Market Wrap

Unfinished business below at 1921.00 was met. The delay was compensated by extending to 1912.00, probing it by only a couple of points when there was potential for 1907.00. Optimism?

The break under prior lows to satisfy 1921.00 waited until the last half-hour. Optimism?

Post-open action didn’t extend higher, but it did gap up. And that was after probing substantially into positive territory overnight, greeting the Payrolls report firming, and then reacting up to the number. Optimism.

Friday’s late break lower originated too late to confirm that optimism is dead.  But it’s an ugly close, anyway. Other than China possibly bottoming already, it’s difficult to imagine Europe’s opens not immediately discounting what has developed since their close.

Join us for the Saturday Review to game the possible paths for Sunday night and Monday’s opens.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

All of Thursday morning’s rally from its 1945.00 low up to 1969.00 was retraced before entering the afternoon bias environment. The 1931.00 overnight lows were retraced entirely, too. But that last bit came after the 3:10-3:20 timing window.

Sellers are still hesitant. Still reluctant. Optimism isn’t necessarily alive AND well, but it’s alive. And that’s still bearish from a contrarian perspective.

Greeting Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report even more optimistically can’t be discounted. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction can’t be discounted. But there’s about 15 points of room for noise above Thursday’s close to 1948.00-1951.00 without even beginning to reverse the trend up.

And there’s a whole weekend of illiquidity just several hours following the news.

The next lower likely support is at 1907.00-1912.00. But the market still isn’t tracking any recovery template, and this is all in the context of presumably duplicating and magnifying August’s plunge.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s last hour bounced. Sharply. Its 14-point rally from a fresh low at 1970.50 retested the afternoon’s 1984.25 bias-down signal as resistance. Of course, the 45 minutes before it had fallen from 1988.00.

During that late fall, the bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, and the final hour was entered lower. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, likely to be rewarded Thursday morning by probing under Wednesday’s low.

Extending higher into and out of Wednesday’s close did attack the prior high to within a couple of ticks. Too late, though to gain traction for its effort. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 1995.00-1998.00 highs could invert the decline’s traction, instead.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Ending the day with a whimper has made Wednesday likely to bang. Tuesday’s last half-hour firmed gradually into the 2008.00-2010.00 resistance range, which is equilibrium. Including overnight action, trending in either direction is likely to be reversed once in the opposite direction. Completing that sequence would then become vulnerable to a more durable trend gaining traction.

Wednesday’s open is likely to gap, but not very far away from Tuesday’s range — still within its magnetic attraction to pull price back into and through Tuesday’s range. Gapping much beyond Tuesday’s range could break free of its orbit to simply trend in that direction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s last half-hour recovered from 1984.00 to the afternoon’s 1996.00-1997.00 resistance, with almost 15 minutes to spare. That time was fully exploited by extending to 2005.00 at the cash session close. Not to be excluded, the futures close added almost 5 points more to attack 2010.00.

Fresh afternoon lows were being probed into the final hour. The decline from 1996.00 to 1984.00 was tracking a template for buyers “throwing in the towel.” And then they ran out of towels.

No “unfinished business below” was in-play to inhibit a rally, but there was nothing accumulative about the low. And the late surge did more than retrace a downleg. Meanwhile, a lot of buying pressure was expended — only to test the 2008.00-2010.00 area, which we discussed selling if tested initially at the open.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E952DF83894C31

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.