Market Wrap

As of Tuesday’s close, there is no “unfinished business” above. As of Tuesday’s open, there was a 2-week old bias-up target at 2866.25 outstanding. And there was a likelihood for probing it up to 2873.00, potentially also to 2883.00. Tuesday’s gap up surged to 2866.25, and the noon hour tested 2873.00. That was also the bias-up signal, and it didn’t trigger. There is no unfinished business above.

Tuesday’s gap up to 2863.50 touched the 2-week old highs. Any higher would have required being tested from below in case the market decides to reverse down without delay. Similarly, Tuesday’s 2863.50 close is not above all prior highs, and won’t create a gap that want to be filled from below.

Speaking of both opening and closing at 2863.50. In the context of trending, that tends to represent indecision. The intraday probe of higher highs gained no traction for its effort. And speaking of traction, the bias environment exit was at or under the noon hour’s low, while the final hour was entered even lower. The setup has no requirements to extend, but not gapping up — or rallying without gapping up — would be likely to resolve down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s gap up created room to expend selling pressure without it reversing the trend down. Which the morning exploited, trending down in a series of lower lows and lower highs, while remaining in positive territory throughout. Entering the noon hour back at post-open highs fulfilled the bullish WedEX influence, and the traction Friday’s rally had gained.

Upside momentum remained intact, but obligatory resistance at the 2860.00 overnight high was influential, too. It was attacked, touched and pierced by narrow, flat-to-higher ranging that finally probed higher during the last half-hour.

Finally probing higher so late had already disqualified a hold-long. The likely gap up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first. I had just announced that in the chaRTroom when Trump comments triggered a shallow spike back into the range down to 2858.00.

The very late dip down had no effect on the less late probe up. Regardless, Friday’s high maintained its recovery upon coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. A dip to 2854.00 remains possible, and should hold if the rally intends to extend Tuesday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s bullish WedEX influence wasn’t responsible for the morning’s rally from its post-open dip to 2835.00, back up to 2848.25. The post-open dip to 2835.00 not triggering the 2836.75 bias-down signal enabled that reaction, despite not being a requirement.

After entering the afternoon’s bias environment on a pullback to 2841.00, recovering above 2844.50 would have fulfilled the bullish WedEX influence. Extending to fresh highs at 2857.00 was not a requirement.

The market certainly seems like it wants to trend higher. Especially when it trends higher than its setup requires. Also when it trends up despite a seemingly bearish sentiment. A lot of the latter is a reflected in FAANGs and NDX underperforming S&Ps, and more so the Dow, for a second consecutive session. That’s usually bearish in the near-term.

But probably too near, since expirations aren’t usually associated with trend extremes. Collapsing out of the weekend would likely recover quickly. And having peaked Friday upon testing “higher prior lows” from the prior week’s 2854.00-2863.00 consolidation, extending higher out of the weekend would likely gap up to and/or through its upper-end.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND… BIGGER PICTURE WAS REVIEWED IN THE MARKET WRAP VIDEO.

Thursday morning’s rally was likely to test 2841.00, potentially extend to 2846.00, and then probably correct. The rally tested 2846.00, extended to 2852.00, and then corrected. Perhaps the morning’s extra upside is responsible for a lack of afternoon buyers to resume the rally. Its correction down to 2838.50 was rejected by a last-minute surge through the close attacking 2846.00.

Even without the last-minute surge, Thursday’s prevailing uptrend wasn’t reversed by the afternoon’s downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. Neither did it resume. And buyers didn’t gain traction for the morning’s effort, since neither the bias environment exit nor the final hour’s entry recovered a prior high. So, trending higher without delay Friday all but requires gapping up, optimally above the afternoon’s 2849.50 high.

Thursday afternoon’s sellers also didn’t gain traction for their effort, since exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low was never confirmed by another window. But positive territory puts the burden of proof on buyers, so Friday morning (if not already overnight) could extend Thursday afternoon’s decline. Under 2835.50 could test 2826.00 before being unlikely to recover.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

First of all, Monday’s Isolation setup is invalidated. That’s mostly due to the overnight 20-point slide that greeted Wednesday’s open under Monday’s lows. Collapsing another 23 points through the open didn’t help. The morning’s drop never extended, despite being corrected through the noon hour back up to 2819.00.  That’s potentially “ineffectual optimism,” which keeps the door open to probing fresh lows Thursday down to 2802.00.

Meanwhile, the next lower objective held two tests intraday at 2808.00. That would have been more bullish had the afternoon’s retest also probed under the morning’s low before recovering. Which also keeps the door open to probing fresh lows Thursday down to 2802.00.

Wednesday’s last upleg attacking 2823.00 was triggered by a non-financial headline, so retracing to its 2811.00 origin is likely. That happened to be an active buy signal, but the artificial catalyst crowded out the organic sponsorship. Its attraction below could help to start a reversal down, which also keeps the door open to probing fresh lows Thursday down to 2802.00.

Friday’s confirmed breakout had required an eventual third lower close, which Wednesday narrowly delivered. That doesn’t care about any doors open below. The decline could still extend, but gapping up enough Thursday could launch a recovery leg.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.