Market Wrap

Friday afternoon’s behavior seemed at first to have forgotten about the bearish WedEX influence. The bias environment was entered just above the noon hour’s entry. Bias-up triggered. And higher highs were probed. If not for a headline (Russia probe reaches current White House official), then perhaps the session’s uptrend would have extended.

But the headline’s reaction plunged 10 points. More important, the reaction wasn’t retraced back up, not meaningfully, and not above the noon hour’s entry. So, the bearish WedEX was productive.

Was it WedEX, or was it the headline? The reaction down could have been retraced, at least to close back above the noon hour’s entry. Weak-handed sponsorship would have been absorbed. But this dip was suppressed into the close.

Gapping open Monday above Friday afternoon’s high would serve by proxy to undermine the bearish WedEX, and separately also form a “session-long rally” setup. Gapping up, and trending higher through the open. Otherwise, regardless of “unfinished business above” now outstanding at 2389.50, bearish WedEX is likely to be more influential Monday morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

REMINDER: I’ll email this weekend’s Saturday Review link in the morning, it starts at 9:30am ET.

Thursday afternoon’s probe above its 2366.00 bias-up signal came after failing to trigger it. That’s “no-bias trending” and it’s doomed to failure. Wednesday afternoon’s break under its 2369.75 bias-down signal was also no-bias trending. It was unusually productive, ultimately extending down 25 points to the overnight low. But doomed is doomed. And it was retraced entirely Thursday afternoon.

The no-bias trending retracement was itself done by no-bias trending. Unlike Wednesday, Thursday’s no-bias trending was retraced already into the close, through 2363.50 to 2362.00.coming out of it. But there are other bearish influences. For example, often the no-bias trending’s retracement returns to the 1:20 print, which on Thursday was 2360.00. Also, Thursday’s second consecutive close under 2379.00 has confirmed a trend change, requiring at least an eventual third lower close. And the WedEX signal suggests it will influence Friday afternoon bearishly.

Having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon’s 2375.00 bias environment high would form a “session-long rally” setup. That wouldn’t negate the confirmed trend change signal, but it could invert the bearish WedEX. Otherwise, morning strength would likely resolve into a new downleg.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday afternoon’s slide originated during a no-bias environment. Its 2369.75 bias-down signal wasn’t broken until after 1:30, which is too late to trigger or to invalidate. The “no-bias trending” is doomed to failure, but that didn’t prevent extending down sharply to test 2358.00. Regardless, and from whatever level, the break must be retraced at some point.

Wednesday’s bearish WedEX signal is neither passive nor active. The session’s break was the first to close under a prior range. So, actually, WedEX is not YET passive or active — that will be determined by Thursday’s open either recovering prior highs, or not.

The bigger picture is at risk of unraveling to the downside. But that would require another session like Wednesday, relentless albeit shallower. Wednesday’s close under its prior low, following Tuesday’s fresh high, is the basis for reversing the trend down. While new highs remain possible otherwise, reversing up to that degree is not likely before basing for awhile. And that’s the bullish scenario.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WARNING: The first 5 minutes of today’s recording is almost inaudible. Raising volume on your computer will work. BE SURE TO LOWER IT AGAIN BEFORE THE 5:30 MARK.

Probing fresh highs at Tuesday’s open was rejected, as has been expected. Rejected immediately, which is much quicker than has been expected. So, maybe that’s not quite the new highs we can expect.

The reversal down was relatively deep, probing under overnight lows. It was also rejected, bouncing to close barely negative.

The “ineffectual pessimism” keeps alive potential for probing higher, still. Unfinished business below as left outstanding at 2392.75, and might alter the course higher — or else enable its bearish resolution.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s new high close closed at the 2400.00 prior intraday high, after probing above it intraday. Reversing down immediately would not leave “unfinished  business above” outstanding.  Back under 2397.00 would at least suggest a detour underway.

Reversing down immediately is a vulnerability, but it isn’t likely. At least intraday probing of fresh highs remains likely, presumably including 2405.00, if not also 2415.00.

Only eking out the new high close, and sliding post-close, suggests that pessimism remains alive and well enough. Which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Another new high close isn’t required, but neither is it prohibited.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.