Market Wrap

So, the big question on everyone’s mind after Tuesday’s slide to 2136.00 is whether the rally is salvageable. Even if only to retest last week’s ~2169.00 high, which was within proximity of unfinished business above at 2175.50.

Since the potential for a detour was 2138.00-2139.00, which was recovered through Tuesday’s close, the answer is yes. Yes, the rally can be salvaged. But since the decline gained traction for its effort, all but requiring trending down deeper Wednesday morning… well, you can see the difficulty.

There’s a reason I call it “Wreversal Wednesday,” for the session’s propensity to reverse a seemingly morning trend through the afternoon. If there’s an opportunity to salvage the rally from probing lower, then Wednesday’s the day to do it. But not back in rally mode at Wednesday’s close would suggest a much more bearish picture in-play.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s backing-and filling started abruptly by gapping down. But its test of relevant support back to Thursday’s close held. And despite two more timing windows having elapsed since then, price only firmed from the test instead of bouncing back up. That’s “ineffectual pessimism.”

The pessimism won’t be so ineffectual. Monday’s lows did chip away at support, so breaking under them is likelier if retested. And having bounced into Monday’s close, gapping down Tuesday under Monday afternoon’s lows could form a session-decline.

Otherwise, Tuesday’s session is vulnerable to a delayed resumption of Monday afternoon’s firming, replete with pent-up buying pressure pushing price higher. And with participation somewhat normalized, trending can at least be attempted.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s late dive originated too late to be predictive. It was also too shallow within 3 minutes of the cash session close to be predictive. It did extend to levels that would have been relevant if printed earlier in the session. Sunday night or Monday might still do the same and be entirely valid. But the recovery otherwise remains capable of fulfilling that last bit of unfinished business above before completing its topping pattern. We’ll discuss that and more at the Saturday Review.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be sent overnight.

A short-squeeze setup wasn’t exploited. It had formed by probing a fresh session extreme during the bias environment and then exiting that environment beyond the prior extreme. But the bounce from 2137.25 up to 2153.75 was retraced back down by 61.8% to 2143.00. And the last hour was spent ranging choppily sideways.

Remember that Monday’s drop was a test of “lower prior highs” down to 2143.50. So, holding it through Thursday’s close does keep alive potential for Thursday’s drop to have been only temporary. But closing above 2149.00 instead of at or below it would have helped to confirm.

Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low require an eventual retest. Overnight would suffice, and then greeting Friday’s open in positive territory could fulfill the short-squeeze setup, after all. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And it’s being greeted with a big drop back to relevant support that has already been productive once. So, whichever direction, the session is likely to trend aggressively for awhile.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Well, that worked out well. The morning’s anchor rescued the market from its slide to the bias-down signal. And then some. The 21-point intraday rally still didn’t gain traction beyond fulfilling its sponsorship. So, gapping up again is necessary for reliably extending the rally without further delay. Backing-and-filling for the morning could still resolve in a rally,

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.