Market Wrap

Friday’s session exemplified the consequences of not recovering a prior high, as Thursday’s recovery had failed to do. The overnight slide was a healthy 61.8% correction of Thursday’s recovery. And it reacted up to within 1 point of Thursday’s highs. But it was retraced entirely back down to the overnight low.

The healthy correction was still that, but there was less to show for it. Or more. There was less to show for the intraday correction, because its recovery effort stopped short of the overnight high. Perhaps it was healthier, anyway, since the alternative was avoided — the session only ranged sideways.

Overnight action had suggested Friday would resolve in one direction, or the other. It didn’t, and it didn’t. Choppiness aside, the range held. The week’s lowest close was still within the range. Holding the range also means sellers didn’t retake control. There remains potential for retesting last Sunday night’s 2403.00 high by 2 points, and higher. And there remains outstanding at least one more new high close.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

There’s NO Saturday Review on holiday weekends (Happy Mother’s Day!). The chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night with Globex trading here.

Retesting Sunday night’s 2403.00 high, at least up to 2405.00 and probably up to 2415.00, had relied on holding this week’s lows as support. At least, retesting the highs without first dipping to 2375.00 or lower. This week’s lows broke sharply down to 2379.00 as the morning’s bias environment was entered. It held a retest while RSIs diverged positively. And it was reversed relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment’s exit.

The open’s gap down had touched 2392.25 before plunging through the morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal. The intraday recovery touched 2393.25 into the afternoon bias environment lapsing. The balance of the session ranged around 2391.75.

Decisively recovering 2391.75 would have been more bullish. Decisively recovering it upon entering the bias environment would have been even more bullish. Closing back above the week’s prior lows was the least bullish bullishness, remaining in the orbit of Sunday night’s highs. The high’s retest and probe remaining likely near-term so long as Friday’s open isn’t rejecting Thursday’s recovery.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s bias environment exit was positioned well for rallying to new highs into the close. The noon hour’s exit printed a fresh post-open high above the bias environment’s high. All of which was pessimistically short of the morning’s 2397.00 bias objective, despite it already having been met to within 3 ticks.

Reacting down under 2393.50 would have rejected the opportunity to trend up to new highs through the close. But the bias environment exit dipped to touch 2393.50. And despite recovering completely, the last half-hour also dipped to touch 2393.50. But neither dip probed any lower, and each was recovered back to session highs — touching 2397.00 at the close.

The morning’s rally was this week’s first, but it was relatively shallow. Hovering there through the afternoon didn’t exploit opportunities to reverse down. This combination of restrained optimism and ineffectual pessimism can still launch an upleg to new highs. Trending higher overnight remains more likely than probing fresh lows for the week, other than an overnight dip that is isolated before the open.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday gapped up thanks to an overnight rally. That rally had begun late enough to have been single-minded and relentless and prone to the open reversing. And that rally had begun early enough not to have been the product of weak-handed latecomers that patient sellers the open often easily absorbs. It was the Goldilocks rally. It was just right.

Which was wrong.

The gap to 2397.75 didn’t extend immediately. Not until after the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed, when it surged to 2400.00 into the top of the hour. And held. The morning’s bias environment then slid to unchanged. The noon hour slid, too, probing negative territory, which the last half hour’s slide probed 1 point under Monday’s 2389.75 low.

That’s 11 points intraday high to low. A lot of selling pressure to expend through multiple timing windows, just to travel from one end of the range to the other. Sunday night’s open wasn’t the most inflated balloon, and its reaction down has been relatively shallow. Now a lot of ballast has been dumped.

Breaking lower at Wednesday’s open or overnight would still be credible for extending much more substantially intraday.  Otherwise, could new highs finally extend Wednesday?

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday morning’s drop was basically an extension of the overnight reaction to having blipped-up Sunday night, which Monday’s opening blip-up essentially duplicated. Each was briefer and shallower, despite being in position to attract much wider sponsorship. Sellers weren’t taking the bait.

Sellers also failed to trigger the morning’s bias-down. Not for lack of proximity, since noN-bias triggered. Optimism remains alive, if not altogether alive and kicking. The pattern offers an opportunity to extend down anyway during the afternoon bias environment. It wasn’t done, while price hovered at the afternoon’s high, which is restrained optimism.

Recovering to retest Sunday night’s high remains likely. But a better bottom than Monday’s low will be sought at slightly lower levels, if not already underway Tuesday morning. Extending higher overnight would be credible for persisting through the morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.