Market Wrap

Tuesday afternoon’s weak-handed bounce from 2131.00 up to 2138.75 had stretched the rubber band without gaining traction for the effort. Attracting strong-handed buyers above a relevant price level was unlikely, since relevant price levels weren’t being probed during relevant timing windows. The consequence wasn’t just to stop rallying, or even just to reverse down, but to collapse to fresh session lows.

Price did collapse, albeit not immediately under the 2135.75 inflection point. And not to fresh session lows, only back to the afternoon’s 2131.00 low. Actually, fresh lows were probed immediately following the close, to within 3 ticks of unfinished business below at 2128.25. Which neutralizes it, and no longer requires its test.

So, keep that in mind while reviewing the Wrap recording. I’ll be monitoring the overnight reaction to any BOJ statement. And we’ll be looking forward to Wednesday afternoon — not only a Fed statement, but also a quarterly Q&A by Yellen which is reliably volatile.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

It’s difficult to trend in either direction beyond last week’s range, when BOJ and Fed statements are looming. That doesn’t preclude there being trending attempts. And Monday morning’s attempt to extend its 2139.00 gap up had potential to test last Monday’s upper-end around 2150.50. But it peaked short of 2147.00 before falling back into Friday’s range at 2128.00.

Another probe above 2134.00 was prevented — probing above it by 13 points and back under it by 6 points back under it, closing within 1-2 points of it, and essentially unchanged on the day. So long as Tuesday’s open isn’t already breaking down sharply, a more substantial correction of Monday’s noon hour plunge up to 2141.50 is likely, as is a retest of the morning’s overbought RSIs at 2146.75.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday afternoon’s dip to its 2124.25 bias-down signal was probed down to 2123.00. RSIs were borderline oversold,. That held a test of the morning’s low, as much as it chipped away at its support. Its reaction up momentarily probed fresh session highs and touched 2134.00. Which held as resistance, after having gapped down under it. So, the distributive signal remains intact, distributive action persists, resistance held when it had an opportunity to recover, and any unfinished business is below.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

I’ll send a link overnight to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.

Thursday’s session was greeted by three main influences. They are the 2134.00 dividing line that indicates whether sellers are retaking control, the 2095.00 retest of Sunday night’s low that was attempted Wednesday night, and the not-bullish WedEX that Thursday’s open failed to further define.

Each is described in detail during the post-market Wrap. Also discussed are two new elements. The first is overbought RSIs left outstanding at Thursday’s 2144.50 high. Retesting it could extend to “higher prior lows” from Monday afternoon at  2049.00, which itself could be probed up to 2050.50. Second is that Thursday’s rally gained no traction. Gapping up could compensate for that, which the unfinished business above at Thursday’s overbought RSIs could incite.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s last half-hour bounced from 2112.00. Already having entrenched the downtrend by at least trending down throughout the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, the late bounce wasn’t going to produce anything bullish. It did manage to test what would have been a reliable buy signal above 2119.00, holding it throughout the position-squaring window. The futures close dipped back down to 2112.25.

Meanwhile, WedEX stopped short of triggering an optimal signal. The afternoon’s 2112.25 low only pierced yesterday’s prior low, and only by 1 tick. That’s hardly a test, so its reaction up is hardly a rejection. The pattern is more about chipping away at support than about holding it. And that’s less than optimal, as were the final hour’s entry and 3:10-3:20 window.

Gapping down Thursday — especially under Monday’s 2110.50 post-open low — would serve by proxy to trigger a delayed Active Bearish WedEX. Otherwise, gapping up above 2134.00 is the minimum to even suggest a delayed Bullish WedEX.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.