Market Wrap

Tuesday open was greeted by another dip back down to Thursday’s 2408.50 opening gap. It produced another bounce. And it filled the gap back up to Friday’s 2413.75 prior close. Retracing back to within 1 tick of the pre-open low was still short of the bias-down signal. And short of time to trigger it.

That didn’t necessarily marginalize sellers. Other sponsorship could have arrived at different points during the day to launch another downleg. But those initial sellers were marginalized. And so long as they lacked a catalyst to attract more sponsorship, price could only gravitate back toward the range’s other end — up.

So, it’s interesting that the range’s other end wasn’t tested. Positive territory was barely pierced, only touching the afternoon’s bias-up signal, which held throughout the afternoon. The overnight decline was stopped, but not rejected. Reinforcements didn’t arrive, but neither did counter-trend sponsorship, which must now creep in overnight to be credible. It’s also interesting that 2408.50 support has now been chipped away both overnight and intraday. Its retest would likely break, and a break would likely target 2399.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

REMINDER: I’m away from the screens Friday. The chaRTroom WILL be open. Morning Market Tour and bias parameters WILL be available. I’ll try to update before the final hour.

Thursday’s pullback from the 2416.50 morning high was relatively deep, attacking 2410.00. The balance of the session recovered back to the morning’s high, without gaining traction for the effort. That didn’t prevent a last-minute 3-point surge attacking 2418.00, only maintaining it. The surge reacted down 5 points through the close, as quickly as it had developed.

Now 2415.00 has been fulfilled, and held as resistance. The rally gained no traction. And a gap is outstanding back down to Wednesday’s close. Friday morning is more vulnerable to a catalyst than was Thursday afternoon, so trending higher can’t be discounted. Otherwise, backing-and-filling down to 2404.00 or 2401.00 is likely. Actually trending down into the weekend would be difficult without already being obvious during the morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s blip-up was retraced back into Tuesday’s range. But not under it, despite holding the 2399.00 bias-up signal’s test and putting into play an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal. It turned into a “dry cleaners morning” that never broke either way.

Not that this was surprising, since not gapping up or immediately extending higher already had foreclosed upon trending up. And not breaking either way beyond Tuesday afternoon’s range had meant remaining within it.

The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes compounded the constraint. Reaction to the news did trigger a false break down to 2396.00 that rebounded to probe fresh highs at 2402.00 into the bias environment exit. Extending higher to 2404.00 was poorly timed, and gained no traction for its effort.

Other than 2391.00, unfinished business below is 2388.75, which is relatively modest compared to last week’s trend change that requires a close under 2351.50. Already retesting last week’s highs isn’t prohibited from extending to 2415.00. But the context is temporary, so upward moves should be very steep until the high is in.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. A connectivity issue unrelated to Adobe prevented recording the Wrap.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s gap up touched the 2397.00 “higher prior low.” Its test was likely to hold, which it did. Reversing down avoided triggering bias-up, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2388.75 bias-down signal. Which was never touched.

Bias-up wasn’t invalidated, although the morning was spent hovering there. So 2388.75 becomes “unfinished business below.”

Rallying into the noon hour to 2399.50 was never revisited intraday. Its reaction down formed a range that persisted through the close. Sellers failed through two timing windows to reverse down, suggesting the consequence of probing a fresh high. Stopping pessimistically short of the high suggests it will be probed considerably.

Only gapping down or extending down aggressively can avoid at least probing fresh highs, presumably to 2401.00, if not also trending to new highs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Gapping up Monday to 2385.00 didn’t delay extending through Friday’s 2388.00 high. That was before the morning bias environment began. Extending much higher was delayed until the bias environment began lapsing. But it was worth the wait for a relatively quick move to 2393.25.

Then, another delay. But also worth the wait? Much of the noon hour, the entire afternoon bias environment, and also the proxy window, all ranged narrowly. The position-squaring window finally launched a break higher.

But that break was less than 2 points up to 2394.25. And it spent the proxy window only fluctuating around the noon hour’s high. Reacting back down to 2391.00 began too late to be serious, and was retraced back up to 2393.00.

Probing higher overnight has room up to the 2397.00 area before suggesting the rally will resume Tuesday. Otherwise, that Wile E. Coyote moment keeps the door open to greeting the open with a collapse.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.