Market Wrap

Wednesday’s late dip stopped within 1 point of its 2051.25 potential. The reaction recovered all but 1 tick back to the 2057.75 high. The high wasn’t touched, leaving outstanding the overbought RSIs there requiring a retest.

The RSIs retest is likely since sellers expended energy without gaining traction. That’s due to a post-close reaction down that came within 1 tick of fulfilling the 2051.25 potential. Also, buyers gained traction for their efforts (I’m giving them a benefit of the doubt on the bias environment exit and final hour entry trending up.)

Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s 2048.00 low could form a “session-long decline” setup. But Thursday being a half-session can also be a wild card with the most reliable of setups.

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Buyers gained traction for Tuesday’s efforts. The 2027.75 bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s 2025.00 high and the 3:10-3:20 window trended up to fresh highs (a proxy for the final hour’s entry not clearly probing above the bias environment’s 2029.25 high). Their reward is to probe fresh highs through Wednesday morning’s bias environment.

Already probing higher overnight and rejecting it through Wednesday’s open could trigger the inverse. And having trended up into Tuesday’s close, gapping down under Wednesday afternoon’s low could form a “session-long decline” setup. Reversing down Wednesday is a risk because Tuesday’s high fulfilled its outside potential to 2035.00.

But higher highs are likelier for having closed above 2027.00 to avoid reversing the trend down. And seasonal bullishness can be influential — as if it isn’t already.

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Monday’s last surge got carried away with itself. Back above 1998.25 was already likely to end the afternoon’s slide from 2008.00. But the likely consequence was just gravitating up to 2006.00. Instead, the last half-hour trended up to 2012.00.

Post-close action surged to 2016.00.

New session highs were not likely. The morning’s range did hold as resistance. Without the late squeeze gaining traction for the effort, it only expended all available buying pressure. Retesting Friday’s 1991.00 low remains intact. More so, its retest should begin by gapping down to and through Monday’s lows.

Holiday seasonality is a wild card. There is time for a downdraft Tuesday before that seasonality tries to seal the lower-end of a range. And regardless of Monday closing at 2006.00, 2012.00 or 2016.00, retesting Friday’s 1991.00 range Tuesday is likely to begin by gapping down sharply. The alternative is to gap up above 2027.00.

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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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So, bearish WedEX was called onto the field after halftime, and ultimately controlled the 3rd quarter. It immediately drove price to a fresh session low at 2002.50, limited an afternoon bounce to 2014.50 to hold the noon hour highs, and then punished that effort with another new session low at 1998.50.

The 4th quarter performance should be fun.

That last drop to new lows satisfied the afternoon’s 2001.50 bias-down target that had been left outstanding. Its reaction up to “higher prior lows” was also reversed down to 1991.00.

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I’ll send the Saturday Review link overnight. It starts at 9:30am ET.

Not really “post” market wrap, as we held it an hour early and I am away from the screens through the close…

The afternoon’s bias environment missed a great opportunity to rally. Its no-bias was honored by hovering up at the 2050.50 bias-up signal without trending above it. But a dip to 2045.00 had developed when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. And another dip attacking 2043.00 came after the bias environment started lapsing.

Rallying into Thursday’s close wasn’t necessary to resume the rally Friday, just helpful. Not resuming the decline Thursday is helpful, too — it’s being attempted down to 2041.00, but holding here would allow this little dip to be considered “ineffectual pessimism.” Bullish, from a contrarian perspective.

The proof either way will appear soon. The bullish WedEX wasn’t invalidated, so it is only at risk of being inverted by downtrending through Friday’s open. And that would likely take all upside off the table for awhile.

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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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