Market Wrap

Only one piece of “unfinished business below” is outstanding at Wednesday’s 1243.00 low. Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 1255.00 is retested. In fact, that’s where Friday closed. And there has yet to be any consequence to Thursday’s failed rally originating after buyers had failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon.

The bullish WedEX was influential in two ways Friday, if it was influential at all. Neither way was overt. Its first influence is inferred from the morning-long relentless decline ending suddenly almost exactly when the afternoon bias environment began. Secondly, the close ended by bouncing to a fresh afternoon high. This suggests a specific behavior on Monday morning.

Friday afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence might have been more obvious if not for the president’s simultaneous press conference. Previous similar coincidences have also inhibited trending. But that doesn’t change the setup’s likely behavior Monday morning.

We’ll discuss these inputs and likely resolutions for setups Sunday night and Monday morning, at this weekend’s Saturday Review. Look for a reminder and login link overnight.

Meanwhile, the post-market Wrap recording is here.

Thursday afternoon’s 2260.25 was ultimately attacked to within 1 tick. Just coming to within 3 ticks is sufficient to neutralize the objective. Potential to also retrace the 1:20 2263.25 print remains intact, but probably within the context of rallying back to and through Thursday morning’s 2267.75 high. Meanwhile, nothing prevents probing fresh lows overnight, or Friday morning, before the passively bullish WedEX becomes influential.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s deep post-FOMC drop from 2272.50 probed at least twice under Monday’s 2247.00 low. The tests held through the close — or, at least, Wednesday’s close was not below them. That keeps price in the interim high’s orbit, and keeps the door open to retesting it.

It doesn’t have to be retested. There already was no “unfinished business above” coming into Wednesday’s session. Higher attractions were created intraday, but already neutralized. The last one was the 2271.75 bias-up target, which was pierced by 3 ticks at the high.

Two other reasons for retesting Wednesday’s 2272.50 high are (1) it stopped pessimistically short of touching Tuesday’s 2273.00 high, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective, and (2) the high formed a Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern which often reverses more substantially from a false break.

Wednesday’s high is already far above, and that’s just as of Wednesday’s close. Bouncing off of oversold RSIs at 2243.00 recovered to 2260.00 but fell back to 2245.00 before the close. A fresh low overnight would neutralize the attraction to retest 2243.00 — already recovering it into Thursday’s open would be a good start at retesting Wednesday’s high. Otherwise, that multi-session pullback targeting 2215.00 and 2205.00 is underway.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Closing within proximity of Tuesday afternoon’s 2273.00 high suggests that it will be retested,regardless of whether it was accompanied only by 1-minute RSI being overbought. Trending ahead of an FOMC statement would be unusual. But, then, so would seven days of rallying relentlessly ahead of the event.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday afternoon hovered in negative territory, just above the 2246.25 session low at 2248.00, through multiple consecutive timing windows. This is patient pessimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Meanwhile, repeatedly bouncing to the range’s 2251.50 upper-end repeatedly failed to break higher, despite piercing it higher and higher each time. This is ineffectual optimism, which is also potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.

Hold-short was avoided although the only unfinished business above is an eventual new trend high close. But that is not at all precluded from waiting for a multi-session pullback to develop. If that’s what is already underway, then its likely objectives are 2215.00 and probably also 2205.00. Rallying first would target a retest of Sunday night’s 2265.00 high.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.