Market Wrap

The series of higher lows and higher highs since Monday’s low may have come to an end. Thursday afternoon’s slide from 2093.50 fell 28 points into the close. A last-minute bounce from 2065.50 finished back above the 2067.00-2069.00 lower target under yesterday’s lows.

Testing 2067.00-2069.00 could still launch a new rally leg, so long the test held, and so long as the launch was done appropriately. RSIs did diverge negatively at the low, so there is no “unfinished business below.” And the sudden relentlessness of the afternoon’s slide actually makes it easier to retrace.

But the afternoon’s downtrend remains intact. The afternoon’s sellers gained traction — they’ve already been well-rewarded, so gapping up above the bias environment’s 2088.00 high could invert that traction. Otherwise, Friday’s only other bullish bounce potential is from an early test of 2056.50. Yikes.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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Wednesday’s 3:10-3:20 timing window trended up to fresh session highs. This confirms the rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour’s highs. And that makes Thursday morning likely to trend higher. It can be inverted by triggering any bearish setup at Thursday’s open.

Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the morning’s 2076.25 low. Its retest is the only “unfinished business below” left outstanding. It had come within 3 ticks of the bias-down target, and the morning’s bias environment exit was recovering its 2081.00 bias-down signal. So, the detour was earned. But the detour won’t last forever.

Closing Wednesday above 2091.00 — and not just overlapping it — would have helped to maintain the afternoon rally’s momentum (closing above 2095.00 would have been optimal). Having gained traction Wednesday afternoon, resuming the rally doesn’t require gapping up — but it would be helpful to confirming fresh highs targeting 2110.00 remain in-play.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

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Tuesday afternoon’s narrow ranging unfortunately fulfilled expectations that volatility would become inhibited ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings. Fortunately, that range included session lows, which were retested by a blip-down. Its recovery back into the range nearly flat-lined around 2084.50 until a last-minute spike up at the close to 2089.00.

The spike up was literally last-minute, certainly too late to be predictive. Too late to trigger a signal like Monday afternoon’s rally had tried to announce, for extending higher overnight and through Tuesday’s open.

No traction was gained again Tuesday, once again requiring Wednesday’s open to gap if it intends to trend intraday. Even then, there is no trending to resume, so gapping must extend quickly to avoid reversing back into the range. Already having chipped away at resistance, gapping up to retest 2091.00 would be more reliable for extending higher. Otherwise, fresh lows would target 2067.00-2069.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The vulnerability to fresh session highs never materialized. At least, not in time to be reliable enough for a hold-long. Monday’s last-minute surge offered a glimpse of the seemingly relentless surge, albeit only to probe above the morning’s 2080.50 high.

Delaying the recovery has created “ineffectual pessimism” from Monday’s session. Gapping down, probing fresh lows, and spending the entire session in negative territory is pessimism. Not closing under a prior low is ineffectual. The upside vulnerability remains alive, now by the proxy of gapping up Tuesday — i.e. trending up overnight.

Monday afternoon’s rally didn’t gain traction, so resuming the rally Tuesday — the rally that had peaked last Wednesday — requires gapping up. Any further delay to resuming the rally should extend the decline, the decline that began last Wednesday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

This morning’s plunge was recovered throughout the afternoon. But it stopped short of touching Thursday afternoon’s highs. Pessimistically short. And that’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Unfinished business above left outstanding at 2092.00 can attract Monday’s open and extend it into a probe of fresh highs that tests 2110.00. Meanwhile, delaying an upleg would be attracted down to Friday’s oversold RSIs at 2075.00, and potentially lower to 2067.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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