Market Wrap

Well, that was a fun ride, good the last drop. The bounce from 2037.00 to almost 2055.00 was retraced and reversed to almost 2030.00. If that’s the product of day-end, week-end, and year-end low volume influences, then Monday’s open should gap up very much away from the late low. A post-close bounce back up to 2037.00 made that easier. Not gapping up on Monday, with volume expanding, would likely trend down a lot. An even funner ride!

Have a safe and happy New Year’s!

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:

ilinc/Mitel*   || Anymeeting MP4

*We’re ending ilinc/Mitel, so the recording access may not be available.

Wednesday’s last half-hour finally probed under what had been the the morning’s 2061.50 bias-down target. It didn’t require a break, but a Descending Triangle had formed since buyers couldn’t produce a higher high.

That pattern, the break’s late timing, and impending three-day weekend, all combined for a perfect storm that plunged down to 2053.50. A bounce attacked 2060.00 before reversing back down to the low. To within 1 tick.

Last Thursday’s “lower prior highs” around 2055.00 offer natural support. But not already reacting up intraday from its test does keep the door wide open to extending lower Thursday morning to 2044.00 or 2041.00. Meanwhile, having trended down into Wednesday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon’s 2065.50 highs would form a “session-long rally” setup.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc

Tuesday’s rally gained traction for its efforts — the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s range, and the final hour was entered higher. The 3:10-3:20 timing window didn’t have to trend higher, but tried, and failed. Reacting down helped to temper the emerging optimism before the close.

If Tuesday’s rally is rewarded by probing higher Wednesday morning, then it has potential up to 2091.25 and 2096.00, potentially on the way to 2102.00. A shallow opening dip would still be likely to recover and resume rallying during the afternoon. But dipping deeper than 2067.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc

(Please disregard any strange emails you received earlier, as my marketing person loaded the wrong mailer… Sorry!)

The afternoon’s bias environment wasn’t exited above the morning’s high, making further upside more difficult, if not unlikely. But buyers had barely tried to probe higher, so there wasn’t much failure deserving a bearish consequence. So, the balance of the session was contained within the afternoon bias environment’s range.

The afternoon bias environment had probed above the morning’s high, and failed. That was an unsuccessful effort. But it didn’t result in a probe under prior lows, or in any downleg. This keeps the door open to rallying Tuesday — unless sellers retake control immediately.

Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts Monday. So, gapping open in either direction would be credible for extending in that direction. Not gapping would be more difficult to extend before the afternoon.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhvptc

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc

What took a half-day to accomplish was erased within a half-hour.

Actually, it only took an hour — not counting the choppy morning bias environment. It started lapsing at 2054.00 where the session had opened. And it started trending until fulfilling all the upside potential to within 1 tick of 2060.00.

The last half-hour retraced it all back to 2054.00 within 3 minutes of the cash session close. The next 15 minutes extended down through the morning’s 2050.75 post-open low, attacking the 2049.00 overnight low to within 2 ticks.

The late plunge was spectacular, but otherwise meaningless. On a normal day, suddenly moving so steeply would be irrelevant, especially if only back within the range. Thursday is already holiday-shortened, and its morning low wasn’t probed until after the cash session close.

None of which requires this week’s trending to resume next week. But starting the week by reacting down would have a better chance at recovering. Meanwhile…

Have a wonderful holiday weekend — see you Sunday night!

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvwmws