Market Wrap

Tuesday’s probe under 1865.00-1868.00 wasn’t recovered until after entering the final hour. That didn’t prevent bouncing further. In fact, that bounce extended to test 1881.00 resistance. But delaying the recovery did tell us that the bounce would be only temporary.

Closing above 1865.00-1868.00 did keep the door open to a bigger corrective bounce before resuming the decline. But not holding 1865.00-1868.00 through any relevant window would be expected at least to retest Friday’s 1849.50 low, if not also launch a new downleg.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Thursday’s stunning reversal had met a corrective bounce target in the 1910.00 area. Reacting down from 1913.25 to 1904.75 was recovered in time to trigger bias-up targeting 1921.00 — it was extended higher to test 1927.25.

Then it was all reversed. The cash session’s last half-hour dropped to 1911.00. That has drifted lower into the night, now probing under 1904.75 by more than 2 points.

That’s trying to contradict that yesterday’s recovery gained traction for its effort. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high, and the final hour was entered even higher. Friday morning should reward them by trending higher.

Traction, or not, this is expiration. Traction can be negated by gapping down under a prior relevant low — and not immediately rejecting the gap down. That potential to reverse down can’t be dismissed despite Thursday’s recovery.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The retest of Sunday’s 1993.50 low had targeted 1881.00. Monday’s retest of it by 1 point launched a detour to 1946.50. But 1881.00 was tested Wednesday down to 1878.00. And a late-afternoon bounce to 1895.50 was retraced back down to 1881.00

So, now what?

The decline is especially vulnerable to dropping dozens of points more, whether overnight or at Thursday’s open. Bouncing first would likely be temporary, as there is “unfinished business below” at the low’s oversold RSIs. Bouncing first Thursday is possible, but probably not gapping up enough to negate Wednesday’s bearish WedEX isn’t likely.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. (Or scroll down in the blog.)

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday afternoon’s short-squeeze setup wasn’t exploited immediately. But it was exploited thoroughly. Fresh lows testing 1907.00-1912.00 support were isolated to the bias environment, and the final hour was entered above the ~1919.50 bias environment highs. But it was the 3:10-3:20 window that surged.

The 3:10-3:20 window surging to fresh highs also confirmed the traction gained by entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high. Although vulnerable to inverting down, Wednesday morning is due to reward Tuesday’s rally for having gained traction.

Inverting down must be signaled. But the signal is made possible by Tuesday afternoon’s rally having met and held resistance at 1933.50. A catalyst has already appeared, with Iran capturing US sailors.The reaction down is already testing 1922.00.

Rejecting the short-squeeze’s recovery would put into play a retest of the lows down to 1881.00-1885.00. There’s no bearish reason to probe any higher first, which would next target 1948.00, potentially also 1975.00 and 1985.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The 18-point bounce from retesting overnight lows had held its 1910.00 resistance. It had retraced down to 1897.00 — 4-1/2 points back to the low. Sellers had not gained traction since the bias environment was exited within the noon hour’s range, and the final hour was entered there, too.

But that didn’t precluded extending down. And it didn’t enable a bounce. A big, humongous bounce.

Yet, that’s what followed. The timing was not appropriate for strong-handed sponsorship, but a 26-point rally touched 1923.00. That’s positive territory. Or, it was. A reaction down into the close ended the day flat.

It seems like success for a bottoming attempt — probe a new low, and recover its retest. But timing is everything, timing like origins and closes, and they suggest the decline has chipped away at support more than formed a base.

Nevertheless, neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts. So, gapping open either way Tuesday could be credible for extending in that direction intraday — whether above 1933.50 or 1943.50, or under 1899.00 or 1894.50.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.