Market Wrap

The optimism expressed by Thursday afternoon’s rally to 2036.25 was not a last gasp before sinking to fresh lows into the close. Not that 2036.25 was exceeded, not when it mattered — it equates to the cash session close.

So, the afternoon’s rally to 2036.25 may have been a last gasp before sinking to fresh lows. Just not into Thursday’s close. Probing a fresh low to the 2018.00 area remains likely. The bullish WedEX suggests it would be recovered into or out of the noon hour… assuming that the indicator doesn’t invert to bearish and target a probe under 2000.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2030.75 low require being retested. More so, that stopped optimistically 1 tick short of touching the two-week old Employment Situation report’s reaction. The final hour’s bounce was likely premature, and the fast-approaching close inhibited new sellers.

Otherwise, Thursday’s open will gap up sharply. That’s the least likely scenario, and it would suggest a major paradigm shift has somehow developed overnight. That wouldn’t effect WedEX’s passively bullish signal. But it triggered by a shallow margin, so Thursday’s open could turn it into a late actively bearish signal by proxy.

Meanwhile, keep in mind what I began describing last week as an opportunistic environment. The growing pool of evidence now includes this morning’s surge, being the second morning surge in three days. All that is missing now is a substantial intraday reversal… Oh, wait. Done.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

If there’s anything bullish about Tuesday’s decline, it’s the afternoon air pocket from 2055.00 to 2038.00. Suddenly starting a one-hour slide of 17 points doesn’t happen without expending a lot of selling pressure. Air pockets form from a sudden influx of sponsorship, not from the absence of counter-trend opposition.

That’s not the bullish part.

Finally stalling at 2 ticks under Friday afternoon’s 2038.50 low, a bounce resolved down to a fresh low at 2036.75. RSIs diverged positively, enabling a bounce up to 2045.00.

That’s not the bullish part, either.

Actually, there is nothing bullish about Tuesday afternoon’s air pocket slide. Not, yet. But having expended so much selling pressure without gaining traction for the effort, the leg is vulnerable to rejection. Gapping up Wednesday to and/or through its 2055.00 origin would be bullish, targeting fresh highs for the week above 2070.00-2071.00.

Back above 2048.00 and 2050.50 overnight would help to position the open for gapping up sufficiently. Otherwise, fresh lows would target 2033.00 and 2027.00 before the next chance to reject the decline.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Two elements point higher. First, Monday’s intraday targets and their room for noise attracted price and then resisted it. Meeting them precisely helps to confirm the pattern I’m tracking, which included knowing the day would trend up if the open wasn’t plunging. And it’s a bullish pattern

Second, Monday’s rally gained traction for its effort. The bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s high and the final hour entry was higher. Tuesday morning should trend higher.

Expending so much buying pressure throughout most of Monday, there’s some cautiousness. Did the recovery attempt extend itself too far too quickly? The past two weeks began with session-long rallies, too, and both failed. Still, not skepticism, just caution.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday afternoon’s slide to 2038.50 fulfilled the likelier bearish scenario by only probing into the prior Friday’s range. A plunge to new lows was the less likely bearish scenario. The opportunity for a short-squeeze signal had long since passed, so the balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher back up to 2044.50. But the dip was recovered back above last Friday’s highs. Closing inside its range without having touched its low requires an almost immediate reaction — regardless of which direction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.