Market Wrap

2089.75 is the lower-end of the pre-Brexit session two weeks ago. Closing above it last Friday had created the requirement to probe that session’s upper-end, targeting 2125.25.

An interim corrective dip was recovered to close back above 2089.75. And then Friday’s rally touched 2125.25. Barely. The final hour only trended down, but it was too late for a durable downleg to begin.

There’s no higher calculable objective. But a new trend high close on Fridays all but requires an eventual higher close. Nothing can prevent another interim pullback, but it would likely be only a temporary correction.

We’ll look at this in more detail during Saturday Review, starting at 9:30am ET.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

A funny thing happened on the way to recovery highs…

Gapping up just enough to qualify for Thursday’s bullish scenario, surging substantially and then triggering bias-up, just couldn’t prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour.

The slide began too late and was too slow to prevent forming “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target. The session’s 2082.00 pullback limit didn’t require being tested, but it defined the session low anyway.

The final hour’s bounce attacking 2092.00 held at or under the morning’s bias environment lows. The near-term trend hasn’t reversed back up. Gapping above the prior session’s high would again be bullish, albeit much more difficult Friday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Trending down overnight, reversing a recovery back down to fresh lows, and probing under overnight lows, all expended selling pressure. But along the way to testing 2066.00, sellers blinked — they failed to exploit the opportunity to renew the bias-down signal.

The balance of the session reversed back up to attack 2094.00 before the cash session close. It was probed minutes later. This neutralized last Friday’s 2093.00 higher prior lows.

Still, buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. Extending the rally without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. Not gapping up would be vulnerable to another pullback, albeit briefer and shallower down to 2082.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Last week’s tremendous recovery of the Brexit reaction had been vulnerable to a pullback at any step of the way. By Friday, its potential was to 2076.00 or 2071.00. On Monday, it reached 2072.50.

Despite recovering intraday to 2083.50, it’s probably not a durable bottom. Recovering a little less a little earlier would have been more credible as strong-handed. So, retesting Tuesday’s lows before resuming the rally would help to launch the next upleg.

The next upleg remains likely to develop. The pullback into Tuesday’s lows originated from having closed Friday above 2089.75. The reward of probing the pre-Brexit high back to 2125.25 remains outstanding, and fulfilling it from this unfinished bottom would be doomed to failure.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!

We started the Market Wrap before Friday’s close, and expanded it to cover the bigger picture since there is no Saturday Review this weekend.

Thursday’s last hour had hovered pessimistically short of 2089.75 “higher prior lows” from the pre-Brexit Thursday highs. Friday did the opposite by immediately surging higher to attack 2101.00. Timing windows recovered 2089.75 for long enough to further reward the rally with new highs. That means probing above the prior Thursday’s post-close 2119.50 high, presumably to 2125.25. A corrective dip isn’t required, but would have potential to 2076.00 or to 2071.00 without yet suggesting that Monday’s 1981.50 lows might be retested first.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here (which includes the bigger picture review).

Globex will re-open normally Sunday evening at 6:00 ET and trade through 1:00 PM on the 4th, then re-open at 6:00 ET Monday evening.