reactions the mid-morning reactions to the news to the Post open news if the markets on trajectory if it’s got some momentum behind it to extend it can keep going whichever direction it’s already put in a plate alright so I’ll have levels on screen as we getting to be open I don’t usually play crude oil overnight had come within a dime of the 4550 Target and then snapped back up second consecutive are closed today and we will give that every benefit of the doubt that the downside is done at least for near-term purposes of a bigger rally but it’s that makes a pretty critical day if today does not close hire more so if today closes under prioritize like under 4650 then we’ll very much look for the decline to have resumed and Cindy obviously resuming sooner rather than later so critical day today the natural gas which reacted well to the eia report yesterday itself is a breakout needing one more second consecutive are closed today to confirm that the big bottoming pattern we’ve been tracking his done alright let’s in the recording here if there’s any questions go ahead and post .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s brief surge to 2454.00 had given a glimpse of what could be accomplished intraday. But having retraced it all, buyers first had to absorb the open’s probe under the 2445.25 overnight low [view a video description of the setup here]. This completed a bullish setup that all but required retesting the overnight high. It was retested coming out of the noon hour, also fulfilling the next higher objective above 2448.00. Extending through it hesitated upon attacking the next higher objective at 2461.00. A last-minute dip to 2453.00 was retraced entirely.

Overnight action’s new info…
Recovering Wednesday’s late dip soon extended through the Globex open to attack the afternoon’s highs. Ranging narrowly there into and out of Europe’s opens had dipped to the consolidation’s 2457.00 lower-end. Then a two-hour rally extended to fresh highs at 2465.00. It was corrected down to 2460.00 as the Euro tumbled.

If, then…
It has been two powerful up days since noting Tuesday evening that N. Korea’s missile launch may have been the bullish development the market could have “hoped” for. Wednesday rallied 15 points from Tuesday’s 2445.00 close, 17-18 points off of its opening dip. Tuesday’s 22-point low-to-high intraday rally (27 points off the overnight low) was mostly retracing its gap down, and netted only a 2-3 point gain on the day. I highlighted in the latest Market Tour that Tuesday’s ~2426.00 opening low and yesterday afternoon’s ~2460.00 high are essentially equidistant from Tuesday’s pre-missile 2443.50 close. This is a 100% swing, and it is no more likely than was a 100% recovery of the knee-jerk selling to reward buyers that had absorbed it. Either of those should extend to its next Fiboinacci value. The next higher likely objective above 2461.00 is 2469.00, which coincides with downtrending resistance off of July’s high. Any higher, and the “corrective bounce” label would get pretty thin.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2461.75 would be likely to trigger the 2460.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2457.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday Thursday August 31 so it’s the last trading day of the month and often there are position jockeying influences undercurrents overt currents that can influence price action especially into the afternoon we have the employment situation report tomorrow and we had a teepee yesterday Challenger job got report this morning jobless claims at 8:30 and that’s just on the job front there’s also Chicago PMI Chicago PMI is interesting because it comes out at 9:45 publicly it’s released privately to the institutional investors several minutes prior to that it’s not a vitamin or sell that is thing the reaction to the privately released report tends to be repeated or extended when released publicly so keep that in mind I don’t see any fed speakers scheduled doesn’t mean there aren’t any interesting night overnight you know first of all just contact we were on our way back down we were at least needing to dip to the 2729 area when Tuesday hopefully after the clothes Kim Jeong Hoon North Korea North Korea triggered launched a missile over Japan and sent everybody into a tizzy dad to 2421 ultimately Post open to 26 x 26 25 27 29 and then rallied a lot off the low Tuesday just a little bit into positive territory but in devising of territory after being down a lot and yesterday’s opening dip saved when had been reaction down probing 2454 having held 38 from or recover 38 from testing 2729 putting in the play 48 putting in the plate 54 here’s that overnight 54 that was saved by the opening set up a Globex set up and we went through the next hour objective being 2461 2460 was attacked yesterday and 2460 actually back under 24 5675 would have put that away 2461 would have been shelved and we would have been playing defense had the by its environment exit probe it had Final hours entry probed it wasn’t until very late when we knew it was going to be temporary actually could have been deeper but it was returned to the clothes pencil 21 stays alive and in fact overnight 2461 ultimately Play Pretty bullish on that get out of of 6425 through the open and then we’re looking at the bias parameters biased parameters for the morning which 6075 being tested here as support is the bicep signal 6160 75 bicep Target at 6625 but really the next higher objective 66061 song The Way if 61 is recovered the next higher resistance is really 69 which interesting Lee comes in at or coincides today with downtrending pivotal resistance off the highs actually bisecting the high that’s the point of a pivotal resistance line so trigger by ass up and we could really if we can get out of the open hasn’t put it on here not just above 63 but above 6464 25 could get to 69 that’s when the next threat comes in and having rallied considerably two days in a row having rally not just not a lot Tuesday but a lot of buying pressure expended anyway from the overnight low and intraday low and then following through yesterday this being the third day of such a rally if it’s one-sided and seemingly optimistic of really optimistic perhaps we can get to 69 today we could also get back down to 50 today 50 50 we could see big reversal pattern intraday today if 69 is tested and held early enough that sellers can still come in especially ahead of a three-day holiday weekend that’s one set up if the open isn’t being maintained if there’s another one of those setups like yesterday greeted the open after probing her overnight at work why we’re quite a ways away from the overnight low the overnight low was still lower it was still 10 points under the overnight High don’t worry about that on this pattern but it’s a different pattern is very shallow support area that was easily or more easily broken before yesterday’s open where is this is a pretty wide relatively wide support area it’s also and also has more pessimism in it having stopped pessimistically short of yesterday’s high where the shallow consolidation trying to support Tuesday night’s reversal was optimistic it was probing above Monday’s high they’re both Tuesdays High soap probably not going to get the same set up this morning that we had yesterday he even if there’s a reversal down there if it were a reversal down that far so the question would be whether back into yesterday’s Post open again it’s all within the context of being a corrective bounce question where does it finish correcting or the sellers feel like coming back in remember that the whole recovery from Tuesday’s Tuesday’s fabricated low the artificial low was 100% swing through yesterday’s high that’s just not going to be the end of a correction but now we’re getting into end of Correction levels alright other markets as I mentioned the Euro was taking it hard extending down it is testing one 1957 1850 so we’re back down into this range back down into the original Buy Signal for this extended Lake needs to recover deposited territory today to avoid a deeper pulled back its second consecutive lower close Ludy also still under pressure with a bounce a minute 79-45 the pound is weaker a relatively fresh low but that doesn’t change that there’s a gap up above all prioritize and wants to be filled let alone that part of that session was a confirmed Breakout so it’s a pretty good spot to hold when 2865 having been there by signal good candidate for a low of the fullback and the Odyssey which and already indicated by its failed probes above 79-65 resistance that gets head and shoulders inverted Head and Shoulders move was slowing and had a big down day yesterday kind of creeping lower here not rejecting that big down day another words so the lower end of that and shoulders likely to be probed gold it a flash crash last night it’s recovered entirely at least entirely to sit back about 1350 that needs to hold as long as it holds back  .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping down 20 points at Monday’s Globex open in reaction to North Korea’s actions produced an overnight range largely defined as 2423.00-2436.50. It was centered around the decline’s 2427.25-2429.00 objective that had become likely when last week’s tests of 2438.00 had failed to end the decline. Tuesday’s opening bar printed all of 2427.25-2429.00, which immediately launched a session-long rally up to 2448.50. The last half-hour consolidated down to its 2445.00 close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday night’s Globex quickly recovered to probe Tuesday’s high by 1 point. Ranging narrowly at 2449.50 spiked up into Europe’s opens testing 2454.00. Little time was spent there before sliding back down into Tuesday’s range.

If, then…
Touching 2448.00 yesterday required closing above it to be bullish. Not closing back under 2438.00 prevented it from being bearish. But it’s not a reliable base for extending the recovery. The reaction to testing 2454.00 resistance highlights the thin sponsorship. Testing it intraday isn’t required, and it’s no likelier to hold. But having probed the prior session’s high overnight, maintaining an open under the overnight low usually puts the morning on defense. And there’s room down to 2438.00 if only to build a better recovery base.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2453.25 would be likely to trigger the 2450.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2446.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning market tour second Tuesday in a row something about Tuesday’s huge intraday one-way skis me Relentless rally not that the last one accomplished anything durable and not that this one will but there’s a chance chance this was a really big test is open 24 25 2429 objective that was never required tried and tried to hold the opportunity so the prior sessions range overnight his reversed to open an exit be opening 15 minutes open under the opposite end of the other night range so they overnight high was probed exiting the open under the overnight low would be bearish barish to 2438 if not 35 head again on the first shot probably limited to that and maybe that’s the only shot they’re probably bounce to some degree from there so the upside is going to need to hold positive territories going to need to avoid 2445 or if there is a pro Bender 2445 is going to need to recover it preferably before the open and not look back or at least isolate any kind of dip under 45 to the opening 15 minutes and already have recovered it back about 48 that would be bullish or would put the bullish spin back in or just already be back and rally mode 5050 5050 is the bias of signal it gets to 5750 and probably 261 say the clothes next lower objective that didn’t hold 13 10:50 and not even an objective just pulled back them it under 13 1050 would indicate that despite having his Gap up outstanding above all prioritize that would want to be retested which by the way is a break out or amount to do a breakout multi-session range even after Friday’s gyrations still ended in the range Monday was a break out Tuesday was it’s confirmation so we know however deep the pull back stretches there’s at least a third of ential her clothes outstanding and last night did dip to attack 13 10:50 which you can see it support so there’s no Assurance of recovering 13 1850 1319 this morning but that’s basically Now by signal Buy Signal it gets back to the high someone similarly on Silver but not as stretched just slightly deeper 1780 Target outstanding not the same break out and confirmation but being a company and hire a company company and gold higher Long Pond has higher highs overnight that weren’t retested intraday they were attacked before sliding stopping not in the silly optimistically short of lower price but there is that room coming stop short twice filling the Gap testing lower paralyzed if that Gap is filled at the lower price or touched it’s probably to be probed dead + 15616 + – crude oil still under pressure flat to lower then a lower overnight but the drain remains and play down to the next targeting 45.58 reports this morning it’s not being greeted from a position of strength and then Natural Gas natural gas on Monday this huge fluctuation  .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Like Friday’s open, Monday’s gap up to 2448.25 was too shallow to be maintained. Friday’s had more optimism to express — first extending higher before resolving down, and then still holding positive territory. Monday’s gap up was reversed down immediately, but only briefly probed into negative territory — just long enough to fulfill the morning’s 2439.75 bias objective below. The low also touched 2438.00, which had no bullish reason to be retested, but its reaction into the close touched 2444.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Any higher into the close would have triggered a buy signal. I can’t divulge whether Kim Jong Un is a subscriber, but his timing was otherwise perfect. Lobbing a missile over Japan spiked the Globex open down more than 20 points to 2423.50. Recovering up to 2433.00 was eventually pierced by 2 ticks to touch this morning’s bias-down target ahead of Europe’s opens. That triggered a second downleg to 2421.00, which just bounced up to 2427.75.

If, then…
Retesting 2438.00 Monday was already likely to be probed down to 2427.25-2429.00. And it was not at all assured of holding hold as support, let alone launching a better recovery. Probing 6-8 points under it overnight doesn’t make it any less likely to hold. That’s because knee-jerk reactions to headlines are generally weak-handed. The external motivation can crowd out organic strong-handed distribution. Happening overnight can even exacerbate the situation. This might be the most bullish scenario the market could have “hoped” for. All of which assumes, of course, that Kim doesn’t fire a second salvo, or that his foes don’t escalate matters. Regardless, 2411.75 and sub-2400.00 may yet be tested intraday in before even the most bullish resolution.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2429.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2433.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal next targeting 2427.25. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2439.00 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or we’ve got really interesting swing over night of course that doesn’t even reflect it all that yesterday we came into the closed ahead of the clothes we had to buy a signal that would have triggered 4425 it was touched not even if the cash and clothes really well I have some clothes but it’s by the way so there’s a chance to and get down you’re doing it overnight also exacerbates the effect is well maybe we don’t gap down that much could we could open say 35 dip down to 2927 and then recover and I don’t want to put any limits on it recovery I know what to put in the expectations on it recovery because it could just come back to fill the Gap back yesterday’s clothes 43 area and then resolved down it would cut it could recover 43 and put in a bigger bounce 261 we could even be looking at that bigger rally 277 so I don’t want to put any expectations on the ultimate recovery just to see the open Weather recoveries even going to be the next big leg wherever the open is again 24 3536 area probably but dip to 2729 and then recover that’s the likeliest opening scenario weather again whether it’s just a fill the Gap at the essays close 43 extend to 6177 still vulnerable T2 resume into the climb from one of those and that’s if 2729 holds toy 429 doesn’t even have to support doesn’t even have to hold down anyway Not Unusual pattern and so from this point on any selling is it has all this extra room now to be absorbed before it can actually affect affect the upside silver slightly short of its upside potential 1780 hanging upside turmoil long Bond Big Move higher remains very the outside remains very much intact this has been an ongoing bottom really we started tracking the bottom back of 152 and now trading back to and through the prior High and you can’t really see it in here let me get rid of some of this somewhat of a cooling effect coming into the high maybe a little bit of a dip possible that it 156 24th will really to fill the Gap back to what would then be as close to get back to you soon as close but a lot of upside Potential from there and then crude oil actually flat here but yesterday’s performance Albany Shores 4550 the next large active which API by the way released after today’s and play yesterday and we’ve been tracking me .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2446.00 and its immediate surge to 2453.50 were retraced entirely through the morning bias environment. Filling the gap back down to Thursday’s 2441.00 close was able to hold. At least for the purpose of injecting a 61.8% retracement of the post-open drop. And having corrected it, the balance of the session fell back to the morning’s low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Actually, Friday’s last dip attacked the morning’s low. Sunday night’s open sliced through it, touching what had been Thursday’s 2437.50 cash session close. Consolidating narrowly under Friday’s lows was jarred loose at Europe’s opens, which triggered a smaller spike down to 2436.25. That didn’t extend, and was soon retraced. Then reversed into positive territory up to 2444.50.

If, then…
Testing 2438.00 support had become likely after Wednesday’s pullback failed to recover. So, it was tested Thursday down to 2434.50. The pullback had potential for extending to 2429.00 if Friday did not gap up sufficiently, which it did not. Not gapping up sufficiently this morning maintains that potential for extending the pullback down to 2429.00 — and the open is currently indicated flat-to-lower. A recovery needs to become very obvious very soon if it will avoid a deeper pullback. Not gapping up could still firm or bounce through the morning without yet reversing back down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2444.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2439.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to her a little bit of a surge here which interesting because 2443 is Friday’s cash session close Friday’s cash session closed equates to 2443 that is after Friday afternoons last down leg last dip back down to the mornings low where’s a Futures close at 4215 but cash is some clothes acquitted 243 and remember it was it was a pretty extended shallow but thoughtful or I may be trudging is a better word recovery a 61.8% recovery of the mornings drop and that morning drop was not unpredictable at all it wasn’t necessarily going to happen in the morning but it was going to happen because Friday is open didn’t Gap up sufficiently at least didn’t extend its Gap up to be sufficient and extending higher extended higher too late to be maintained and extended higher to neutralize attraction above and that was the gap the Gap back to Tuesday’s close so Friday is open gapped up it didn’t extend above Friday’s High’s Thursday’s hi sorry filled the Gap neutralized that attraction in other words got on with the rejection and never turned negative never turned negative and which is interesting because won’t fill the gap on the reaction down from the Gap back to Thursdays 2441 closed Thursday’s session clothes was 3750 + 3750 didn’t require being tested but it was pretty shallow man certainly kept alive the bearish scenario because Friday is reaction down stop optimistically short another word from a contrarian perspective potentially nourish and retraced its own attraction so to speak the 6180 retracement hand responded to it so 3750 is a traction or what is really another test of 38 remained alive remains alive hand because 38 when it was tested Thursday wasn’t able to produce a sustainable recovery it’s really intraday if 38 is riposte open it probably won’t hold maybe during the time that might be able to hide rarely enforced into positive territory but temporarily that fell back down to Fresh Lowe’s that’s your UPS opens right there breathe breathe and rejected as you can see so and the Odyssey will come back to last week doesn’t have to be tested to that degree but being an inverted Head and Shoulders once its objective is tested because very vulnerable to reversing back down to and through the head and shoulders pattern holding on they were down earlier but they’re not down now and not down so holding on suggesting upside remains intact gold will be rolling coverage forward blowing coverage forward at the clothes are at the day we spot today it’s not going to make a difference to the trending down targeting 281 basis set which is about $0.03 I think it’s raining in a $0.03 discount to October so to 8134 bases October would be the objective but nothing about this pattern says that that’s going to be avoided to make a difference .