Market Wrap

Rallying to fresh highs Tuesday morning should not be durable, since the prior day’s buyers gained no traction, which wasn’t offset by a gap up. That’s excessive optimism. The intraday probe was retraced to only attack Monday’s prior high, which is also excessive optimism. All of which followed the morning’s bias-down being rejected, fairly, but still a product of optimism.

The market’s optimism is a belief that its candidate will win. A decisive victory tonight would probably be cause for at least some more optimistic behavior, no matter how much optimism that Tuesday’s rally already discounted. But an indecisive result can only encourage selling. And in today’s Market Wrap, I describe why Tuesday’s session makes a poor base to try launching any probe higher.

I’ll be checking the chaRTroom regularly during election results, and annotating the chart where possible.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The gargantuan character of Monday’s rally was attributed as much to its catalyst as to its timing, The FBI weighed in favorably on Clinton, after a relentless two-week decline from 2150.00 had fulfilled its 2082.00 target. That perfect storm may be responsible for fulfilling a session-long rally, despite the setup’s intervening weekend which often renders the setup unreliable.

But intraday timing windows complied with the session-long rally template by there being only one exception to each probing its prior timing window’s high. Essentially, that was the final 60-90 minutes which pulled back.

Surging to fresh session highs into the close at 2130.00 was isolated to after the position-squaring window had begun lapsing. Dismissing that would allow the session to comply fully with the session-long rally template. Continuing to comply would suggest Tuesday morning will probe higher, possibly trending, next attracted to 2134.00 and 2138.00.

A pullback could test Monday’s mid-day “lower prior highs” down to 2123.50 without even hinting of reversing the trend. Dipping deeper to 2118.25 would start to threaten, but still have room down to 2113.50.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

There being no Saturday Review this weekend, Friday’s Market Wrap was slightly extended to include the Bigger Picture review, along with its usual other markets coverage.

View the post-market Wrap recording here.

Sunday at 6:00pm ET, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report didn’t paralyze price action. At least, not everyone’s — only buyers. Thursday morning failed to trigger bias-up and the afternoon triggered bias-down. Interestingly, the 2082.00 bias-down target was met, and the room for noise under it down to 2077.50 was attacked to within almost 2 points. Its reaction up to only 2084.50 suggests the target remains in-play. And if tested in reaction to payrolls, the market will have a big decision to make on whether to enter the weekend. Either ride the roller coaster back up in a short-squeeze, or hang on for dear life.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The ongoing series of lower intraday lows persisted Wednesday, with yet another lower close, as well. Keeping the decline intact had been maintained by oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2091.00 low. Oversold RSIs accompanied  Wednesday’s 2087.75 low — which formed when retesting Tuesday’s low and fulfilling Wednesday’s 2088.00 bias-down target. It’s a circle of life that keeps the decline intact.

And the decline is targeting 2082.00 with room down to 2077.50. Testing the lower target(s) Thursday before Friday’s payrolls would allow a reaction up to greet the report in a position of strength. Not yet resolving the lower attraction could force a resolution down. The most bullish scenario might be to gap up Thursday and ignore the lower attractions altogether.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.