Market Wrap
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s rally created a new upside attraction at 2155.00. Being only 1 point above the intraday high might not seem very bullish. But the pessimism that inhibited fulfilling it can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. “Ineffectual pessimism,” since neither of two timing windows that attacked it were repulsed back down.
Still, the one-day recovery is too tenuous to be very reliable for recovering back to last week’s highs. But it is credible, despite not being optimal. Gapping up Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday, and narrowing the distance back to “unfinished business above” at 2175.50.
Trending down has room to 2143.50 before becoming vulnerable to resuming the decline. And trending down at this stage would likely be done very aggressively.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
We held the market Wrap early Monday. The afternoon bias environment’s lows ultimately held instead of breaking lower. Which is an interesting wrench in he works since the alternative to a short-squeeze was to extend the decline. The short-squeeze’s window hasn’t so much lapsed, as it must now develop overnight to prevent extending the decline Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
This weekend’s Saturday Review has been cancelled, so Friday’s post-market Wrap was extended to discuss the bigger picture and stock requests. Its recording is not the usual Saturday format, but the usual weekday format..
The week ended with one piece of “unfinished business above” at 2175.50. That’s 3 points above Thursday’s high. Being in the context of unfinished business above, Friday’s slide is assumed to be a temporary detour. But that’s the assumption anyway, since shallow trending or ranging on Fridays can be the week’s least predictive price action.
That’s not to say nothing relevant was accomplished Friday. Its low filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s close, and held it. Already trending up Sunday night to some degree, and gapping up Monday, is somewhat likelier at this stage — assuming no dramatic weekend developments that would require being absorbed.
Otherwise, any lower intraday Friday would have targeted at least 2149.00. That could still hold if tested Sunday night, but the delay makes any selling likelier to test “lower prior highs” down to 2143.50. And there’s room below it to 2138.00 before suggesting that 2175.50 won’t be tested soon.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDXJ, ERII, POT, JJG, AERO, KSHB, CMG
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s gap up to 2167.50 extended only high enough to test and to hold “higher prior lows” at 2172.50. Its eventual reaction down attacked 2164.00. The cash session close was within 5 ticks of the opening print, which the futures close probed. The session went nowhere, despite the momentum that had greeted its open, and the volatility it produced.
Along the way, the session did put into play a bias-up target at 2175.50. It became “unfinished business above,” and not for lack of trying to reject it. It can be met overnight and its attraction neutralized in time for Friday’s open to trigger a durable decline. Otherwise, triggering a decline at Friday’s open would remain likely to recover.
Gapping up Friday would be the most credible setup to resume the rally without further delay. It could be very productive, since being a Friday, the morning’s bias would tend to extend through the noon hour. But not trending up to fresh highs through Friday’s open would be vulnerable to reversing back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
2152.25 is the highest calculable retracement of last Monday’s consolidation. Room for noise above it at 2153.25 was being overlapped as the positions-squaring window was entered. Not exceeded, but overlapped. Probing any higher, however much higher, would not have any predictive value.
In fact, fresh highs went on to probe significantly higher to 2157.50.While a reaction down would be required to retest that high, a reaction down isn’t any less likely. A reaction down may even be likelier. That’s despite Wednesday afternoon’s rally having gained traction by entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high, and then trending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Already extending higher has rewarded those buyers.
Overbought RSIs at Wednesday’s high will require an eventual retest in case of reversing down overnight without yet probing higher. That would be the more bullish scenario, at least near-term to enable a morning rally. But extending the rally is not at all assured, as retesting last Monday’s highs has neutralized a great deal of sponsorship.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.