Market Wrap

Wednesday night’s relentless downtrending to test 2729.00 was relatively shallow. But it still formed a common setup that is vulnerable to forming a substantive low. That could have developed during the open, but for Trump/China trade tweet that triggered a spike up to 2741.00.

The spike was retraced almost as quickly as it had developed, and continued lower to attack 2723.00. Exiting the bias environment back above its entry isolated the lower probe. The delayed effect was the same, launching a rally up to 2754.50, probing 2-week old highs.

The final hour’s dip retraced back under the noon hour’s 2742.00 high and tested the afternoon bias environment’s 2738.00 low. Closing any lower would have invalidated the traction gained by having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. Retesting Thursday’s high is likely Friday morning — if not also trending above it — so long as a deeper pullback is avoided, or at least erased before the open. Extending the rally would next target 2768.00-2770.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Almost literally exploding higher post-open Wednesday would have made the morning likely to trend up, and for that to be the result of a durable bottom. The alternative was backing-and-filling, which was the resolution to not extending higher from gapping up. Which didn’t prevent exploding higher later — reflecting the same market conditions as were suspected at the open, but not assuring a particular resolution.

The short-squeeze into the close rallied 20 points up to 2745.00 during the final hour. This attacked the 1-2 week old highs, now likely at least to be probed. Regardless of that, reversing down would essentially target “lower prior highs” at 2707.00, holding its test to maintain the rally’s traction. Just extending higher is no less possible than was Wednesday’s final hour surge.

Confidence that a bottom is forming isn’t nearly is high as if the explosion weren’t delayed past the open. But the burden of proof remains on sellers, or else the trend remains up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Especially volatile overnight action preceded Tuesday’s open. None of which reversed momentum down and only chipped away at resistance. Two overnight dips to 2655.00 were interrupted by a spike up to 2684.00, which the session climbed back up to eventually attack within 1-3 ticks. The morning’s rejection of both bias-down parameters had put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, one still outstanding at 2686.00.

Coiling and restrained optimism in probing above Monday’s highs suggest almost literally exploding higher if the rally’s extension is valid. Subdued gains would suggest instead a rubber band stretching, before it snaps back down. And there’s no longer room down to 2660.00, which has become too chipped away to prevent trending lower.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Sunday night’s rally from Friday’s 2628.00 close had extended up to 2666.00. Its correction down to 2655.00 was recovered and extended through Monday’s first half-hour to attack 2672.00. Which held a test of Wednesday’s prior high to form a base.

That created a lot of room to absorb backing-and-filling. The 2652.50 noon hour low barely and briefly probed under the pre-open low, and held Wednesday’s lower-end. The post-open rally resumed until fulfilling its minimum objective of a fresh high attacking 2674.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the close extended to test 2676.00.

Trump comments immediately following the close triggered a blip down to 2668.00. Extending higher at all should almost literally explode higher. Extending higher above 2678.00 could become very exponential. There’s otherwise room back down to the 2660.00 area before even suggesting the near-term upside is delayed, and then well under Monday’s intraday lows before reversing the trend back down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday was essentially another inside day compared to Tuesday, ranging exclusively under Wednesday’s other inside day.

Any other session would have considered this to be bearish, and closing at intraday lows would have been a compelling hold-short, especially for still not rallying out of the 2635.00 test.

But lower participation undermines that predictability. So, the late 13-point slide back to and through the 2631.00 open didn’t qualify for a hold-short. Any delay in recovering Monday makes a retest of the recent 2603.00 likelier.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW DUE TO THE HOLIDAY.
chaRTroom will re-open at 6:00 pm ET Sunday with Globex.