Market Wrap
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Recall from last weekend’s Saturday Review that there is no bearish reason to revisit last Thursday’s 2089.75 lower-end. That’s not the actual session low, but it is the relevant support being tested at the time.
Now this Thursday’s bias environment exit has stopped pessimistically short of touching 2089.75. Only by 1 point, 2-3 times. A last-minute 3-point spike up did probe it, but nothing that originates within 3 minutes of the cash session close is relevant.
Actually touching 2089.75 would all but ensure probing above last Thursday’s highs, probably up to 2125.25. Possible paths and possible consequences were discussed during an extended post-market Wrap.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning’s post-open bounce high at 2064.75. Intraday patterns had independently targeted just 1 tick higher. The futures close probed both up to 2067.25. That’s natural resistance.
That’s 85 points off of Monday morning (and afternoon) 1981.50 lows. It’s also a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s 2019.50 post-close high. That’s natural resistance.
The rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip. Just add that vulnerability to the list of potentially bearish catalysts ignored this since Monday’s close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s intraday rally wasn’t single-minded, but it extended sharply higher anyway. Another similarity is that the overnight rally greeted Tuesday’s open back up at Monday’s open, which is natural resistance. Similarly, Tuesday’s intraday rally greeted the overnight session by filling the gap back up to Friday’s cash session close.
Slight differences, but still similar influences that enable a path to reversing down. More so now, Tuesday’s rally gained no traction for its effort, and “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the gap back to Monday’s close.
One of those near-term potential bearish influences is distribution ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.That would seem to limit Wednesday’s upside, if not serve as a catalyst to trending back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s 1981.50 low was finally touched after the 3:10-3:20 window had lapsed. No fresh low during either the noon hour or afternoon, but the morning low’s obligatory support produced a reaction up to 1994.50.
Suspicious. That was still under the afternoon’s high, which had held the bias-up signal. In fact, a last-half hour 13-point surge up to 1994.50 was reversed 10 points down to 1983.50 through the futures close.
Sellers gained no traction for their efforts Monday. So, extending down without delay would require gapping down Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s gained traction in a hard fought battle that barely probed 2035.00 and 2036.00 relevant prior lows at the bias environment exit and the final hour’s entry. The 3:10-3:20 timing window was much more decisive, dropping more than 10 points to fresh session post-open lows at 2022.25.
That retraced 61.8% of the 66-point rally from overnight lows. And then some, suggesting that lower price would be met — at least, undermining the sponsorship of any reaction up.
Undermining the reaction’s sponsorship didn’t prevent attacking 2040.00, 17 points off the low. That was similar in principle to the earlier blip-up to 2038.00. The afternoon’s bias-down detour was similar, too. Hope springs eternal. The reaction’s resolution was similar, too. Already retracing 61.8% into the cash session close, fresh lows were probed down to 2016.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us in the chaRTroom here for this weekend’s Saturday Review at 9:30am ET.