Market Wrap

Thursday’s final hour 10-point bounce from 2026.00 fulfilled its corrective bounce objective. Extending higher through the cash session close attacked the afternoon’s 2038.00 bias-down signal, which didn’t require being retraced.

2038.00 held as resistance. No prior high was recovered. Sellers gained traction into the bias environment’s exit and final hour’s entry. The trend remains down.

Thursday’s close was testing last Friday’s 2038.25 interim low as resistance. Overlapping it, not recovering it. But so long as 2040.75 isn’t recovered, the trend remains down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s open held a test of the morning’s  2035.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2044.50 bias-up signal. Probing above it during the no-bias environment is called “no-bias trending,” which is doomed to failure. Eventually. Historically.

That didn’t prevent extending higher Wednesday, up to 2060.50. That’s not a little.

No-bias trending isn’t extremely rare. Not retracing no-bias trending the same day is rarer, and anything rare is uncomfortable. So, extending sharply higher is frustrating. And it’s certainly not what the opening action had suggested by trending down productively — before holding a test of the bias-down signal at 10:15.

Context on top of context is telling us the one-day rally is temporary. It neutralized the attraction above back to Monday’s close. The two-day decline preceding it was contained entirely within Friday’s range. And Wednesday’s rally is contained entirely within the two-day decline preceding it.

None of which prevents a fresh high. A retest of Sunday night’s “new Globex trend extreme.” A new trend high close that satisfies Friday’s new trend high close requiring at least one more. But that context on top of context is telling us that neutralizing the attractions above, before completing a correction below, could resolve in a downtrend much more destructive than just a correction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday afternoon missed two opportunities for rallying out of the range and up to safety. Not that a dip couldn’t have developed, but Tuesday’s range could have served as support to launch a bigger rally.

Now Tuesday’s range can serve the inverse purpose. Rather than offer a safety net below, now bouncing from a break lower would be as difficult to recover. Gapping up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2046.00 high may be the only bullish scenario.

Not that a break lower will try recovering soon. As much time as was spent consolidating Tuesday, the late return to session lows has no reason to delay extending down. The attraction to 2032.50 can restart the decline, next targeting 2021.00-2022.00 and 2009.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday afternoon’s 2057.75 bias-down signal was probed during the no-bias environment down by 3 points. Bouncing into the final hour was reversed to retest the low by another 3 ticks. The close settled back at 2057.75.

Even in the final minutes, sellers gained no traction for their effort. That could have been a completed correction, if only the lows had tested relevant support during its no-bias trending. Instead, selling pressure wasn’t impressive enough to suggest that buyers were more impressive to have absorbed it.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

New trend high closes on Friday all but ensure another eventual higher close before becoming vulnerable to a durable downtrend. It doesn’t prevent an immediate pullback, but the pullback would likely be temporary.

Friday’s new trend high close did start to fulfill the next higher upside objective at 2067.00-2068.00 which would have been in-play Wednesday afternoon had its rally resumed.

Friday’s new trend high close was overlapping Wednesday’s prior high enough not to qualify as a breakout. That would have been bullish separately had Monday closed higher. But now closing higher Monday wouldn’t be any more bullish.

2056.00 was recovered through a close, which starts to suggest a new rally leg underway — not simply a single higher close. This would be undermined by only ranging Monday around last week’s highs.

Meanwhile, 2048.75 is “unfinished business below.” It must be retested for having been Friday morning’s bias-down signal, which was triggered late. But its retest is not required on any particular timetable.

I’ll send the link overnight to this weekend’s Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.