Market Wrap

Friday morning’s dip was targeting 2254.00, which was attacked to within 1 tick before quickly reversing back up 3 points. The next three hours barely firmed another 3 but the last 30 minutes surged to 2260.25. The close was flat-to-higher, within 3 ticks of the overnight high. None of which has any predictive value.

The low-volume session wasn’t going to do anything predictive, even if it had trended at all. No new unfinished business was created or left outstanding. No hold-long or hold-short, and no trading until Globex re-opens Monday evening.

Have a Merry Christmas, and a Happy Chanukah weekend!

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

[There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Tuesday’s Bias Parameters will be published after the Globex re-opens.]

Thursday afternoon’s no-bias environment had probed 2 points above its 2256.00 bias-up signal. This was no-bias trending that required being retraced, at least to the signal, if not also to its 2255.00 1:20 print. It was reversed down to 2253.00.

2253.00 was also the upper-end of a shallow consolidation at session lows. Its support is at least obligatory, and it did produce a reaction up to 2256.00. But until also recovering the 2258.00 high, the 2253.00 support is only obligatory, and the bounce only temporary. Not immediately recovering 2258.00 Friday would target fresh lows at 2249.50.

Trending is difficult in a low-volume environment, and when participation is evaporating at an exponential pace because of the impending three days of illiquidity. Trending that does get started in this environment is difficult to stop during a timing window, let alone to reverse — especially during the same timing window.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

It wasn’t until coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close, but 2260.50 was finally met. And it was probed down to 2259.75 after the close. The actual break lower began with the final hour breaking under 2264.00, but after the entire session had hovered there until the final hour.

This is not strong-handed sponsorship. Participation is thinning out rapidly as the holiday weekend approaches.

Wednesday’s late break was a vulnerability all day, and it’s now a vulnerability to reverse back up sharply. The drop did neutralize a couple of lower attractions, both Tuesday’s oversold RSIs at 2262.25 and the gap back to Monday’s 2260.00 futures close.

Having trended down into the close, gapping up above the afternoon’s 2265.25 high could form a session-long rally setup. Maintaining it through the open would target new highs above 2273.00. Otherwise, extending down would next find support at 2257.50, or else 2249.50, and maybe lower.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday left “unfinished business below” from oversold RSIs at 2262.25 coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The dip at that time was seeking strong-handed buyers to sponsor resuming the rally — they weren’t attracted by gapping up and extending higher to 2269.50, so a pullback was attracted down to 2262.00.

The dip stopped optimistically short before bouncing to 2267.50 into the close, too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, and too little to prevent a deeper overnight dip. The afternoon bias environment had already peaked there, so only returning to it did not reflect strong-handed buyers.

Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s 2269.50 high could prevent a deeper dip, and already be back on-track to probing the new highs above 2273.00. Otherwise, breaking under Tuesday’s 2262.25 low would have only a brief opportunity to snap back up, or else start seeking buyers below 2260.50.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Were terrorist actions around the globe responsible for derailing Monday afternoon’s attempt at rallying to fresh highs? Possibly in the same degree that Friday afternoon’s presidential conference inhibited the bullish WedEX. Of course, Monday’s distraction was more serious, and the price reaction trended down instead of ranging sideways. But already rallying at Tuesday’s open would put into play new highs. Not already rallying at Tuesday’s open would be more vulnerable to launching a deep corrective dip before seasonal bullishness takes over into the weekend.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.