Market Wrap

HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY… The chaRTroom will be open with Globex through 1:00pm ET, which re-opens Thursday at 6:00pm.

Attacking the afternoon’s 2101.25 bias-up signal to within 1 tick had a chilling effect. Even the FOMC Minutes didn’t shake price action loose from a 2-3 point range since the noon hour’s exit.

Hovering at session highs could have just as easily drifted to the session’s lower-end. Sponsorship for a breakout is difficult to attract when everyone’s running out the door. But halfway through the position-squaring window, price did start firming. It barely pierced 2202.25 and closed positive 1 point vs. Tuesday’s cash session close.

An offsetting test of Wednesday morning’s 2204.25 bias-up signal had been put into play by holding a test of the bias-down signal. An intraday retest of Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is still required, regardless of having pierced it by 2 ticks Tuesday’s night. The other “unfinished business above” is the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing above 2192.00.

By the way, 2192.00 has been tested thoroughly as support. If tested again — whether before or after testing 2220.00 above — it’s likely to be probed by a downleg instead of holding again.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The afternoon’s recovery extended to fresh post-open highs that touched this morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target. Its upside attraction is now neutralized, as is the 2200.00 opening gap up above all prior highs. Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is outstanding, regardless of having been attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday.

None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness arrives. Especially not when Wednesday’s econ calendar is extremely busy, with high-profile and reliably influential reports, including the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The bearish WedEX didn’t invert, so the distributive influence that had triggered it last week was already absorbed. And not arbitrarily, Closing above the 2192.00 room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00 has signaled the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50, and upside momentum won’t be threatened Tuesday without immediately breaking back under Friday’s 2187.50 prior high.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

There’s no “unfinished business above.” Thursday tested and held the 2185.00-2186.00 target that was likely to be visited while retesting 2180.00. There’s potential to 2192.00 just as noise, but it’s not required, and neither is any particular reaction.

Friday afternoon is likely to behave bearishly due to the WedEX signal. Closing Thursday under 2180.00 would have been optimal for the bearish setup — not preventing an intraday probe higher Friday, just dooming it to failure. Probing higher Friday morning would still be vulnerable to an afternoon reversal.

As for topping, that’s unlikely. Near-term drop, sure — if a drop is going to happen anytime soon, then it must begin Friday or Monday. Otherwise, the bullish seasonal influence of a holiday (next week’s Thanksgiving) will prevent downdrafts from gaining traction. But a durable top rarely happens at expiration.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Buyers gained traction Wednesday afternoon, but in the least impressive way. The bias environment lapsed at the noon hour’s upper-end, but not necessarily above it. The final hour’s entry was above the bias environment’s high, and the proxy window trended higher. But the morning’s high was never probed. Trending up overnight isn’t required for resuming the rally tomorrow morning, but it would help.

Until resolving up, there’s vulnerability to repeating Wednesday’s gap down on Thursday. That wouldn’t be bullish, at least not near-term. By the same token, not gapping down or trending down at Thursday’s open should be bullish for returning to Tuesday’s highs. And potentially higher, even if only briefly.

Meanwhile, WedEX triggered an active bearish signal. Thursday’s open can have a proxy effect, either to become an active bullish signal, or else to reinforce the bearish signal.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.