Mid-day Update

Morning reversal has settled into a range.

The reversal from 2259.50 ultimately touched this morning’s 2239.50 bias-up signal as support. That was back when the bias environment started lapsing at 11:30.

Its reaction up touched 2244.25 resistance, which reacted down to 2240.25 support. More than just support and resistance, these are buy and sell signals that would have extended 6 points if triggered. Neither was triggered, and the range persists.

Now the afternoon bias environment has triggered no-bias. The 2240.25-2244.25 signals remain intact. Delaying a recovery in this pattern tends instead to extend the decline. Probing either way would be credible for extending, but fresh lows is likelier.

Anyway, RSIs are oversold at this morning’s low. An attempt at neutralizing it stopped optimistically short by 1 tick from even touching it. The gap back down to Friday’s 2236.50 close can be filled, and if not held, then a deeper decline targeting 2215.00 can resume.

Extending the decline.

This morning’s dip wasn’t recognizing an air pocket. Instead, there was potential for a corrective bounce above 2239.50 targeting 2242.75. The target was met, and retested, and then the correction ended.

The entire bounce was retraced back down to its 2236.75 origin during the noon hour. Fresh lows extended down to fulfill “unfinished business below” at this morning’s 2235.25 bias-down target. Once again, there is no unfinished business below.

Not at this moment.

The 2237.25 bias-down signal is being overlapped at the 1:20 bias timing window, which invokes the grace period. Back under it at 1:30, and preferably also at fresh lows to compensate for the delay, would target 2232.00 and lower. Not triggering bias-down could establish a floor for the day, so the balance of the session could drift flat-to-higher.

Sliding through lower objectives and support.

Buyers expended a lot of effort this morning to avoid negative territory. The resulting isolation setup could have launched a multi-session rally. But it was never any more productive than simply to avoid negative territory.

And meanwhile, the 2248.75 bias-up signal held its test to avoid triggering. That put into play an offsetting test of the 2242.00 bias-down signal.

The isolation setup can still be effective. From testing 2242.00 and now the afternoon’s 2240.50 bias-down signal, which has extended down to 2239.50. The noon hour is allowed a little more room for noise. And the the noon hour dismiss the low’s oversold RSIs from requiring a retest.

Currently, a bounce is testing 2243.00 as resistance. The nearest buy signal would be triggered above 2244.50. Otherwise, triggering the 2240.50 bias-down signal may be much more productive than the bias-down target implies.

Another aggressive downleg.

Almost two hours were spent before the noon hour ranging relatively narrowly between 2254.00-2258.00. Finally breaking lower into noon quickly began probing under the morning’s 2253.25 bias-down target. It was easily exceeded down to the afternoon’s 2249.00 bias-down target. And even that was exceeded during the noon hour down to 2246.50.

The noon hour’s exit and the bias timing window officially exceeded the bias-down target. This would renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2243.50. But ranging at or under 2249.00 into the noon hour’s exit and the bias timing window deserves some skepticism.

The same template defines the same bullish scenario — that sellers have expended more energy than can be sustained, while fulfilling downside objectives. The template wasn’t fulfilled this morning because the bias-down target never held a test. This afternoon’s setup has the same chance or better. First, a buy signal must trigger, and the nearest one is 2250.00.

The original template otherwise remains in-play — that if the open were to put into play attractions below, then a multi-session decline will begin. Running its course too quickly — especially on Wednesday before a(nother) three-day holiday weekend — may be the only way to counteract the sudden sell-off.

Morning’s rally has been corrected.

After rallying this morning to 2269.50, the 2264.75 pullback target was met. Ninety minutes ago. Repeatedly piercing it by 1 tick — and by 1 errant tick — atill has room for noise down to 2263.50. That’s this afternoon’s bias-down signal, and it didn’t trigger.

Meanwhile, this morning’s pattern had been likely to test 2264.75. And the likely resolution resolution to its test is to resume the morning’s rally. Price has firmed to test 2266.00, and is free to accelerate its pace.

This being a no-bias environment, this afternoon’s 2270.00 bias-up signal should define the window’s upper-end if tested. Regardless, extending to retest the 2273.00 prior high would target 2275.50 and possibly 2278.25. There’s no bullish reason not to resume the rally coming out of the bias environment.