Market Wrap

Testing the rally’s 2809.00 target Sunday night would have sufficed for fulfilling it, if Monday had reversed momentum down. But an intraday test of the target remained in-play otherwise. And potential for probing higher objectives at 2813.00-2816.75 remained intact, too.

But Monday’s closing action had narrowly avoided triggering a hold-short setup. So, Tuesday was no more likely to trend up than to reverse down. It reversed down, probably less from NFLX and AMZN technical glitches and much more so due to Fed Chair Powell’s day-one congressional testimony. (NFLX and AMZN recovering intraday didn’t hurt, although NFLX bounced only to its resistance at the sell signal identified during this weekend’s Saturday Review.)

Speaking of the Fed… Day-two of the Fed Chair’s congressional testimony rarely duplicates day-one. Comments are already discounted by the second day, including anticipation for the second day to follow-through. More often, the Fed Chair walks-back various comments that were misinterpreted or overly discounted.

Anyway, dipping overnight to within 2 ticks of the morning’s 2789.25 bias-down target got a lot of selling pressure out of the system. Recovering the bias-down signal in time to avoid triggering then put into play 2803.50. And triggering the afternoon’s bias-up put into play 2816.75.

The afternoon’s bias-up target was met to within 4 ticks at session highs, while at least 1-minute RSI diverged negatively. Its reaction down closed back under 2813.00. Closing under 2809.00 after probing 2813.00 would have reversed momentum down. It hasn’t, but probably will if the rally’s momentum isn’t restored immediately Wednesday. Which will be interesting as the WedEX setup forms into the close.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday morning’s drop was signaled by the Globex setup — at least remaining under bearish pressure through the morning. That wasn’t enough to trigger bias-down, which was probed repeatedly anyway throughout the morning. Recovering into the noon hour held natural resistance at unchanged instead of probing into positive territory. But sellers couldn’t exploit the recovery’s hesitation, and the afternoon’s reaction down only attacked the morning’s low. One more bounce stopped short of signaling a hold-long, so Tuesday morning remains open to either direction, requiring neither, but still vulnerable to extending the rally.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Thursday night’s rally to 2807.25 was retraced back into negative territory at 2795.50 overnight. And then price hovered, awaiting Friday’s open, postured to easily break under the 2797.00 earlier overnight low through the open. And the open was essentially right there, withing ticks of triggering a downtrend. But the opportunity wasn’t exploited. Neither was another opportunity, when fresh lows tested the 2793.50 bias-down signal. And that was it for sellers, with two failed attempts at reversing down. The consequence for an offsetting test of the morning’s 2804.00 bias-up signal was quickly fulfilled, and the balance of the session ranged sideways between 2801.00-2806.00.

The pre-open and post-open opportunities weren’t the only ones available for sellers to retake control. Either test of 2804.00 could have launched a downleg, too. Thursday night’s test had neutralized Thursday’s unfinished business above, and Friday morning’s test fulfilled the morning’s buying pressure. Not exploiting it already does make fresh highs a little likelier, especially with attractions outstanding at 2809.00 and 2813.00. But opening under Thursday’s close / Friday’s open would at least introduce a detour down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
SATURDAY REVIEW’S LINK WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 AM ET START.

Trending up throughout Wednesday night tested the 2787.75 intraday high at Thursday’s open. Trending back down from 2791.00 to 2782.75 throughout the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility created a position of weakness. Any rally it produces would be doomed to failure.

But not as of Thursday’s close, apparently. The overnight rally resumed and extended up to 2800.50 through the noon hour’s exit. The balance of the afternoon ranged sideways down to 2795.00 or several ticks lower. But not until the afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered late, leaving outstanding its 2804.00 bias-up target.

Thursday’s closing action was overlapping Tuesday’s 2797.75 highs, including a very last-minute surge that touched 2801.00. Its reaction down after the cash session close fell to 2795.50.

But just touching February’s 2800.75 high — the high of a rally that was later exceeded by the current high — has put into play a test of the 2809.00 and 2813.00 actual highs. That signal’s lateness in the day, and Thursday’s opening position of weakness, do keep the door open to a downdraft before extending higher.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s satisfied buying pressure and subsequent inertia had made a pullback likely. It also made the market vulnerable to overreacting to news. And news came after the close to trigger a 30-point plunge overnight to test 2766.00. Greeting Wednesday’s open 12 points higher eventually extended to attack 2788.00. But the balance of the morning retraced back down to the open, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. That included breaking lower during the very latest stage of the afternoon’s no-bias environment, which could have been forgiven for being no-bias trending. It was recovered anyway.

Having recovered the no-bias trending, the decline was free to resume after the bias environment lapsed. The dip’s recovery was also free to extend higher. An outage at the CME prevented the market from reacting normally. The overnight resolution should reveal the market’s intent, either gapping up above the afternoon’s 2782.50 high, or else breaking under the afternoon’s 2772.00 low.

Not gapping up Thursday maintains the likelihood for retesting Tuesday night’s low. A post-open dip Wednesday to 2768.50 could have neutralized the overnight low’s attraction, and launched a durable intraday rally. Influence at 2768.50 is still likely if tested, but likely to be only temporary on the way down to 2761.00-2762.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.