Market Wrap

Wednesday’s high ultimately reached 2068.75. The close dipped modestly to 2064.75. Every prior high that was tested along the way was recovered — no prior high’s test was rejected. After two consecutive trending days, that is a bullish WedEX.

Probing a prior high and closing back under it would have formed a passively bearish WedEX. That signal could be sent by proxy, gapping down Thursday under two prior highs.

A little bit of how that effects the bigger picture, along with other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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There’s no requirement for even a corrective bounce to reach 2052.00. But testing it before Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement could find all available buying pressure has been expended, leaving the market vulnerable to another downdraft.

That’s already a risk from Tuesday’s bounce having tested and (ultimately) held its 2040.00-2041.50 objective, rejecting its intraday probe up to 2046.00. Price action like the afternoon’s corrective dip back down to 2032.00-2033.00 helps to neutralize that overbought condition.

But meanwhile, the Friday-Monday Island pattern must be revisited at some point. And there’s on assurance of it holding and launching a more durable recovery. So a durable recovery’s best hope is not to react negatively to Wednesday’s rate hike (or lack thereof).

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening when you can’t access the intraday chaRTroom platforms, here’s the OmniView link (we’re switching to it exclusively soon, so please confirm you can access it easily):
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Monday’s open could have recovered Friday afternoon’s last relative high at 2015.25 and reversed momentum up. That was 13 points above Friday’s close, but it was probed several time, by 4 points at one point.

Closing above 2015.25 would have at least signaled the decline ended, so that a bottom could form. A late break higher came within 3 points when it mattered. It was touched 3 minutes after that.

Despite preventing the morning’s slide from extending, buyers gained no traction for their effort. Monday’s buyers. Gapping up Tuesday above a prior high like 2022.50 would signal new sponsorship had arrived, targeting 2040.00. But gapping down under Monday afternoon’s 1997.00 low would form a “session-long decline, targeting nothing good.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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A new low close into the weekend is not impossible to recover from. But not immediately. Not durably. Not without doing more damage to the chart first. A bottom here would be considerable as unlikely as that seems. Meanwhile, the downleg seems vulnerable to extending since current news is so scary. Ever the contrarian.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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I’ll send links overnight to the Saturday Review.

Was it, or wasn’t it? Only its hairdresser knows for sure. Specifically, was Thursday’s last-hour 10-point plunge from 2058.50 the exacerbated reaction to a non-event (college campus shooter spotted)? Otherwise, it was rejecting the bias environment exit’s breakout above 2052.00 as being false.

The alternative to closing above 2052.00 was to close under 2040.00. But 2040.00 held its last-minute test. If the plunge will be reversed, then it will be reversed overnight to gap up Friday above its 2058.50 origin — forming a “session-long rally” setup. Only the slightest opening weakness would confirm the plunge is extending down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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