Market Wrap

Tuesday’s reaction down from its 2110.25 bias-up target had potential down to 2102.00. It was probed by 5 ticks. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were left outstanding at the high requiring its retest. And two consecutive relentless intraday rallies have conditioned the market, so an overnight pullback might be avoided.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc

Monday’s final hour entry at 2098.50 was a relevant high. It was the product of errant ticks, its RSIs were overbought, and it immediately reacted down, and its pullback limit was almost violated. Then it was exceeded.

RSIs were overbought at the 2100.00 higher high, too.Its pullback limit was violated on the second probe under it. The cash session close dipped to 2096.00, and post-close action slipped further to 2094.00.

Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest, although RSIs were making lower highs. Buyers gaining traction suggests the high will be probed, as a reward for exiting the bias environment and entering the final hour at successively higher highs. Closing above 2088.00 puts into play new highs above 2134.00, so long as Tuesday doesn’t close back under 2088.00.

None of which requires extending higher without delay. But a dip must be deep — whether begun immediately or after initially rallying — if new highs are going to be avoided. As usual for this rally leg, a real durable reversal down would likely begin abruptly and aggressively. Any less initial bearishness would be likelier to resolve higher.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc

Friday morning’s 2075.50 bias-down target had become “unfinished business below.” It was fulfilled going into the final hour, and held 1-2 more tests during the final hour. Then a last-minute plunge broke lower to 2070.00.

The last-minute plunge is not predictive, since it originated after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close (3:57 ET). The plunge was deep, but it was singular, and it was still overlapping 2075.50 instead of breaking it.

Retesting Thursday night’s 2094.75 high all but requires immediately rejecting Friday’s last-minute plunge Monday. Having fulfilled the rally’s 2088.00 objective without closing above it, probing above its resistance would be vulnerable to holding again. Not immediately rejecting Friday’s last-minute plunge could get November off to a rocky start.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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I’ll send links to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.

Market Wrap was held a half-hour early Thursday and I was unavailable at the close. The bias environment exit and final hour entry had not indicated any sponsorship was gaining traction. The vulnerability remained to the upside anyway, and the last hour rallied from 2079.00 to probe at least 2 points above the morning’s 2084.50 high. And to well within 2 points of the rally’s 2088.00 objective. Late rally and all but neutralizing a big attraction, without having gained traction. Friday should be fun.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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[And here’s the link to Thursday’s pre-market Tour recording]

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc

Wednesday’s two shallow pullbacks at the open and during the noon hour reflected excessive optimism. Their interim rally had triggered bias-up and fulfilled it, but extended higher anyway. It doesn’t get much more optimistic than that.

Maybe a little bit more optimistic. A 6-point surge into the FOMC news touched a fresh high at 2079.00. Suddenly all of that optimism was sorely missed, just when it was needed most. Price plunged easily to fresh session lows at 2055.50. One brief, deep correction doesn’t offset excessive optimism, but it helps. And the balance of the session rallied to new highs at 2085.25.

Last Thursday’s confirmed breakout required an eventual third higher close. That’s now done. The rally’s next higher objective after closing above 2055.00 was 2088.00. That’s not done. But now testing 2088.00 intraday can reverse down durably intraday, without leaving unfinished business above.

There’s no requirement for 2088.00 to be touched, or for its touch to reverse down immediately, if at all. But there is no other “unfinished business above” in-play. It is being attacked by excessive optimism. And a lot of energy was just expended intraday in order to absorb a lot of selling pressure. The rally’s sponsorship is weak-handed and vulnerable.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbtpxj

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc