Market Wrap

[MARKET WRAP WAS HELD ONE HOUR EARLY, AND I WAS AWAY FOR THE FINAL HOUR]…

Tuesday’s gap up held small dips to its 2789.75 bias-up signal that defined the open’s low. Eventually rallying up to the morning’s 2797.50 bias-up target defined the morning’s high. And the session high, too.

At least, as of one hour before the close. But the bias environment lapsed within the noon hour’s range, and the final hour’s entry was still overlapping the bias environment high. The 3:10-3:20 proxy window must extend to fresh highs to gain traction. Otherwise, trending up is unlikely, and trending up anyway would be likely to fail.

Wednesday is free to extend higher, although there’s no momentum in place to require it. A pullback would be triggered under 2788.00, but that could also develop into something much more substantial. Opening and (presumably) closing at the opening level — at the new extreme of a multi-session trend — suggests that sponsorship is nearly finished.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s opening surge to 2779.00 trended back down ultimately through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But it held above the 2772.50 bias-up target — easily at 9:45, and barely at 9:30 — to prevent sellers from gaining traction. The 2777.25 renewed bias-up target had been met, but probing it again would have potential up to 2788.00.

2788.00 was met to within 3 ticks by a last-minute surge.

Having fulfilled buying pressure, backing-and-filling is likely. Although, less likely coming at day’s end than intraday. The target is essentially met, but wasn’t rejected before the close. Gapping up Tuesday wouldn’t be surprising. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2781.00 before suggesting the trend is already reversing down — and gapping open under 2781.00 could form a “session-long decline.”

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s wide swing had begun the night by gapping down back under Thursday’s last-minute surge to 2740.00.   That didn’t prevent probing higher anyway to 2747.50, which didn’t prevent retesting the earlier overnight low down to 2731.25. Which is a potentially bearish setup, rejecting an overnight trend high back under the earlier overnight low.

The setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. But it never fully formed, with the open testing the earlier low. So, it was never rejected. Which didn’t prevent Friday from behaving as bullishly as the setup would have been bearish.

Potential to the low 2760‘s was fulfilled at 2760.00-2761.00 by noon. The balance of the session fluctuated around it. But probing higher and higher (and higher) above 2761.00 to eventually test 2766.00 kept reacting back down under 2761.00. The last dip blipped-down to test 2757.00 during the position-squaring window, and snapped back up to attack 2764.00 into the close. Two-week old gaps and higher prior lows were tested from below, and held through the close to prevent putting any higher targets into play.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: NO WEEKEND REVIEW SATURDAY. CHARTROOM RE-OPENS 6 ET SUN.

There’s a lot of symmetry in the swings that comprise Thursday’s session.

Thursday’s gap up to 2729.50 was 6 points off of the pre-open high, and on its way down another 12-1/2 points to the session low at 2717.00. Still, rallying into and through the noon hour probed the pre-open high by 2 points up to 2737.50. The retest of overnight highs held, and held the range for noise.

Reacting down after the FOMC Minutes release fell another 12-1/2 points to 2725.00 and recovered entirely again. Then a last-minute push coming out of the position-squaring window got another 2 points higher to 2739.50.

All of which is still an inside day compared to Tuesday. So, Tuesday’s downside momentum has yet to be reversed. And having trended up into the close, gapping down Friday under Thursday afternoon’s 2725.00 low would form a “session-long decline.” Otherwise, there’s still a little room for noise above before suggesting the 2750s and maybe low 2760s are in-play.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Lower-end, meet upper-end. Turnabout is fair play. What’s good for the goose… Sometimes, the subject lines just write themselves.

Only a brief window of opportunity would allow Friday morning’s open to extend beyond the range’s upper-end. Otherwise, the session’s likeliest scenario was to range sideways. The strong second likeliest scenario was to trend away from the range’s extreme. The drop would target 2740.00, but with no assurance of fulfilling it before the close.

Most of a Head & Shoulders pattern had formed pre-open off of 2741.50, and the opening 15 minutes of volatility completed it. Price had all but reversed down, supported by the morning’s 2730.50 bias-up signal. The bias environment began lapsing, and the dip resumed.

The became relentless thanks to China retaliation headlines. Interim support was sliced through on the way down to 2712.00. Its reaction bounced to 2719.50 without violating the 2713.50 bounce limit, which the close was overlapping.

The close was also under 2718.00. A normal environment’s ongoing downtrend would have required closing back under it to offset Monday’s close above it. Closing back under it during the early close session, ahead of a closed session, still gets a benefit of the doubt. And still needs confirmation by extending down Thursday without delay, regardless of a possible bounce during the Globex holiday trading.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.