Market Wrap

Thursday’s final hour didn’t resume the session-long decline. But neither did it extend the afternoon bias environment’s rally. And it missed an opportunity for the afternoon’s rally to gain traction. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high, but the final hour wasn’t entered above the bias environment’s  2064.00 high — and that’s despite having probed higher to 2066.50 during the interim half-hour.

The final hour fell back down to 2057.50, essentially unchanged vs. Wednesday’s close. Having failed to gain traction, resuming the rally without delay Friday requires gapping up above Wednesday afternoon’s 2066.50 high. Its simultaneously overbought RSIs require a retest, but so does oversold RSIs at the 2048.50 low.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The morning bias environment’s probes beyond either end of the opening range were unusual volatility. Wednesday’s session had many influences left outstanding, which will be important to know about going into Thursday’s session. Among those that I described during the post-market Tour are:

• Morning’s fresh low was neither rejected nor extended.
• Symmetrical Triangle may have launched a false break.
• Afternoon drop was “no-bias trending” that requires recover.
• Inside day suggests sponsorship was weak-handed sellers.
• Yet the decline gained traction by its afternoon timing windows.

Almost any further downside would target a retest of Friday’s lows. Resuming the rally would likely start by gapping up sharply. Levels and objectives are discussed on the recording, and we’ll delve deeper into the likelier setups before Thursday’s open.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

This will sound incorrect: Tuesday probably was not a “session-long rally” setup, because each timing window probed a fresh high. A session-long rally setup usually has one timing window not probe higher. Each of Tuesday’s timing windows probed a fresh high.

So, what?

Well, had Tuesday been a session-long rally, then we could rely on the rally extending higher Wednesday morning. That’s not assured. It’s likely anyway — the rally gained traction for its effort (by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then trending to fresh highs through 3:10-3:20) so Wednesday morning is likely to trend up. But that could begin from a gap down.

And a gap down can’t be discounted, for at least three reasons. The 2080.50 objective was met to within 3 ticks, while RSIs diverged negatively. Confirming Tuesday’s rally by extending higher Wednesday would put into play new highs above 2105.00. Early weakness has room down to 2072.00 without yet reversing the trend back down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Obligatory resistance at Monday morning’s 2058.50 high wasn’t recovered before the close. Pressuring price down through the 3:10-3:20 timing window prevented confirming that the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high had gained traction. Trending up Tuesday morning is unlikely without gapping up.

The pressure persisted into the cash session close and down to unchanged at 2052.25. Holding 2056.00 as support, or recovering it, would have made an overnight rally a little likelier. It’s still possible, but it’s still not required.

Without signaling a recovery is underway, the door remains open to resuming the ongoing decline. More than retesting Friday’s 2030.50 pre-open low down to 2027.00, resuming the ongoing decline would mean sharply lower lows. And it would probably begin aggressively by gapping down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

This is interesting, for how uninteresting it is.

It’s difficult to reverse intraday trending that exits a Friday’s bias environment beyond the session’s other timing window extremes. That doesn’t require extending the trend, although that’s often the result. And it doesn’t prohibit reversing anyway, although that’s rare — and short-lived when it happens.

Friday’s bias environment began lapsing at its 2050.50 bias-up target. It had been probed already up to 2052.25 a couple of times. Narrow ranging around it up to 2052.25 persisted for another hour.

Doesn’t seem interesting, I know. But considering the session had recovered from probing negative territory, maintaining the recover is actually pretty interesting. More so, the recovery came from pinting new lows for the ongoing decline, new lows that had satisfied the decline’s 2030.00 and 2035.00 objectives

Closing above at least 2056.00 would have been more interesting, confirming the decline has ended. Gapping up sufficiently Monday would serve by proxy, and be more capable of launching a recovery. Otherwise, resuming the decline could still hold a retest of Friday’s pre-open lows down to 2027.00 before suggesting the decline is extending.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be sent overnight, well ahead of the 9;30am ET start.