Market Wrap

The ongoing delay in repeating last Wednesday night’s test of 2180.00 was resolved finally during Tuesday afternoon’s last 60-90 minutes. The no-bias environment had barely lapsed (and really hadn’t yet) before extending an earlier buy signal at 2167.00 up to 2178.00. Post-close action jumped to within 1 tick of 2180.00.

But buyers gained traction for their efforts, so trending up further Wednesday morning is likely. Trending up can begin from gapping down, but should nevertheless last the morning and probe fresh highs. Fresh highs should include 2185.00-2186.00, with room for noise up to 2192.00.

Inverting the signal requires forming a “session-long decline” setup by gapping down under 2167.00. And maintaining it. Not impossible, not even very unlikely — only a little of both.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Did Obama’s press conference prevent a late rally? Firming into the final hour probed fresh afternoon highs up to 2164.00. A buy signal had triggered, but RSIs were unable to reach overbought. Extending higher wasn’t required, but hovering above it for a half-hour didn’t reject the signal.

Only when Obama began speaking did the hovering stop. Price slid sharply to 2157.75. And then it bounced to 4 points, ranging sideways into the close. But now the speaking has stopped. Retracing the late break from 2164.00 — which is not assured — would target a retest of the morning’s high up to 2169.00. And that would again position the market for retesting the 2180.00 area, and possibly higher.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s session didn’t accomplish much. It was more lightly-attended being the Veteran’s Day holiday, and a Friday. Limited sponsorship led to an Inside Day, despite beginning with a gap down. It’s still only “ineffectual pessimism,” which tends to be bullish, but has yet to be exploited.

Nothing was changed by Friday’s price action. Wednesday night’s test of the 2180.00 objective may stand, but it’s still likely to be tested intraday. And it’s still likely to hold that test, with or without probing it up to 2185.00-2186.00.

We’ll discuss that setup and others, and closely examine how Tuesday night’s plunge affects the bigger picture, during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll email a reminder and link overnight.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 was extended to attack 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. But the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around the close-quarters Double Top that had defined Wednesday’s late-afternoon high. Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Closing AT the prior high isn’t really any stronger. So, extending the rally on this leg probably can’t afford much of a delay, or else a much deeper pullback will become likely.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Today’s post-market Wrap recording identifies most of the new influences that arose during election night and in its aftermath.

Attractions below:
The retest of last Friday’s 2080.00-2094.00 range that was required by the Comey rally’s gap up. Its retest is required intraday, so the overnight drop did not fulfill it. The “new Globex trend extreme” that developed under prior lows, which requires being retested eventually intraday. The low’s limit-down, which also is historically retested.

Buying pressure:
The low’s 61.8% retracement of the Brexit reaction’s plunge, which serves by proxy as its retest. Isolating the probe under Tuesday’s lows to the overnight so that sellers might be marginalized for the day. The successful setup often extends for multiple sessions, retracing multiple downlegs.

Upside attractions:
Wednesday morning’s break above downtrending resistance that had been guiding the two-week slide. Its ~2167.00 “connector” was tested at the intraday high, and any higher would target fresh highs probing its 2184.25 anchor. Meanwhile, intraday patterns already in-play are next targeting the 2180.00 area.

Near-term momentum:
Buyers gained traction by entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high and then trending up through the 3:10-3:2- timing window. This makes Thursday morning likely to trend higher, regardless of gapping up. Wednesday’s mid-day Ascending Triangle already broke higher and a dip corrected the break higher. So, whatever the opening print, there should be no delay in rallying.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.