Market Wrap

A new trend extreme close on Friday, and you know what that means… 1. At least one higher close is expected, eventually if not already on Monday. 2. So, not closing higher Monday would tell us the reaction down is only a temporary correction.

Closing higher Monday would render this contextual information useless. But immediately beginning a pullback — which could last several days — would give us confidence in expecting it to be temporary, and in looking for its complete recovery.

There are other interesting factors to last week’s rally. We’ll discuss them during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send out a reminder overnight. Meanwhile…

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s close above the 2215.00 objective (basis Mar, 2220.00 basis Dec) was not rejected Thursday. The next higher objective in-play still has a little room above at 2147.25. Any higher would likely target 2257.50.

None of which must be maintained through the close. There is otherwise no other “unfinished business above.” If the rally is going to entrench itself, then closing at a new trend extreme on Fridays is its next opportunity.

Meanwhile, features to this rally’s origin still make it vulnerable to reversing down sharply, especially when the end comes. The ultimate reversal’s origin matters, too, and gapping down sharply would not qualify for launching more than a temporary pullback.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

No traction from the bias environment lapsing above the noon hour high, since the 3:10-3:20 proxy window didn’t trend to fresh highs. Not for lack of proximity, or for lack of trying. Fresh highs were probed up to 2236.50 during the window, but not maintained upon its exit.

None of which prevents extending higher anyway, which the balance of the session did up to 2241.25. Reacting down to 2136.00 was recovered almost entirely into the cash session close, before reacting down as much again into the futures close.

Just as closing above 2192.00 had put into play 2220.00, now closing even higher is targeting 2244.75 or 2252.50. Unless Thursday were to close under 2220.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The anchor from last Wednesday’s open is a structural point, singularly defined as 2110.25. It had all but required being tested, the minimum objective of last week’s pullback. Last week’s pullback was likely to be only temporary because of the “unfinished business above.”

That unfinished business didn’t take long for its retest after fulfilling the pullback’s next lower objective at 2181.00. The final hour’s entry touched it, and then fresh highs probed it up to 2212.00.

Now that the attraction is tested, there is no requirement to extend higher in the near- term. Closing above 2192.00 two weeks ago did put into play the next higher objective at 2222.00. That’s still likely, but it’s not required on this leg.

Traction gained during the afternoon suggests the morning will trend up, whether from opening flat or from gapping. Gapping down would still be likely to trend up. That qualifies less as a hold-long since gapping down remains possible.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

45 minutes of testing the 2203.50 buy signal was mostly contained within a narrow 5-tick range. That is the opposite of an inflection point. That followed gaining 4 points in the prior hour from testing the window’s 2199.75 support. The lack of momentum undermines whatever is compelling about the area’s hold-long setup.

But the likely resolution remains higher, probing new highs above the anchor at last week’s high. Possibly not for any extended length of time, or at least being vulnerable to reversing down sharply again. Not extending higher Tuesday would make Sunday night’s lows around 2181.00 a likely attraction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.