Mid-day Update

It’s 1:30. Do you know where your reversal is?

This morning’s bias environment eventually included a blip-down to 2287.25. As with all blips, it was retraced quickly back up within the range. Sellers did not gain traction.

The reaction up only pierced the bias environment’s 2290.75 high. But that was a higher high, which upset the post-open decline’s series of lower lows and lower highs. One exception does not make the rule, and a trend reversal still needs one more higher high above 2291.25.

Meanwhile, there has been no lower low. If the market is a rally tinderbox, and a higher high would be the match, then a fresh under 2287.25 low would be the rainstorm that prevents a rally from catching fire today.

Did they strike buyers?

This morning’s opening action warned early that it could become a dry cleaners morning. And when neither bias signal had been touched by 10:15, the balance of the morning edged its way back down to the open’s 2291.75 low.

2291.75 was also the overnight low, which held through the open to suggest that sellers weren’t going to retake control. That didn’t prevent piercing slightly lower during the noon hour, and then dipping to 2289.50.

But this afternoon’s 2290.75 bias-down signal did not trigger. It also didn’t hold. It was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. Sellers still haven’t taken control — digging deeper and deeper has been more an effort to attract strong-handed buyers.

Back above 2293.00 (being tested now) would suggest that the drop had dug deep enough. Rallying back to overnight highs would be likely. Otherwise, digging any deeper for sellers could need to dig steeper, too.

Noon hour rally rewarding its weak-handed sponsorship.

Not testing 2266.00 bias-up signal by 10:15 meant not rejecting it. And that meant no consequence of an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. It also meant not extending above 2266.00 during the no-bias environment. A probe above it was retraced as the bias environment began lapsing, and left no unfinished business below.

Now price has extended to fresh session highs into the noon hour. Into the noon hour, and out of it. Fresh session highs are attacking this afternoon’s 2275.25 bias-up target to within 2 ticks. And the bias signal doesn’t even trigger for another 5 minutes.

The series of higher highs and higher lows is forming a trend, so it’s premature to anticipate its reversal down. RSIs diverging negatively may be preparing for the trending to peak, but that doesn’t equate to a sell signal — which would be indicated by a reversal setup or topping pattern.

Originating after the bias environment lapsed is allowing the trend to persist intraday. Regardless, yesterday’s pattern considers this rally has premature because of the shallow open. Doomed to failure, or not, new highs and a new high close are possible today. But then so would be a relatively abrupt reaction down.

One target met, and not extending lower.

Two pieces of unfinished business below greeted today’s session. Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2253.00 required a retest, as does the prior week’s 2248.50 low.

This morning’s drop probed 2253.00 once down to 2251.75. No deeper, and for no longer. No lower objective was put into play. Not even 2248.50, although it wouldn’t have been unusual to extend down to it.

Not unusual, perhaps, but also not today, probably. The 2256.75 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, not even with the grace period. It also didn’t hold. Rather, it was still being overlapped to trigger noN-bias. A surge is now testing this morning’s 2261.50 bias-down signal as resistance.

Back under 2257.50 would start to suggest this surge is too late to gain traction, let alone to extend higher. The next lower objective under 2248.50 would be likely. Otherwise, there’s still room up to 2266.75 before signaling a bigger rally underway, targeting new highs.

Morning’s dip recovers only positive territory.

Narrow sideways ranging between 2267.50-2270.50 persisted into the noon hour. The bottom suddenly dropped out several minutes later. Two downlegs tested 2263.00 and 2260.00. Which held coming out of the noon hour.

The 2266.00 bias-down signal was being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30 to invoke the grace period. The 2260.75 bias-down target had been tested, before bouncing back up to 2266.00 — which was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30.

This is a noN-bias environment. Extending above 2268.00 would signal the rally was resuming, targeting fresh highs. Under 2263.25 would start to suggest drifting down into the weekend, targeting yesterday’s lows and then lower.