Market Wrap

Meeting the 2187.50 target put an end to the day’s decline. The afternoon bias environment only ranged sideways back up to 2192.00. A probe of fresh lows down to 2186.00 was isolated to the final hour. That’s similar to Wednesday’s proxy window dip, and to Thursday morning’s bias environment probe. None of which reverses momentum up, but does suggest the decline’s sponsorship is weak-handed and temporary.

Extending down any deeper would next target “lower prior highs” at 2181.00. There is no pre-qualified setup for reversing momentum up Friday, but any recovery should begin by gapping up. And not by a little.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

2199.75 was put into play Wednesday morning. The afternoon bias environment fulfilled it. RSIs diverged positively on its retest. Its probe under the prior low was isolated to the proxy window, which was exited above the 2202.00 prior high. that’s all bullish enough to establish a low, which would be relevant if broken.

It was broken. But it wasn’t broken until coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. And that’s not often a relevant break. So, there is potential for rejecting the late dip, but only by gapping up above the afternoon’s 2208.00 high (forming a “session-long rally”). Otherwise, not rejecting Wednesday’s late break would likely trend down Thursday morning.

It’s the third consecutive session ending on the brink of rolling over. The anchor that formed during Wednesday’s open suggests any reaction down will be recovered. But not yet recovering at Thursday’s open would next target 2187.50 below.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s bounce came to within 1 point of “unfinished business above” at 2210.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. That didn’t matter, as it was left outstanding. And it didn’t prevent against reversing down sharply.

Dropping back down to 2201.25 reached the morning’s “lower prior highs” during the position-squaring window. That stopped optimistically short of being unchanged just several ticks lower.

Firming into the close held 2203.75, which was the morning’s bias-up signal. This essentially rejects the interim probe above it. That’s not just 6 points of probing, but several hours, all failing to gain traction for the effort.

Once again, only gapping up above the prior afternoon’s high — which, in this case, is 2208.50 — would prevent resuming the decline Wednesday with a vengeance. Gapping up above 2208.50 and also maintaining the gap up, likely would at least attack 2220.00 intraday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday morning’s high touched the 2209.50 target of Friday’s bias signal. Monday afternoon’s high attacked it. But positive territory was never recovered. And the afternoon’s no-bias environment lapsed without trying another recovery, so a decline filled the void. And it extended until probing he 2199.50 overnight low by 5 ticks as the position-squaring window lapsed. Monday’s last several minutes bounced to 2201.00.

More “unfinished business above” was created, and left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close, and Monday morning’s 2211.50 bias-up signal, are both likely to be tested before a durable downleg can begin. This is in addition to the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing last week above 2192.00.

But, first, 2192.00 is unlikely to hold again if retested. Just attacking it would all but ensure probing it down to 2187.50. Avoiding its test would all but require gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2207.00 high — which would also form a “session-long rally setup”.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday. Have a great weekend, chaRTroom will re-open with Globex on Sunday night.

Friday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility were glued to 2205.50. This suggested almost instantly that the holiday-shortened session would likely not be volatile. That made trending very far very difficult.

But the 2204.25 bias-up signal did trigger, putting into play its 2209.50 bias-up target. Almost three hours of a 6-tick range around 2207.50 finally broke higher within minutes of the close. The 2209.50 target was met, on the way to test 2211.00 after the close.

Now the 2220.00 objective created above 2192.00 is the only “unfinished business above.” Gapping down Monday would make Friday’s close become unfinished business, too. And it could remain unfinished throughout a detour dip, which is likely as the target is approached.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.