Market Wrap

For all of Thursday’s twists and turns, it all took place in a relatively narrow range. Even narrower than Wednesday. And Wednesday had warned already that momentum was lapsing when buyers failed gain traction for their effort to produce a new trend high close. So, not gapping up Thursday prevented any rally from being durable.

That didn’t prevent probing fresh highs anyway. The pre-open high was reversed back into Wednesday’s range. Its intraday retest was reversed, too, after essentially fulfilling the next higher objective at 2082.25 to within 2-3 ticks.

So, no higher objectives were put into play. The only potential higher objective was essentially neutralized. And the afternoon was spent fluctuating narrowly around Wednesday’s high. To the degree that Thursday’s restraint or inhibition was due to expiration’s influence, expiration is likely to influence Friday’s price action.

And its influence Friday isn’t required to be restrained or inhibited. That should be interesting for the afternoon’s active bullish WedEX signal.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

A “new Globex trend extreme” at 2071.50 had created the requirement for its eventual intraday retest. It was met in an attack on 2074.00 as Wednesday morning’s bias environment began lapsing.

A new trend high close two Fridays ago at 2065.00 had created the requirement for another eventual new trend high close. This was satisfied along the way to 2077.00.

The next higher objective above 2073.00 is 2082.25. Not a requirement, but an attraction. And it’s likely to be met — even if only overnight to establish another new Globex trend extreme, or after a gap down Thursday is recovered.

There is otherwise no unfinished business above, other than the ongoing rally likely to print new highs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here. [SPECIAL NOTE: Charts will be unavailable between 6:30-8:30 ET tonight.]

Tuesday morning’s surprises weren’t surprising. We expected the 2041.50 bias-up signal to hold its test and trigger no-bias, and we expected its reaction down to hold a test of 2034.00-2035.00. Both were probed by a couple of points, but they held.

Tuesday afternoon’s lack of surprises was surprising. Invalidating the attractions below only extended higher, and did not reverse intraday direction again.

A late dip from 2058.50 pierced the noon hour’s range down to 2052.00. But it was too late for sellers to gain traction, and it was not aggressive as the pattern allows at this stage. So it’s possible that a new upleg is about to begin, and gapping up Wednesday would be credible for launching it.

Of course, we’re still in the ongoing trading range, which has repeatedly greeted each session with a different picture than was left at the prior close. Not already trending up at Wednesday’s open could find sellers back in control.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” was neutralized, filling the gap from Friday’s 2040.75 close back down to the 2039.00 area. And lower, to 2033.50, despite sellers not having gained traction — the bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s high and the final hour’s entry was no lower. Extending the decline Tuesday morning must begin by gapping down, or else be likely to recover any lower low, if not also launch a recovery.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s reversal down could have been a lot more destructive. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment beyond all other intraday timing window extremes tends to extend in that direction through the close.

But Friday afternoon’s bias environment was AT the 2038.00 prior extremes. Even the 3:10-3:20 timing window’s downward bias avoided actually trending down under 2034.00. Selling pressure was expended, but didn’t gain traction.

Reacting up to 2040.75 into the close also didn’t gain traction. Either end of the week-long range could be tested next. And either end could be probed without extending in that direction. Several specific parameters will help to signal which attraction is dominant, and I’ll describe them at this weekend’s Saturday Review.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

[I’ll email the Saturday Review link overnight.]