Market Wrap

Had Wednesday night’s rally to 2059.50 been done intraday, then all available buying pressure would have been expended without gaining traction for the effort. Pre-open action was attacking the morning’s 2055.50 bias-up target, and exceeding it post-open could have renewed the bias-up signal. Either of those setups could have marginalized sellers.

Neither of which prevents recovering from lower lows. But both suggest that lower lows are still coming. Gapping up Friday above Thursday’s highs, if not also its pre-open highs — similar to Thursday — could still reject the decline. Otherwise, trending down into and also possibly out of the weekend is likely.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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The morning’s choppiness didn’t resolve in the decline’s resumption. But neither did it resolve in the decline’s retracement. It just resolved in more choppiness.

That choppiness wasn’t without form, that being an inverted Head & Shoulders. Three of them actually, which doesn’t make any one of them any likelier to reverse the trend back up. But a blip-up held resistance at the noon hour’s 2047.75 high before reversing back into the range.

The late reversal didn’t extend back under a prior low which would have merited a hold-short. But the afternoon’s Head & Shoulders created a pivotal support trendline around 2043.00 whose break could resume the decline overnight. Otherwise, reversing the trend up requires immediately recovering 2057.50, and any shallower strength remains likely to resolve down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Closing above 2056.00 Tuesday could have undermined the morning’s break under it. Actually, closing above 2059.50 would have at least negated the downward momentum. Regardless, Tuesday’s close was at 2056.00, not being recovered, certainly not decisively. The retest of early-April’s consolidation is likely to give way.

Potential for another counter-trend bounce can’t be discounted, especially since 2056.00 was still being tested at Tuesday’s close. But unless Wednesday’s open were to gap up sufficiently to invalidate Tuesday’s break — similar to how Monday’s rally was invalidated — then the resolution is likely to be down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday afternoon was so predictable. It was so predictable, because Monday morning was not. Actually, Monday morning’s wide swings responded to calculable inflection points. But those tests never sustained a breakout in either direction.

So, Monday afternoon succeeded where the morning had failed. After struggling all morning to break free from its range, price action glided higher through the afternoon — almost effortlessly.

But did the afternoon rally gain traction for its effort? The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high. But the final hour’s entry and the 3:10-3:20 timing window only maintained. That’s enough for the burden of proof to be on sellers, but not enough to require higher highs.

Higher highs would target the 2080.25 area, and probably lead to retesting two-week old highs. Being so much potential upside, any bearish scenario is likely to be aggressive. So, shallow weakness is likely to resolve up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The week was greeted at 2086.00, and largely fluctuated around 2086.00, until Thursday afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing at 2086.00, and then the bottom dropped out.

Price action trended down only until Friday’s morning’s bias environment began lapsing. The afternoon bias environment’s retest was recovered before lapsing. And the final hour’s entry missed an opportunity to regain control. Strong-handed sponsorship would usually exploit that setup.

So, I’m already suspicious of the decline’s sponsorship being strong-handed. Now add to it that the bias environment’s high was recovered through the close, despite not already recovered into the final hour. The first development tends to prevent the other.

Closing above what had been “lower prior highs” at 2056.00 helps to undermine sellers. As does leaving no “unfinished business below” outstanding. But it was too late for buyers to gain traction, having exited the bias environment and entered the final hour within the noon hour’s range.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be emailed overnight.