Market Wrap

Isolating a session’s trending effort to only part of the day isn’t unusual. Isolating it to the same part of the day for several consecutive sessions isn’t impossible. That, and then each of those days behaving the same way during the rest of the sessions… unusual.

Yet Tuesday was the third consecutive session to trend throughout the morning. Or through most of the morning. Or, anyway, to confine trending to the morning, and to be defined by it. And it was the fourth consecutive afternoon to range sideways — defined as the morning bias window’s 11:30-noon exit defining the afternoon’s range. No traction is gained.

The go-and-stop action reflects common sponsorship. And that sponsorship has been pretty productive. But it’s running out of steam and into difficulty. Tuesday’s 2899.25 cash session close was flat with Monday’s high, and touching its 2906.25 bias-up target pre-open responded immediately to buying pressure being met.

Meanwhile, there’s still unfinished business above, in the overnight high being a “new Globex trend extreme.” And that’s likely to be tested up to 2909.00. All of which might be delayed by unfinished business below at 2892.25, which could easily be tested down to 2884.50 or 2880.25. And there’s little time to fit in a dip before the the 3-day holiday weekend’s bullish influence arrives.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Trending up from the open through the morning.What else is new. Not that this pattern has repeated daily, but it has been the likely path up when taken. Higher to a morning or noon peak, and then sideways through the close.

The pattern is no less vulnerable to reversing down from Monday’s 2898.00 cash session close than it was at Thursday and Friday’s closes. And a reversal down would likely track one of two paths — either already trending down overnight, or else blipping-up at the open into a Wile E. Coyote cliffhanger moment. Pullback objectives remain 2867.25-2869.50 if not also 2860.00-2861.50.

Not already trending down at Tuesday’s open or soon after it could instead resume the rally, which is essentially next targeting 2909.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s rally was impressive. Probing prior highs wasn’t surprising, as we were expecting the interim reaction down to be only temporary. Still, the rally did miss an opportunity to further entrench itself by closing at a new trend high on a Friday. That would have required at least another eventual new high close.

Another new high close is still possible, but not any more required than it would have been. Exiting the afternoon bias window entering the final hour within the prior timing window’s range failed to gain traction. But the rally can extend without delay Monday morning by gapping up.

A pullback first would have room down to Friday morning’s “lower prior highs” at 2868.50 before a more substantial decline might be underway. An immediate decline could be only a detour, or something more durable. Otherwise, higher objectives are coming into play. We’ll discuss their specifics at Saturday Review.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Look for the Saturday Review link in your morning email.

Sellers needed to control Thursday’s open if they were going to control the morning. They tried — dipping to the morning’s 2858.50 bias-down signal before the open — but that was rejected by the first hour’s surge to test the 2868.50 bias-up signal to its 2869.50 room for noise.

The next hour collapsed to fresh lows testing 2855.00. Was it an anomaly, or a detour, or refueling for the rally? It’s difficult applying any of those labels, when the entire session only ranged choppily at the lows.

A third consecutive session has left no unfinished business above. Thursday even tested and held what was unofficially in-play, an offsetting test of the morning’s bias-up signal. So, once again, trending up Friday morning beyond Thursday’s range would all but require gapping up. A lot. Meanwhile, avoiding a bounce of any sort Friday should begin by trending down into and/or out of the open.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s close was flat with Tuesday’s 2863.50 close, at least to within 3 ticks. That’s after Tuesday’s close was flat with its open, representing indecision, and classifying intraday price action as distribution.

Wednesday’s open was a little lower than 2863.50. Except for a momentary post-open dip, most of Wednesday’s session developed above 2863.50, making it distribution, too.

And there’s no “unfinished business” above. Again.

Which would be pretty bearish near-term, usually. However, Tuesday afternoon’s slide through the Globex open may have crowded out the organic sponsorship for reversing the trend down. Even the most bearish scenario would have to reward the dip’s buyers with fresh highs above 2874.00 before another downleg could be credible.

Already trending down into Thursday’s open, or reversing a gap up, would be vulnerable to extending down into the weekend. Otherwise, gapping up to and/or through Wednesday’s 2868.25 high would essentially put into play 2883.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.