Market Wrap

Rallying overnight up to 2667.00 was nonetheless contained entirely within Tuesday’s range. Wednesday’s session would go on to be an “inside day,” as well. Gapping up dipped immediately to within 2 ticks of the morning’s 2650.50 bias-up signal, then snapped back up to 2666.00. Its bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, but that didn’t prevent testing its renewed bias-up target up to 2671.25 as the morning bias environment began lapsing.

Not bad, from the earlier 2632.25 Globex low. Yet, all still an inside day. Lower lows through the close tested and held support at the 2647.75-2648.50 61.8% retracement between Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s gap up, natural support.

The afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, but it did serve as the afternoon’s support to a narrowing range. The proxy window finally cratered, extending down through the position-squaring window to retest the open’s attack on 2650.50. All still an inside day.

There’s nothing predictive about Wednesday’s price action. Less so about Friday, which closes early and is surrounded by days off. The chaRTroom will remain open — have a  Happy Thanksgiving…

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Is it over? At least, for now, has the 2-day 116-point drop found a low? That’s 1,100 Dow points, all from Friday’s noon hour high to Tuesday afternoon’s retest of the morning’s lows. NDX didn’t retest its morning’s lows, so could the Tech wrecks be done?

Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness tends to step in by Wednesday. Often, that follows a downleg to some degree that got rid of its selling pressure just before then. Did this year’s jumbo-sized drop break through the normal rubber band stretch, and break the band’s elasticity altogether?

Closing back above the decline’s next two lower targets at 2635.00 and 2654.00 would have at least robbed sellers of their traction. Both were tested Tuesday morning. Both were recovered before Tuesday’s noon hour. And both almost failed into Tuesday’s close. Both, almost, because 2654.00 wasn’t recovered, while the afternoon range was still utilizing 2635.00 as support.

Now, trying to rally would face resistance at 2678.00. Its immediate recovery Wednesday could isolate Tuesday’s session and allow a bigger bounce. But reversing the trend up must recover Monday afternoon’s 2703.50 high — it’s likely to hold any test through the close, unless gapping above it which isn’t likely.

Resuming the decline Wednesday would next target the 2603.00 prior low. A “V” bottom there would could bounce into the holiday, but would be doomed to failure. A more considered and extensive retest would probably hold, but could still resolve down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s open was greeted back down at the 2729.00 earlier Globex low, after having probed most of Friday’s prior highs. Extending down through the open would have been bearish. The open held up, but didn’t reject the test. The morning resolved down anyway. The WedEX’s nominally bearish influence from Friday was followed by an aggressive morning-long decline into the 2686.50 noon hour low.

A reverse / expanding triangle began forming through the afternoon bias environment, its resistance tested twice at 2698.00, and its third low being 2691.50. No traction was gained, and the proxy window’s attempt to reverse up barely held before reversing back down to the noon hour’s 2686.50 low.

To the extent that the Globex-flip is influential, failing to recover Monday morning’s decline suggests it will extend down through Tuesday morning, too. The next lower major objective is 2754.25. Otherwise, back above 2706.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, last Thursday’s potential bottoming pattern is desperately in need of further confirmation by closing above a prior high.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s open recovered from an overnight slide, and probed above Thursday’s highs 2-3 times. The 2736.00 close was at or above Thursday’s highs to avoid rejecting or invalidating Thursday’s bottoming pattern. But Friday’s close did not qualify as confirmation that momentum has reversed up. Given that overnight sellers failed to exploit the opportunity of breaking under 2709.00, reversing up intraday to attack 2749.00 suggests that sellers are weak-handed. But further bullish behaviors are needed since that intraday surge also neutralized upside attractions without putting into play anything new. Meanwhile, still testing the afternoon bias environment’s 2736.00 entry wasn’t decisively bearish WedEX influence, but neither was it decisively rejected. So, any immediately bearish behavior Monday would still be credible for trending down aggressively through the morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.

Is that a bottom? Not yet. Possibly not at all. But possibly.

Thursday’s open was greeted by one of our setups, as a very late breakout had just left the overnight range. The overnight range’s wide double-digit swing might not have resembled a range, but it was had developed exclusively within Wednesday afternoon’s late range. And finally breaking beyond it within 30-60-90 minutes of the open tends to be false.

Like the overnight range, the false breakout was very productive. Wednesday’s attack on the decline’s 2685.00-2686.00 objective was probed by an attack on 2671.00. Which reacted back up to 2711.00. Its noon hour correction could have become another downleg, but held to resume the recovery attacking 2737.00.

Wednesday had closed under the pre-election pullback’s low. A second consecutive lower close would have confirmed the trend extending down. There is a narrow window to leveraged that failed attempt into signaling the week-long pullback is reversing up. Which must become obvious Friday morning if the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence can be absorbed,

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.