Market Wrap

Tuesday’s session is a different version of Friday. Probing of relevant support held, but wasn’t rejected. So, not gapping up Wednesday would be vulnerable to probing lower lows.

Friday and Tuesday differ from each other in two ways — the morning didn’t plunge this time, and the afternoon probed fresh session highs. But their similarities are more meaningful since both mornings were wide-ranging, and both afternoons waited until very late before probing fresh highs.

Neutralizing “unfinished business below” at Tuesday morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target would also likely retest Monday’s 2062.00 low. And that could launch a substantial rally. Otherwise, maintaining a sufficient gap up Wednesday could simply rally without the morning unpleasantness.

Wednesday is Veteran’s Day (U.S.) /Remembrance Day (Europe). Its solemness might be juxtaposed against a session that provides both volatility and trending, as the government holiday creates thinner participation.

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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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Monday’s least likely scenario was a last-hour rally. But entering the final hour at 2068.00 support only attacked 2065.00. That reacted up sharply into the position-squaring window, and through it, probing fresh afternoon highs at 2077.50.

The afternoon’s pattern had formed an Ascending Triangle up to 2072.00 capable of launching the final hour’s rally. But it broke lower instead, under 2068.00 down to 2065.00. That did not qualify as fulfilling the break, so rallying already was premature — this construct is what I’m referring to as an unstable base.

The final hour’s rally can resume Tuesday, if it extends higher overnight. The bias environment exit and final hour’s entry didn’t gain traction, so new sponsorship forcing a gap up is the only way to avoid probing under Monday’s 2062.00 low.

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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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Ultimately, Friday’s session ended while still testing 2088.00. Its recovery would have told us to be long for the start of a big ride to new highs. Closing under 2088.00 would have told us to expect a dip to the 2070.00 area, first. Still overlapping it at the close has instead forced us to be reactionary instead of proactive. If the rally wants to resume without delay, then Monday will gap up above Thursday’s highs. Otherwise, fresh lows come first.

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We’ll discuss more about the bigger picture and review stock requests at this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send its link overnight.

Thursday afternoon’s chop was a predictable product of anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. The influential news is being greeted from a pullback that held 2088.00 as support. This followed two consecutive closes above 2088.00 (and an interim session that avoided it altogether). If 2088.00‘s recovery is relevant, then Friday’s news reaction should resume rallying into the weekend. Otherwise, breaking back under 2088.00 would signal a deeper drop underway — still probably just a detour on the way to temporarily probing new highs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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The afternoon bias environment’s bounce failed to invalidate its 2088.25 bias-down target. Not for lack of trying. Each successively higher requirement was challenged — 2093.50, 2097.25, 2100.50 — but not recovered through a relevant timing window. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower.

2088.25 can be met overnight, and Thursday’s open can be greeted in recovery mode. Overbought RSIs at Tuesday’s 2110.25 high still require a retest, probably up to 2113.00 or 2117.00. Or higher, having pulled back already on Wednesday instead of first neutralizing the attraction above.

Regardless of the overnight low, not gapping up would suggest Wednesday’s pullback is bleeding into Thursday. The rally has entrenched its objective at new highs, and shouldn’t close under 2088.00 more than once, if at all.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc