Mid-day Update

Trending requirement satisfied.

Overnight action as compared to yesterday’s intraday action had made this morning likely to trend. Either the probe under yesterday’s lows would be maintained and extend, or it would be rejected and reversed.

It wasn’t rejected. Also, clean bias-down didn’t trigger at 10:15. And bias-down still hadn’t triggered at 10:30. But that wasn’t necessarily bullish, and the drop extended to this morning’s 2252.25 bias-down target.

2252.25 was overlapped while being pierced by 3 ticks and never broke lower. The noon hour bounced, but only to within 3 ticks of this afternoon’s 2256.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment.

Resuming the decline would have room down to its 2250.50 bias-down signal through 2:30 — under 2249.50 would suggest 2243.00 is also in-play. Otherwise, recovering above 2256.00 as the bias environment starts lapsing would target fresh post-open highs, like 2262.00 or higher.

Hovering at fresh relative highs.

The overnight rally began with Europe’s opens triggering a break above 2262.00. It ended with the open’s surge up to 2269.50. That was the open. the balance of the morning worked its way back down to 2263.50.

Firming through the noon hour is retesting what had been this morning’s 2267.25 bias-up signal. Its resistance was obviously influential then, and it/s clearly influential now. Its test is also not reversing down.

RSIs are stuck and not reflecting any sponsorship. This hesitation isn’t so close to the 2273.00 high to be labeled “pessimism,” but it is bordering on being “complacency.” Still not rallying out of the bias environment would try attracting strong buyers below at 2260.50-2262.00.

Time growing short to avoid new downdraft.

Ultimately, this morning’s rally only attacked 2264.00. That’s still productive for the bullish WedEX. Negative territory was never touched, Friday’s highs were probed, and the rally was comprised of two aggressive uplegs.

It wasn’t influential enough to recover the 2260.25 bias-up signal by 10:15 to trigger it, or by 10:30 to invalidate no-bias — or to recover the 2267.25 bias-up target by 10:30. So, a test of this morning’s 2251.25 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.”

The WedEX influence lapsed with the morning bias environment. It is no longer influential. Triggering this afternoon’s 2261.00 bias-up signal would still be credible. Otherwise, back under 2257.50 would at least threaten the 2255.00 bias-down signal.

Selling persists as long as possible.

There was a greater vulnerability to probing lower this morning, despite it being a no-bias environment. And perhaps because of being a no-bias environment, its 2255.00 bias-down signal defined the window’s lower-end. Mostly.

2255.00 didn’t break until after coming to within view of the bias environment lapsing at 11:30. Touching support at 2252.00 reacted up to attack 2259.00 at noon. Trending back down through the noon hour fell to 2249.50 just before triggering bias-down. Its 2249.00 bias-down target need not be met any closer than the 2-3 ticks already attacking it.

Now the bullish WedEX influence should begin to dominate price action. The nearest buy signal is 2252.75 which is being tested now. The balance of the afternoon could retest the low — despite only 3-minute RSI being oversold at the low so it doesn’t require a retest — so long as any fresh low or pullback resolves up to a fresh high.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today’s post-market Wrap will be held a half-hour early, beginning at 3:33pm ET.

This morning’s rally had extended through its 2264.00 bias-up target to attack 2268.00. Failing to hold the 2265.50 pullback limit prevented extending to the next higher objective at 2270.00. Instead, a pullback into the noon hour has twice tested this afternoon’s 2260.25 bias-down signal.

And the signal’s support held. It’s being retested now.

Recovering 2264.00 would start to target a retest of this morning’s high. Extending to 2270.00 need not be delayed by the 2267.00 bias-up signal defining the window’s upper-end.

Back under 2261.25 (being tested now) could launch “no-bias trending,” probing under the 2060.25 bias-down signal despite this being a no-bias environment. Its recovery would be required, but meanwhile there would be room down to the 2254.25 bias-down target.